Scott MacDonald

Long only, momentum, growth, special situations
Scott MacDonald
Long only, momentum, growth, special situations
Contributor since: 2012
I love the growing relationship between Disney and Imax. Is anyone else thinking this could evolve into an acquision the way the Pixar/Disney relationship did?
This capability seems very similar to the Wii U. If so, the Wii Us success could indicate a strong market for the device.
Actually, Indie films, Documentaries and older films is exactly where Netflix excels.
Thanks for the tip. I will definitely look into it.
Interesting concept. Can you link the article/source? I would like to dig into that a bit.
It appears that my recommendation to put Netflix on your watchlist and buy if it should gain positive momentum would have paid off for those that listened.
It didn't double, but a 50% gain from the time I wrote this article is nothing to scoff at. There are still underlying fundamental issues and competition is increasing. Until Netflix provides a reasonable plan to maintain its competitive edge I am not a buyer over $75. At this point I would take half my money off the table.
One more nail in the coffin of the bear thesis for IMAX. Long IMAX.
I believe that is the current mode of operation. I am a Netflix subscriber but frequent Redbox.
Many analyst are having a heck of a time applying their traditional metrics and analytical techniques to the the newer business models made possible by new technology. Your view is refreshing.
Excellent dissection of the short case for Coinstar made stronger by the fact that you did not talk about all of the additional ventures and strategic partnerships Coinstar is working on.
I went over a few of those in my recent article.
My valuation puts it at around $78. Unless one of their new ventures becomes a runaway hit sooner than expected.
Anecdotal or not, your right, it is compelling. Thank you for sharing. What you have wrote actually makes for a good article. You should write it up and submit it if you haven't done so already.
I thought I read that redbox instant would not go live until end of the 1Q 2013. It appears it may be significantly sooner. I for one will be checking it out as soon as it is available.
I wrote an article about Netflix that warns that Coinstars offering is the real threat not the larger companies that treat streaming as a hobby (Apple, Amazon etc).
Thanks John,
I feel Netflix is another company that analysts don't get from a customer perspective. Yes, they have fundamental issues. Shrinking margins, competition etc but the product is still the best streaming service by far. Anyone that says otherwise doens't get the product.
I would love to here why you think they will be taken private.
I don't believe that Coinstar's leadership expects to win the streaming war. They expect to extend the life of their movie rental business and suppliment their revenue while their other ventures mature.
I think the name recognition and convinience of Redbox will give them a pretty good start. The value, at $6 a month, and the potential synergy with their other kiosks could allow for some interesting offerings.
Rent a movie, get a free coffee. Buy a live event ticket get a free coffee etc.
I am not saying that they don't have challenges. I believe that their leadership has earned the benefit of the doubt.
The biometric kiosks are already in use in some states. I think they would have to be in a building (perhaps in a pharmacy) and would cut down on wait times at your traditional pharmacy. With the proper security precautions I could see them being very successful.
Coinstar has about 10 other kiosks in the works as well.
Thank you.
I agree with you about Medbox. That is actually how I made that connection.
I didn't include this in the article but they have fairly strong fundamentals. I haven't found anyone saying anything to the contrary. I am very comfortable holding a long position.
How much do you want to bet the new Star Wars films will be shot in IMAX?
I think Disney's acquisition of Lucasfilms is another strong reason to buy Hasbro.
It is also interesting that today (November 6th, 2012) HAS is up 4.5% based on rumors that Disney is interested in purchasing the company. Hasbro currently owns the licensing rights to some of the most prominent Marvel (Disney owned) characters and Star Wars (disney owned). Vertical integration might make sense.
I own HAS in my IRA as well. I highlighted them as one of the companies that stand to benefit from the Disney acquisition of Lucasfilms.
I think the affect that this acquisition will have on their Star Wars toys will be large and lasting.
Thanks for the tip HackFab. I have a small position in Hasbro stock. I will definitely take a look at the DRIP.
Agreed sidetracker. This is exciting news especially considering Lucas announced that he was done making Star Wars movies last year.
With the marketing of Disney, The vision of Lucas and the combined storytelling experience of Pixar and Marvel at their disposal, I think the new movies may even be able to surpass the originals (blasphemy, I know).
This is a brilliant move by Disney. I am very excited both as a fan and as a stockholder.
Amid the success of blockbuster spectacles like Avatar, The Avengers, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2, his predictions just seems silly.
It is more likely he is bitter at his lack of box office success.
American's may be trending away from movie theaters as some theater bears suggest (Larry Meyers) but worldwide tickets sales are increasing rapidly.
Currently, no streaming service is as good a value as Netflix. Amazon Prime is a great value but it is due to all of the non-streaming perks (e-books, shipping).
Many analysts point to the fact that Amazon Prime is cheaper on an annual basis but it is a lot easier for a subscriber to dish out $8 a month than $79. Netflix also allows you to cancel any time. That limits the risk. If you subscribe and don't like it, it cost you $8. For Amazon Prime, your out $79 whether you use it or not.
Another solid point regarding content; it changes. Your free trial last year is not representative of what Netflix content list is today. I think much of the perception about Netflix content is outdated.
I actually have Amazon Prime and Netflix. I see no reason not to have both.
I am a streaming subscriber and I thoroughly enjoy the content selection. I hear so often from Netflix bears that it is terrible but in my opinion they are wrong. That is the trouble with that argument. It is entirely opinion based and treated as fact by Netflix bears.
I believe the company has some serious challenges ahead and has clearly made mistakes over the past 18 months or so but they still have the best streaming service.
Your premise is sound. I wrote an article in a similar vein last month.
However, your article is entirely onesided. You mention that Netflix has been cutting content but not that it has also added quite a bit of content as well. It cut Dog the Bounty Hunter and Ice Truckers but added Ironman 2, Thor, Captain America, Transformers: Dark of the Moon,Everybody Loves Raymond, Rules of Engagement, etc.
You assert that Amazon Prime will probably have more content by the end of next year without validating the statement. Netflix has over $700 million worth of content deals that haven't hit the streaming service yet.
I don't like Netflix chances right now either but this article is misleading.
I am long as well. The company is not getting the respect it deserves in terms of a stock price.
I agree and have essentially said so in my most recent article. I am not investing in Netflix because there are a lot of challenges to the company right now and investor sentiment seems negative. When I see what Netflix's response to those challenges are I will re-evaluate.
I do think that the Coinstar/Verizon streaming offering could be the first true competitor to Netflix but I am waiting to see what that offering looks like before I announce Netflix demise.
I believe Netflix is providing just as good a service as they always have. Some content is gone and other content has replaced it which is a good thinng because I don't tend to watch the same thing over and over again.
However, losing ground and losing are two very different things. Often we take diametricly opposed positions when the truth is almost always somewhere in between.
As I pointed out in my article, Netflix is currently a bad investment but they are far from dead.
I use both but prefer Netflix interface. I don't care for the fact that premium movies and free ones are mixed together when I search. Netflix monthly subscription feels more affordable because it is monthly and I can cancel anytime I want.
It takes a lot for people to change brands. To a lesser degree, it is like getting a MAC user to buy a PC. Clearly that is more involved but the psychology is the same. "I know Netflix and Amazon Prime is different, therefore it is a hassle to change".
Amazon Prime is a great value but comparing just the streaming services, Netflix is still significantly better.
That is why I argue that Netflix needs to progress beyond a streaming company.