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Scott Martindale

 
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  • Bullish Investors Jockey For Position As If The Correction Is Over
    Tue, Aug. 19 SPY 4 Comments

    Summary

    • As many investors enjoy the final weeks of summer, some optimistic bulls seem to be positioning themselves well ahead of Labor Day in anticipation of a fall rally.
    • I doubt that was the entire pullback for the year. But I also believe that only a major Black Swan event can send this market into a deeper correction.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings continue to look neutral to me, although there are some signs of bullishness.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a neutral stance, holding Technology, Healthcare, and Energy. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • August Consolidation Offers Opportunity To Buy Best Stocks From Top Sectors
    Mon, Aug. 11 BBH, BIIB, DEF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks saw elevated volume and volatility last week, and the 100-day simple moving average on the S&P 500 proved to be the proverbial line-in-the-sand for bullish investors.
    • The question remains as to whether that was the big new buying opportunity, or whether more backing-and-filling is needed.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look neutral to me. Technology remains top-ranked, and it is also the year-to-date performance leader.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a neutral stance, holding Technology, Healthcare, and Utilities. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Patient Bulls Finally Get A New Entry Point, Thanks To Inflation Fears
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARRS, BBH, CVI 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed hinted at some inflation and bulls got spooked, and of course a little fear at overbought levels can snowball in short order.
    • With a little more technical consolidation and successful testing of nearby support levels, the next move higher and a test of tough resistance could commence at any time.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based sector rankings again look slightly to the bullish side of neutral to me.
    • Nevertheless, our sector rotation model suggests a neutral stance, holding Technology, Healthcare, and Energy. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bold Bulls Dare Meek Bears To Take Another Crack
    Mon, Jul. 28 ALGT, BBH, BIIB 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction going.
    • Despite weak or neutral charts and moderately bullish sector rankings, the trend is definitely on the side of the bulls, not to mention the bears’ neurotic skittishness.
    • Overall, although still not clear-cut, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings again look slightly bullish to me.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Healthcare, and Industrial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bulls Remain Unfazed By Borderline Black Swans
    Mon, Jul. 21 BRCM, CIT, CPHD 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Despite an eventful news week, not much has changed for the stock market. Concern that the Malaysian airliner tragedy would be a dreaded Black Swan event passed quickly.
    • Strength in U.S. stocks is being driven by expectations of continued low interest rates, a big jump in GDP growth, and improving corporate earnings (which has looked promising).
    • Overall, although not clear-cut, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look slightly more bullish to me.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Healthcare, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Will Earnings Season Provide The Next Catalyst For Stocks?
    Mon, Jul. 14 ACT, ARRS, BBH Comment!

    Summary

    • More unnerving conflicts around the globe have flared up, but U.S. equity investors seem to have become pretty much numb to the steady stream of unwelcome news.
    • Sell-side earnings expectations have been reduced from the previous lofty forecasts but are still high, so perhaps earnings season can catalyze a breakout from this consolidation zone.
    • Stocks lost their momentum in the post-holiday summer trading, as I predicted, and I still think there may be more downside in store before summer is over.
    • Still, our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Energy, Technology, and Healthcare. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Summer Slog Likely To Keep A Lid On Further Stock Gains
    Mon, Jul. 7 IDU, IYC, IYE Comment!

