Seeking Alpha

Scott Minerd

 
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  • Falling Gas Prices Fuel Holiday Cheer
    Fri, Nov. 21 UGA, XRT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The domestic economy will benefit this holiday season from rising equities and lower gas prices.
    • The rally in equities has still not been confirmed by the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line.
    • Whether the Advance/Decline Line can catch up in the next few weeks will determine the rally’s sustainability.
  • 'Risk On' For Now
    Fri, Nov. 7 DIA, HYG, JNK 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Overseas monetary accommodation should support U.S. risk assets’ near-term outperformance.
    • Longer term, there are obstacles ahead for the post-QE U.S. economy as the dollar strengthens.
    • For now, though, risk assets appear to be the place to be.
  • Europe Must Act Now
    Thu, Oct. 30 FXE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve.
    • Quantitative easing in Europe is coming, but too slowly to avert a severe slowdown.
    • The ECB needs to purchase at least another €1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough.
  • Short-Term Optimism, Longer-Term Caution
    Fri, Oct. 24 SPY, DIA, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Seasonal pattern of higher volatility in September and October now largely fulfilled.
    • Since World War II, S&P 500 has averaged strong gains in November and December.
    • Dark cloud hanging over Europe is a serious threat to the outlook.
  • Seasonal Factors Ready To Turn Positive
    Thu, Oct. 16 SPY, QQQ, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields still look relatively attractive, even at close to 2 percent.
    • The U.S. equities market now appears to be oversold and should soon rally.
    • A number of indicators will offer signals about how long the rally in U.S. stocks and bonds can continue.
  • Banquo's Grain And U.S. Interest Rates
    Thu, Oct. 2 PLW, GOVT, BND 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Macroeconomic data suggests rates could justifiably be 100 basis points higher.
    • However, a number of forces at play suggest U.S. Treasury rates will fall further.
    • Despite current market volatility, expect one more rally for U.S. stocks and bonds.
  • After 'Considerable Time,' Fed To Define 'Highly Accommodative'
    Thu, Sep. 25 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Fed Chair Janet Yellen's message has been that she would keep interest rates zero bound for a "considerable time."
    • Dr. Yellen's next challenge is to define what the FOMC means by another crucial phrase "highly accommodative."
    • A "highly accommodative" monetary policy could cause the U.S. economy to overheat.
  • Why The Pennant Race Could Coincide With Market Volatility
    Fri, Sep. 19 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The battle at the Federal Reserve is exacerbating market uncertainty.
    • While the U.S. economy is improving, investors should expect near-term volatility.
    • The buy signal for the S&P 500 traditionally coincides with the first game of the World Series.
  • Bulls Charge Despite Weak Data
    Thu, Sep. 11 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Doves may concede some ground to the hawks.
    • Even if they do, broader downward pressures on interest rates remain intact.
    • For now, the bulls hold the advantage—stocks tend to rise even after a rate hike.
  • Central Banks Pump Up The Volume
    Wed, Sep. 3 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Germany’s dismal GDP reinforces ECB President Draghi’s call for QE in Europe.
    • The majority of FOMC voting members next year are doves, suggesting sustained accommodation.
    • Stock and bond markets appear well positioned to benefit from the promise of easy money.
  • Don't Fight The U.S. Treasury Rally
    Thu, Aug. 21 IEF Comment!

