Scott Kennedy

Long-term horizon, dividend investing, mreits, bdcs
Scott Kennedy
Long-term horizon, dividend investing, mREITs, BDCs
Contributor since: 2013
Jan 29, 11:45 PM
Scott Kennedy
Update: Sold my $MAIN position today at $29.835 per share as my price target of $29.75 was surpassed (via TT). My w/a cost basis was $25.39.
Feb 1, 10:19 AM
Hi dalatinlJR, I appreciate the acknowledgement. Thanks for the positive comment.
Feb 1, 2:48 PM
nice call a gem on this one.
Jan 20, 1:11 PM
Scott Kennedy
Increased my position in $MAIN at $24.765, $ORC at $7.613, and $AGNCB at $22.675 per share. Will continue to selectively add in this market.
Jan 21, 12:39 AM
Well done Scott. I had already loaded up on ORC avg $8.50 and decided to hold off <$8. You will likely do well but stay alert for trouble.
Jan 14, 12:54 PM
Scott Kennedy
Update: Increased my $AGNCB position today at $23.285. Like the cautious play and the safety of the liquidation preference at $25. $AGNC
Jan 14, 12:55 PM
$AGNCB is currently yielding more than the Series A Preferred $AGNCP. $AGNC $NLY $CYS $ORC
Jan 14, 12:38 PM
Scott Kennedy
Update: Once again initiated a position in $MAIN today at a w/a price of $26.575 per share. Sector wide sell-off is a s-t panic. $PSEC $ARCC
Jan 14, 12:44 PM
You should feel guilty. Really like $STWD here also but need funds to free up. Stay low
Jan 15, 2:29 PM
Well played Scott. I backed the truck up yesterday at $26.75. Nice movement the last few minutes up to $27.30.
Jan 12, 2:41 PM
Scott Kennedy
Update: Repurchased $ORC today at a w/a price of $8.99 per share. Recent sell-off a good opportunity. Repurchases at these levels. PT $10.30
Jan 13, 4:06 PM
Sounds good! Back in at $9.05 this morning. Ditched PSEC with loss...too much drama on the message boards and ticker for me.
Jan 15, 7:24 PM
I noticed ORC & MORT selloffs in mid-DEC & JAN traded with JNK, not MBS. But generally JNK & MORT go opposite ways in a recession.
Jan 11, 9:50 PM
Scott Kennedy
$ORC's BV estimate as of 12/31/2015 is $11.64 per share. My 12/31/2015 projection of $11.73 per share means a slight underperfromance.
Jan 11, 9:54 PM
However, as projected in November, $ORC's Q4 2015 BV should outperform other fixed-rate agency mREITs. Stable dividend (as expected) a +.
Jan 11, 9:58 PM
I'm raising my previous $ORC price target from $10 to $10.30 per share. My entry price is now $9.30 per share, up from $9.00.
12/30/15
Scott Kennedy
Sold my position in $ORC at a w/a price of $9.925. Price target of $10 was basically met. My w/a entry point was $8.56 = 16% gain in Dec..
Jan 2, 1:17 PM
Thanks everyone for the replies / updates. I'm glad for those who made some money on this trade. Happy New Year.
Jan 6, 5:34 PM
Happy New Year Scott! Would love to hear if you find another with compellingly undervalued! Rob
12/18/15
Scott Kennedy
Recent correlations favor 30-year MBS vs. 15-year MBS. Beneficial for $ORC and $NLY while a detriment for mREITs like $ARR and $CYS.
12/14/15
Scott Kennedy
Increased my position in $ORC at a w/a price of $8.34. This purchase was approx. double the monetary amount of my prior purchase. $AGNC $NLY
Hybrids (fixed-rate to variable-rate) can be agency or non-agency. I hope that helps with your understanding.
12/16/15
Thanks Scott.
12/14/15
Scott Kennedy
Increased my position in AGNCB at a w/a price of $23.10. Various sectors oversold due to the pending FOMC meeting + high yield panic. $AGNC
12/9/15
Scott Kennedy
Increased my position in AGNCB at a w/a price of $23.75. This purchase was approx. double the monetary amount of my prior 2 purchases. $AGNC
12/7/15
Scott Kennedy
Increased my position in AGNCB today at a w/a price of $24.50. See some value in this class of preferred; nice alternative for now. $AGNC
11/27/15
Scott Kennedy
Initialed a position in AGNCB today at a w/a price of $24.30. See some value in this class of preferred; nice alternative for now. $AGNC
11/12/15
Scott Kennedy
$AGNC 10/31/2015 BV of $23.04 is $0.06 per share higher when compared to my projected 10/31/2015 BV of $22.98. Stable dividend positive.
11/6/15
Scott Kennedy
Repurchased $ORC yesterday at a w/a price of $8.985 per share. The company will outperform as interest rates gradually increase. PT $10.00
That is my current PT. Since I have a f-t professional career and can't "watch the markets", yes, I like to have trade triggers in place.
