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Scott Martindale

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  • Sector Rankings Take A Bearish Turn As The Flight To Safety Solidifies [View article]
    Thanks for your continued support. The SectorCast model includes no technical indicators, but the sentiment indicators can be valuable for making short-term adjustments even though the longer-term outlook has been consistently bullish.

    Do you windsurf The Gorge?
    Apr 7 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SectorCast Rankings Take A Neutral Slant As Market Hits New Highs [View article]
    As it says in the disclosure at the top, I have no positions in any stocks mentioned.
    Mar 13 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SectorCast Rankings Take A Neutral Slant As Market Hits New Highs [View article]
    Strictly from the standpoint of Sabrient's unbiased rules-based quant models, QCOR carries a 79 Value score, a perfect 100 Growth score, and a 94 Momentum score, and it carries a Strong Buy rating from our ratings algorithm. Moreover, it resides in the highest (best, or lowest risk) quintile of our Earnings Quality Rank, and it ranks #17 out of over 2700 eligible stocks in the GARP model that serves as the foundation of our high-performing annual "Baker's Dozen" portfolio (which has a +100% total return over the past two years), boasting a strong composite score of 87.5 (out of 100). Also, from a technical perspective, the stock has pulled back to the uptrend line where it seems to be finding buyable support.
    Mar 12 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Continue Their Rebound As Uncertainties Subside [View article]
    The Sabrient Ratings Algorithm (SRA) has been around since 2003. The Earnings Quality Rank (EQR) has only been in production since January 2013, so it is not included in SRA. We intend to launch a project later this year to incorporate EQR into SRA.

    However, note that EQR is already a factor in the Outlook Rank, which is the key score in our SectorCast model.
    Feb 19 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flight To Safety May Serve As Prelude To Flight To Quality Stocks [View article]
    I actually wrote and submitted this article on Sunday. SA didn't get it published until Tuesday, unfortunately. You can find more timely postings on the Sabrient blog.
    Feb 6 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Investors Embrace Weakness As An Entry Point? [View article]
    I have been writing these articles every week for several years, so I would encourage you to look back through my articles to see the various sector scores on various dates. You will see that at times, top-bottom spreads in Bull and/or Bear scores were much wider, sometimes ranging from 70's to 30's.The tighter scores we have been seeing are reflective of high equity correlations. Thanks for reading!
    Feb 1 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Drops The Green Flag And Bulls Are Off To The Races [View article]
    Thanks for your interest in the Baker's Dozen. You probably noticed the big 3% jump today (Thursday) in the portfolio, led by 15% gain in IACI, despite the market being flat to down.

    In prior years, the portfolio has stayed somewhat under the radar, with a relatively small contingent of subscribers, although each year the strong performance has attracted more and more attention, of course. Keep in mind that in order to be included in the unit investment trust (UIT) that tracks the portfolio, each stock must display a history of sufficient daily trading volume such that impacts like this are minimized. The UIT has a 30-day sales period, so funds are invested over time rather than all at once.

    You won't find micro caps in the portfolio. The smallest firm in the current portfolio upon launch on Jan 11 was EPL at about $900M mkt cap, and you can see in the historical chart that there were no notable price spikes in EPL around launch. All the other stocks were considered mid or large caps. More importantly, we aim for a minimum daily dollar volume (P*Vol) of at least $5M/day.
    Dec 19 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Stays Strong As Markets Present A Welcome Entry Point [View article]
    Follow up note: I wrote this article on Wed night when SNPS was down afterhours, but it recovered quickly on Thu despite troubling earnings quality trends. However, another recent Gradient Analytics report last month addressed earnings quality issues at ULTA, which is down big time (about 20% today) after disappointing last night.
    Dec 6 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Company That Has Been Lining The Pockets Of Its Shareholders For Years [View article]
    Thanks for sharing, Bill. I wanted to point out that Sabrient Systems' fundamentals-based quant models also have long favored OCN. We publish an annual "Baker's Dozen" portfolio of top stocks for the year, and OCN has been in the 13-stock portfolio both this year and last year. Last's year's portfolio was up +43% overall, with OCN contributing +135%, and this year's is up +31% so far since Jan 11 launch (with all 13 stocks solidly positive), with OCN contributing +52%.
    Sep 19 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transports Try To Prod Bulls Ever Forward [View article]
    I employ the US sector iShares rather than Sector SPDRS primarily for two reasons. First, iShares divides the equity universe into 10 sectors rather than 9, with Technology and Telecom separated, which I prefer. And second, the number and diversity of constitutents in each ETF is greater, which gives me more choices when drilling down to the top- or bottom-ranked stocks within each. Sector SPDRs are subsets of the S&P 500 large cap index, while sector iShares track the various Dow Jones US industry indexes, which include companies with lower capitalizations.
    Mar 29 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transports Try To Prod Bulls Ever Forward [View article]
    AAPL looks like a good bet within Sabrient's various quant models. It carries an Outlook score of 94, Value 96, Growth 92, and Earnings Quality 82. Only its Momentum score is low at 36 (no surprise).