    Summary

    • With persistently overbought technical conditions and two months of summer doldrums ahead, stocks are unlikely to muster much in the way of further progress over the near term.
    • But sentiment indicators are cautious, buybacks continue, EPS is projected to set new records, and central banks continue to inject liquidity, so P/E multiples have room to rise further.
    • Utilities fell hard last week, allowing Energy to become the new leader year-to-date. Utilities is now in a virtual dead-heat with Healthcare and Technology.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Energy, and Healthcare. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Mid-Year Mark Finds Eager Bulls Seeking Renewed Traction
    Mon, Jun. 30 ALK, FITB, FXR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stocks continue to hold up strong even though bulls have lost some traction, perhaps due to a combination of the summer doldrums and overbought technical conditions.
    • With little in the way of a catalyst in either direction at the moment, bulls remain in the driver seat.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, income-oriented Utilities and REITs display the best performance year-to-date, while Energy and Technology have been coming on strong.
    • Our sector rotation model still suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Cruise Right Along, Whistling Past The Graveyard
    Mon, Jun. 23 FB, GD, IDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. stocks continue to cruise along, although investors seem to be displaying a healthy level of caution and the technical condition remains overbought..
    • The adage “never short a dull market” has certainly rung true as there has not been a 10% pullback in nearly 3 years, while the VIX hit a 7-year low.
    • Overall, I would say that this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look neutral and non-committal..
    • Our sector rotation model still suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bulls Revel In The New Normal While Bears Lie In Wait
    Mon, Jun. 9 AAPL, ALGT, EOG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks continue to push ahead on extremely low volume and with persistently low volatility, which is worrisome, and now the S&P 500 chart is extremely overbought.
    • There remains only modest bullish conviction, but no sign yet of bearish action to produce the elusive correction that is so overdue that bears have almost given up on it.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings have taken a decidedly defensive turn, given the rise in Utilities and Healthcare.
    • Our sector rotation model still suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Energy, and Industrial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Confirm Tepid Breakout, But On Ultra-Low Volume And Volatility
    Mon, Jun. 2 BCEI, DAL, EEM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The old adage about selling in May didn’t apply this year. Instead, larger-cap, higher-quality, and value-oriented stocks continued to lead the market higher..
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, defensive sector Utilities is still the clear leader year-to-date, and the top three are largely defensive sectors, which doesn’t feel particularly bullish..
    • The S&P 500 technical breakout was tepid at best, with a somewhat concerning ‘double-low’ confirmation,i.e., on extremely low volume and a backdrop of persistently low volatility. .
    • Overall, I would interpret this week’s fundamentals-based rankings as mostly bullish, given that four of the top five are economically sensitive (Technology, Energy, Financial, Industrial).
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Energy, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Breakout Or Another Bluff? Bulls Seeking Confirmation This Week
    Mon, May. 26 ACT, ARRS, EEM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks ended last week on a high note, with all eyes on Ukraine voting and Russia’s reaction, while Western Europe elections displayed increasingly anti-EU sentiment.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Utilities remains the leader year-to-date, but Energy has climbed significantly, and Technology is finally moving a move, looking quite strong last week.
    • The S&P 500 chart barely broke through tough resistance in place since early March. However, until it confirms, it might be just another false breakout attempt.
    • Overall, I would call this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings mostly bullish, mainly because the top three are all economically-sensitive sectors.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • False Breakout Just Another Tease, But Fundamental Rankings Are Bullish
    Mon, May. 19 ALK, BCPC, EEM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rather than a Great Rotation from bonds into equities, the rotation instead has been from growth into value, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell even further last week.
    • Defensive sectors Utilities and Telecom have shown the strongest Q1 earnings growth, although almost 80% of the S&P 500 have met or beat estimates.
    • The S&P 500 chart looks neutral and on the verge of breaking in either direction at any time, while our fundamentals-based sector rankings look bullish this week.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Basic Materials. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Stuck In Neutral As Both Sides Seek A Directional Catalyst
    Mon, May. 12 FXR, HII, IDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The technical picture is now neutral, and our fundamentals-based sector rankings look neutral, too. Caution is warranted until bulls or bears can find a catalyst.
    • There has been a rather significant correction in higher-risk growth stocks and small caps that has not translated into a correction for the broader market.
    • Whether or not we get a deeper correction to the broad market, trends and indicators suggest to me relatively modest but still positive returns this year for the broader market.
    • Our sector rotation model still suggests a bullish stance, holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bulls Are All Dressed Up, But Might Have No Place To Go
    Mon, May. 5 IDU, IYC, IYE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The economy shows strong signs of recovery as the Fed continues its stimulus tapering, and attractive alternative investments to the U.S. stock market seem scarce.
    • Although our fundamentals-based sector rankings are still bullish this week, the near-term technical picture paints a more worrisome story. Caution is in order.
    • Nevertheless, our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Industrial, and Energy. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bullish Fundamental Sector Rankings At Odds With Bearish Technicals
    Mon, Apr. 28 AAPL, FB, IDU 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The economy appears to be on a steady path to recovery. As the Federal Reserve eventually allows interest rates to rise, we likely will see rotation from value to growth.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, defensive sector Utilities is up over +12% year to date and no one else is even close.
    • Although our fundamentals-based rankings are more solidly bullish this week, the near-term technical picture has taken quite the bearish look.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Rejuvenated Market Seeks Follow-Through, But Earnings Loom Large
    Tue, Apr. 22 AGN, EGL, FXR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Although the market bounced strongly last week as I expected, I’m not convinced that the pullback was sufficient to create the next great buying opportunity.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, the big winner last week was Energy, but defensive sector Utilities still stands alone as the year-to-date leader.
    • This week’s fundamentals-based rankings have returned to a slightly bullish bias, but the near-term technical picture is more neutral than bullish.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Healthcare, and Industrial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Sector Rankings Take A Bearish Turn As The Flight To Safety Solidifies
    Mon, Apr. 7 AGN, HP, IDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Although the large caps set new highs early on Friday, small caps and NASDAQ have not come close to their prior highs.
    • The technical picture and our fundamentals-based sector rankings have both taken a bearish turn, so we might see more weakness ahead.
    • Longer term, an extended pullback likely will turn into a good buying opportunity, but the rotation from speculative stocks into higher quality companies should continue.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based rankings have taken a bearish turn, with Utilities rising to the top and with Financial and Basic Materials showing marked weakness.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Healthcare, and Energy. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Caution Flag Stays Out As Stocks Continue Their Consolidation
    Mon, Mar. 31 COF, HP, IDU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • As Q1 comes to an end, we can see that January was weak, February gained it back, and March treaded water. Now we head into a historically strong month.
    • Signals are mixed, with a steadily recovering economy and bullish fundamental indicators mixed with neutral technical and bearish sentiment indicators.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Energy was the big winner last week, up more than +2%. Utilities is still the leader year-to-date (+7.5%), followed by Healthcare (+4%).
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based sector rankings have returned to a slightly bullish bias after a couple of neutral weeks, but the caution flag is still up.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Energy. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Doomsayers Help Keep Bull Market Alive And Well
    Tue, Mar. 25 AAPL, ACT, CELG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bulls continue to climb a wall of worry, as the latest “bricks in the wall” created by Russia, slowing growth in China, and Fed tapering fades into the mosaic.
    • It seems that the doomsayers are helping keep the bull market from getting out of control -- and keeping it healthy.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Telecom, Financial, and Technology were each up more than 2% last week. Utilities is still the leader year-to-date, followed by Healthcare.
    • Our SectorCast fundamentals-based rankings reflect a neutral to slightly bullish near-term bias.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Utilities Sector Plows Ahead As Stocks Take An Overdue Breather
    Mon, Mar. 17 ACT, AXE, BIIB Comment!