With that being said, if I see a fundamental change within a company or a sector, I do reassess my price targets. Thanks for the question.
11/3/15
Scott Kennedy
Sold my $MAIN position at $30.515 per share as my price target of a 35% premium to NAV was surpassed. My w/a cost basis was $26.335.
I will look to buy $MAIN again when the stock is valued at a lower premium to NAV. This trade was a nice s-t gain (+ nice dividends).
good job Scott. congrats.
10/2/15
Scott Kennedy
Since my article, where I said $NEWT was a STRONG BUY at $15.78, the stock has appreciated 19% in 5 weeks and hit my price target of $18.25.
Hi mrmedusa, yes, that def. helped. I was a bit surprised by the move up after the declaration. It was already disclosed in prior filings.
I'm assuming markets just wanted that "confirmation" of the special dividend. The trend lower prior to the announcement was unjustified.
9/28/15
Scott Kennedy
Initiated a modest position in $MAIN today at a w/a price of $26.335. Today's "shakeup" created an opportunity in BDCs $PSEC $GBDC $FSFR.
9/23/15
Scott Kennedy
Sold my $ORC position at a w/a price of $10.035 per share on 9/21/2015 (disclosed to several readers privately at the time).
With the FED's more dovish tone, $ORC has derivatives that will have a notable loss in Q3 2015. Looking to re-enter near $9 per share.
9/25/15
Charlie Munger says, 'when you find a bargain, hold it patiently and wait for the market to realize the value'. Good luck on re-entry
9/20/15
Scott Kennedy
$ORC has had a great s-t run since my acquisition at a w/a price of $7.955 (and my article dated 8/7/2015). http://bit.ly/1HDIO5n
$ORC is now very close to my price target of $10.40 per share.
7/29/15
Scott Kennedy
$ORC AH sell-off is an incorrect initial reaction. Structured portfolio hedged the RMBS losses hence BV outperformed $ARR, $CYS, $HTS
Hi Rob, that will be in my ORC article. Wouldn't have bought the stock if I believed another cut was coming. Hope that helps for now.
Hi Rob #2, Yes, I like the stocktalks for quick, real time messaging when I have a couple minutes of free time during the day..
7/24/15
Scott Kennedy
30-year MBS prices have outperformed 15-year MBS this week / first three weeks of Q3 2015. Positive for $AGNC, $NLY, $ORC, $WMC.
7/24/15
Scott Kennedy
Bought $ORC today at a w/a price of $7.826. Purchase was double my initial investment. A > (35%) current discount is unjustified. $AGNC $NLY
I was able to get in $ORC this morning at $7.80 a share. Lets hope this dividend is sustainable, I done want to be in another $ARR.
7/28/15
still feel like an orc'n genius this morning... let's see what the afternoon brings...
7/23/15
Scott Kennedy
$ORC Is now in oversold territory. I made an initial purchase today at a w/a price of $8.234 per share. Target = $9 per share. $AGNC $NLY
Thank You. It may be dicey through the rest of sector earnings. However, over the next couple months a (30%) discount = a buying opport.
I agree. I added to my shares today as well. :)
7/14/15
Scott Kennedy
$ORC is now looking attractive at $8.75 per share. Potential for some nice s-t upside potential. $AGNC $NLY $CYS
7/14/15
Picked up some more yesterday- $8.55 and $8.50.
Yes, it has had a material sell-off. I had a sell recommendation back when it was trading above $13. It now has an attractive valuation.
6/12/15
Scott Kennedy
$AGNC BV of $24.94 at 5/31/2015 slightly below my projected BV of $25.01. Stable $0.20 June 2015 dividend in line with prior projection.
5/8/15
Scott Kennedy
Quarter to date, seeing more positive correlations between MBS and derivative instruments. Also, yield curve steepening. $AGNC $NLY $CYS
4/21/15
Scott Kennedy
$NLY has recently surpassed a (20%) discount to BV. As such, I have now initiated a modest position at a w/a price $10.26 per share.
12/19/14
Scott Kennedy
Update: Assessing Fifth Street Senior Finance's Fiscal Q4 Results And Several Metrics Regarding The... $FSFR http://seekingalpha.com/a/1nbs7
12/16/14
Scott Kennedy
Understanding Prospect Capital's Recently Announced Material Dividend Reduction And Change In Policy $PSEC http://seekingalpha.com/a/1n4kr
12/8/14
Scott Kennedy
Update: Assessing Fifth Street Finance Corp.'s Results For Fiscal Q4 2014 $FSC http://seekingalpha.com/a/1molr
12/4/14
Scott Kennedy
Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate's Upcoming Fiscal Q4 2014 Net Asset Value Projection $FSFR http://seekingalpha.com/a/1mg6p