    FFIV also looks good with an Outlook score of 70, Value 70, Growth 93, Momentum 12, and Earnings Quality 96.

    On the other hand, NEM carries much lower scores, including an Outlook score of 56, Value 73, Growth 25, Momentum 9, and Earnings Quality 17. Not quite as good.
    Mar 28 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Seek New Blood To Boost Conviction [View article]
    JJC is an exchange-traded note (ETN) tied to copper futures contracts, and as such it is not included in Sabrient's SectorCast rankings, which creates bottom-up aggregate profiles of ETFs based on the underlying equity scores. What I can say is that from a chart perspective, JJC has fallen hard this month and today it is threatening to close below its 200-day simple moving average. On the other hand, its oscillators have become oversold and price should be getting ready to at least stabilize and perhaps bounce back. Whether it's only a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. From a fundamental perspective, the iShares Basic Materials ETF (IYM), which includes copper miners, continues to rank low in the Sabrient rankings, primarily driven by modest low-term growth projections and net downgrades from the Wall Street analyst community.
    Feb 21 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare And Utilities Are The Current Safe Havens [View article]
    Thanks, La Marque, for the kind words. I invite you to sign up for email delivery of my weekly article through the web site ... and tell your friends!
    Dec 2 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings Stay Neutral While Charts Take A Bullish Turn [View article]
    Thanks for your interest, Eric. Sabrient's fundamentals-based Outlook rank went live in March 2008 after extensive testing and development showed that it had an outstanding ability to layer predicted performance over an entire universe of stocks (not just the tails, as is typical for most multifactor filters). Because of this, we felt it was our best model to use for aggregrating scores of individual stocks to create bottom-up profiles of stock baskets, such as sectors, industries, and ETFs. Testing at that time showed a top-2 minus bottom-2 sector performance spread of roughly 12% per year.

    The Outlook rank continued to perform exceptionally well through much of 2010, but during 2011 it began to be impacted (like most quant models) by the inordinately high correlations among equities (perhaps driven by the big macro events leading to asset allocation swings at the expense of traditional stock-picking). Implied correlations approached 85% in the fall of 2011. This "risk-on/risk-off" behavior often led to "junk stocks" outperforming. Because the Outlook rank generally rewards higher-quality GARP stocks with conservative accounting practices, its performance lagged in such an environment.

    Nevertheless, quality eventually rises to the top. As equity correlations have receded, the performance of the fundamentals-based Outlook model has shown signs over recent months that it is returning to its former glory.
    Dec 2 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Detector: U.S. Stocks Still The Place To Be For Global Investors [View article]
    Ray, the last section of my article talks about one approach to a sector rotation strategy using ETFs based upon Sabrient's fundamentals-based SectorCast model. An "enhanced" sector rotation version would take the additional step of trading the highest ranked stocks within the highest ranked sectors (rather than the ETFs), and perhaps employing options (both for leverage and for limiting risk). Finally, if one is open to more frequent trading and position monitoring, one could use the rankings to create a watchlist and then use a technical overlay for entry/exits.
    Sep 13 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment