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Scott Martindale  

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  • Breakout Or Another Bluff? Bulls Seeking Confirmation This Week
    May. 26, 2014 ACT, ARRS, EEM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks ended last week on a high note, with all eyes on Ukraine voting and Russia’s reaction, while Western Europe elections displayed increasingly anti-EU sentiment.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Utilities remains the leader year-to-date, but Energy has climbed significantly, and Technology is finally moving a move, looking quite strong last week.
    • The S&P 500 chart barely broke through tough resistance in place since early March. However, until it confirms, it might be just another false breakout attempt.
    • Overall, I would call this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings mostly bullish, mainly because the top three are all economically-sensitive sectors.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • False Breakout Just Another Tease, But Fundamental Rankings Are Bullish
    May. 19, 2014 ALK, BCPC, EEM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rather than a Great Rotation from bonds into equities, the rotation instead has been from growth into value, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell even further last week.
    • Defensive sectors Utilities and Telecom have shown the strongest Q1 earnings growth, although almost 80% of the S&P 500 have met or beat estimates.
    • The S&P 500 chart looks neutral and on the verge of breaking in either direction at any time, while our fundamentals-based sector rankings look bullish this week.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance holding Technology, Industrial, and Basic Materials. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Stuck In Neutral As Both Sides Seek A Directional Catalyst
    May. 12, 2014 FXR, HII, IDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The technical picture is now neutral, and our fundamentals-based sector rankings look neutral, too. Caution is warranted until bulls or bears can find a catalyst.
    • There has been a rather significant correction in higher-risk growth stocks and small caps that has not translated into a correction for the broader market.
    • Whether or not we get a deeper correction to the broad market, trends and indicators suggest to me relatively modest but still positive returns this year for the broader market.
    • Our sector rotation model still suggests a bullish stance, holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bulls Are All Dressed Up, But Might Have No Place To Go
    May. 5, 2014 IDU, IYC, IYE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The economy shows strong signs of recovery as the Fed continues its stimulus tapering, and attractive alternative investments to the U.S. stock market seem scarce.
    • Although our fundamentals-based sector rankings are still bullish this week, the near-term technical picture paints a more worrisome story. Caution is in order.
    • Nevertheless, our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Industrial, and Energy. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Bullish Fundamental Sector Rankings At Odds With Bearish Technicals
    Apr. 28, 2014 AAPL, FB, IDU 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The economy appears to be on a steady path to recovery. As the Federal Reserve eventually allows interest rates to rise, we likely will see rotation from value to growth.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, defensive sector Utilities is up over +12% year to date and no one else is even close.
    • Although our fundamentals-based rankings are more solidly bullish this week, the near-term technical picture has taken quite the bearish look.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Industrial, and Financial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Rejuvenated Market Seeks Follow-Through, But Earnings Loom Large
    Apr. 22, 2014 AGN, EGL, FXR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Although the market bounced strongly last week as I expected, I’m not convinced that the pullback was sufficient to create the next great buying opportunity.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, the big winner last week was Energy, but defensive sector Utilities still stands alone as the year-to-date leader.
    • This week’s fundamentals-based rankings have returned to a slightly bullish bias, but the near-term technical picture is more neutral than bullish.
    • Our sector rotation model suggests a bullish stance by holding Technology, Healthcare, and Industrial. Also discussed are alternative ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Sector Rankings Take A Bearish Turn As The Flight To Safety Solidifies
    Apr. 7, 2014 AGN, HP, IDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Although the large caps set new highs early on Friday, small caps and NASDAQ have not come close to their prior highs.
    • The technical picture and our fundamentals-based sector rankings have both taken a bearish turn, so we might see more weakness ahead.
    • Longer term, an extended pullback likely will turn into a good buying opportunity, but the rotation from speculative stocks into higher quality companies should continue.
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based rankings have taken a bearish turn, with Utilities rising to the top and with Financial and Basic Materials showing marked weakness.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Healthcare, and Energy. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Caution Flag Stays Out As Stocks Continue Their Consolidation
    Mar. 31, 2014 COF, HP, IDU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • As Q1 comes to an end, we can see that January was weak, February gained it back, and March treaded water. Now we head into a historically strong month.
    • Signals are mixed, with a steadily recovering economy and bullish fundamental indicators mixed with neutral technical and bearish sentiment indicators.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Energy was the big winner last week, up more than +2%. Utilities is still the leader year-to-date (+7.5%), followed by Healthcare (+4%).
    • Overall, this week’s fundamentals-based sector rankings have returned to a slightly bullish bias after a couple of neutral weeks, but the caution flag is still up.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Energy. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Doomsayers Help Keep Bull Market Alive And Well
    Mar. 25, 2014 AAPL, ACT, CELG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bulls continue to climb a wall of worry, as the latest “bricks in the wall” created by Russia, slowing growth in China, and Fed tapering fades into the mosaic.
    • It seems that the doomsayers are helping keep the bull market from getting out of control -- and keeping it healthy.
    • Among the ten U.S. business sectors, Telecom, Financial, and Technology were each up more than 2% last week. Utilities is still the leader year-to-date, followed by Healthcare.
    • Our SectorCast fundamentals-based rankings reflect a neutral to slightly bullish near-term bias.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Utilities Sector Plows Ahead As Stocks Take An Overdue Breather
    Mar. 17, 2014 ACT, AXE, BIIB Comment!