    Summary

    • Weakness in stocks last week was entirely expected given the overbought technical conditions, the move to neutral in our SectorCast rankings, and the serious situation in Ukraine.
    • A healthy market will always take some time to fill gaps and test prior-resistance-turned-support levels, which serves to reinforce bullish conviction, and this is what we are seeing.
    • The situation in Crimean adds another “brick” to the market’s “wall of worry,” but bulls typically enjoy climbing the wall. I suspect this situation will be no different.
    • Our SectorCast fundamentals-based rankings reflect a neutral to slightly bullish near-term bias, and our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare.
  • SectorCast Rankings Take A Neutral Slant As Market Hits New Highs
    Tue, Mar. 11 EDN, IDU, IXN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • After a requisite knee-jerk selloff, stock market bulls shook off Russia’s military action in Ukraine as just another buying opportunity, ending last week at new highs.
    • Our SectorCast rankings have moved from bullish to a more neutral bias.
    • Overall, although the market might take a breather at current levels and perhaps even pull back a bit, the path of least resistance for the foreseeable future is still up.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Find Blue Skies While Economy Deals With Inclement Weather
    Mon, Mar. 3 AZPN, BRCD, CRVL Comment!
  • Stocks Continue Their Rebound As Uncertainties Subside
    Wed, Feb. 19 AGN, EQR, IDU 5 Comments
  • Sector Detector: Stock Market Approaching A Crossroads
    Mon, Feb. 10 BIIB, FFIV, IDU 4 Comments
  • Flight To Safety May Serve As Prelude To Flight To Quality Stocks
    Tue, Feb. 4 AAPL, ACT, CACC 3 Comments
  • Will Investors Embrace Weakness As An Entry Point?
    Tue, Jan. 28 AMP, BIIB, EEM 4 Comments
  • Investors Watch For January Effect As Earnings Season Gets Underway
    Tue, Jan. 14 CACI, DEF, FNCL 2 Comments
  • Stocks Close Out A Banner Year. Where To Invest Now?
    Mon, Jan. 6 ASPS, CTSH, FCNCA Comment!
  • Fed Drops The Green Flag And Bulls Are Off To The Races
    Dec. 19, 2013 GOOG, IDU, IYC 2 Comments
  • Random Observations As Consolidation In Stocks Continues
    Dec. 12, 2013 AMG, AMP, EQR 1 Comment
  • Tech Stays Strong As Markets Present A Welcome Entry Point
    Dec. 6, 2013 ALK, ASH, ASPS 2 Comments