    Summary

    • Weakness in stocks last week was entirely expected given the overbought technical conditions, the move to neutral in our SectorCast rankings, and the serious situation in Ukraine.
    • A healthy market will always take some time to fill gaps and test prior-resistance-turned-support levels, which serves to reinforce bullish conviction, and this is what we are seeing.
    • The situation in Crimean adds another “brick” to the market’s “wall of worry,” but bulls typically enjoy climbing the wall. I suspect this situation will be no different.
    • Our SectorCast fundamentals-based rankings reflect a neutral to slightly bullish near-term bias, and our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare.
  • SectorCast Rankings Take A Neutral Slant As Market Hits New Highs
    Mar. 11, 2014 EDN, IDU, IXN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • After a requisite knee-jerk selloff, stock market bulls shook off Russia’s military action in Ukraine as just another buying opportunity, ending last week at new highs.
    • Our SectorCast rankings have moved from bullish to a more neutral bias.
    • Overall, although the market might take a breather at current levels and perhaps even pull back a bit, the path of least resistance for the foreseeable future is still up.
    • Our Sector Rotation Model suggests holding Technology, Financial, and Healthcare. Also discussed are some highly-ranked ETFs and individual stock ideas.
  • Stocks Find Blue Skies While Economy Deals With Inclement Weather
    Mar. 3, 2014 AZPN, BRCD, CRVL Comment!
  • Stocks Continue Their Rebound As Uncertainties Subside
    Feb. 19, 2014 AGN, EQR, IDU 5 Comments
  • Sector Detector: Stock Market Approaching A Crossroads
    Feb. 10, 2014 BIIB, FFIV, IDU 4 Comments
  • Flight To Safety May Serve As Prelude To Flight To Quality Stocks
    Feb. 4, 2014 AAPL, ACT, CACC 3 Comments
  • Will Investors Embrace Weakness As An Entry Point?
    Jan. 28, 2014 AMP, BIIB, EEM 4 Comments
  • Investors Watch For January Effect As Earnings Season Gets Underway
    Jan. 14, 2014 CACI, DEF, FNCL 2 Comments
  • Stocks Close Out A Banner Year. Where To Invest Now?
    Jan. 6, 2014 ASPS, CTSH, FCNCA Comment!
  • Fed Drops The Green Flag And Bulls Are Off To The Races
    Dec. 19, 2013 GOOG, IDU, IYC 2 Comments
  • Random Observations As Consolidation In Stocks Continues
    Dec. 12, 2013 AMG, AMP, EQR 1 Comment
  • Tech Stays Strong As Markets Present A Welcome Entry Point
    Dec. 6, 2013 ALK, ASH, ASPS 2 Comments
  • Is There Still Enough Fuel In The Bulls' Tank?
    Nov. 29, 2013 IDU, IYC, IYE 5 Comments
  • Stocks Retrench For Another Assault On Round-Number Thresholds
    Nov. 22, 2013 ALK, CACI, GNW 4 Comments
  • Bulls Seek Entry Point To Launch Year-End Rally
    Nov. 14, 2013 AL, ALK, ASPS 2 Comments
  • Fed Reiterates Its Role As Mr. Market's Trusty Sidekick
    Oct. 31, 2013 ALK, CVLT, EPL 2 Comments
  • Avoid Individual Stock Meltdowns While The Market Melts Up
    Oct. 24, 2013 IDU, IYE, IYF 2 Comments
  • Bulls Run With A Temporary Green Flag From Congress
    Oct. 18, 2013 AAPL, EPL, GNW 19 Comments
  • Buy The Dip Sentiment Gives Way To Preservation Of Capital
    Oct. 10, 2013 CACI, EOG, EQR Comment!
  • Still Bullish As Stocks Await Their 'Go' Signal From Congress
    Oct. 3, 2013 APC, CTSH, GNW 2 Comments
  • Congressional Dysfunction Puts Bulls On Hold...For The Moment
    Sep. 26, 2013 CACI, CLB, CLR 2 Comments
  • Stocks Have A Friend In The Fed
    Sep. 19, 2013 CTSH, EOG, EQT 6 Comments
  • Positive Signals From The Economy And Stock Market
    Sep. 12, 2013 EEM, EPL, GNW 2 Comments