    Summary

    • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields seem likely to decline in the near term.
    • If they do, a wave of mortgage refinancing could drive rates even lower.
    • The subsequent rally could create a compelling portfolio rebalancing opportunity.
  • Investor Or Speculator?
    Thu, Aug. 7 DIA, SPY, QQQ 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The market correction in U.S. equities may not yet be over.
    • However, equities are fairly priced and I believe they will move higher.
    • Investors who resist short-term panic may be rewarded with an uptick by year-end.
  • Normalize To What?
    Wed, Jul. 30 BUND, PLW, GOVT 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Fears over a sudden Fed rate hike to “normal” levels are overplayed.
    • International demand for U.S. Treasuries is likely to increase.
    • If it does, shrinking U.S. federal budget deficits could lead to lower rates.
  • The Hangover
    Thu, Jul. 24 SPY, DIA, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed’s not taking the punch bowl from the party, but investors should be wary of the hangover.
    • Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent congressional testimony suggested that she does not subscribe to her predecessor's temperance.
    • The S&P500 has now gone nearly 800 days since a correction of more than 10 percent.
  • The Tolling Bells Of Complacency
    Thu, Jul. 17 SPY, DIA, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Chair Yellen acknowledges risk of market problems, stretched valuations.
    • Fed is perhaps biggest contributor to rise in risk taking.
    • CPI could be an alarm bell of coming problems.
  • Guarding Against Complacency
    Wed, Jul. 9 SPY, DIA, QQQ 10 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. economy is now truly firing on all cylinders.
    • High-yield valuations suggest seeking better quality credits.
    • Investors should be wary of the danger of complacency.
  • The Outlook For Yields
    Thu, Jul. 3 13 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield should now be 3-3.25 percent.
    • ADP report is the latest sign U.S. economy is strengthening.
    • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields could hit cyclical high of 3.75-4 percent.
  • The Signal And The Noise
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Jun. 25 SPY, QQQ, DIA 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Fed, investors have become complacent about inflation.
    • Technical and cyclical forces are pushing consumer prices higher.
    • Late in this bull market, Fed must beware of making a mistake.
  • American Allure
    Wed, Jun. 18 SPY, DIA, FXE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • American economy showing strength, Q2 GDP should be stronger.
    • Latest data from China confirms economy improving.
    • Outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds positive heading into summer.
  • Trading The Last Third Of A Move
    Wed, Jun. 11 AGG, BOND, BND Comment!

    Summary

    • Now is the late stage of the bull market.
    • Credit spreads could tighten further.
    • Best bull market profits often come in the speculative phase.
  • Central Banks Chart A Course For Overheating
    Wed, Jun. 11 PLW, GOVT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • There is little reason now to expect a policy mistake from the Fed.
    • Bull market for credit could continue until 2017 or 2018.
    • Over next 12 to 24 months, we will move into this bull market’s speculative phase.
  • Acta Non Verba
    Wed, Jun. 4 FXE, UUP, UDN 6 Comments

    Summary

    • ECB’s Draghi should take a shock and awe approach.
    • ECB action could send euro lower, send capital to United States.
    • ECB could prompt a precipitous decline in U.S. Treasury yields over the summer.
  • Taking Advantage Of Pessimism
    Fri, May. 30 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Talk of any economic crisis is overblown.
    • Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury note could be headed to 2.2 percent or lower.
    • This year, ignore that well-known trading adage “sell in May and go away”.
  • China's Property Problems
    Wed, May. 21 TAO, CHIX 10 Comments

    Summary

    • China’s slowing property market can be managed.
    • Loan-to-value ratios in China are lower than in United States.
    • Inflation of 5-7 percent for three or four years could fix the problem.
  • Breaking Good
    Thu, May. 15 MUB, PZA, MUNI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Structural factors driving strong demand for fixed-income products.
    • Most areas of U.S. fixed income are overvalued.
    • ABS, municipals and bank loans still offer good value.
  • Forward Into Broad, Sunlit Uplands
    Wed, May. 7 2 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. economy will strengthen as we move toward summer.
    • Overseas capital flows are keeping interest rates low.
    • This may be a year to ignore “sell in May and go away”.
  • Old Embers Never Die
    Wed, Apr. 30 AGG, BOND, VGK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Ukraine tensions good for U.S. bonds.
    • Could slow but not derail Europe's recovery.
    • Tensions could buoy U.S. defense budget.
  • Ukraine Benefits U.S. Investors
    Tue, Apr. 29 VGK, FEZ, IEV 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Ukraine situation becoming more serious.
    • Any European “risk-off” positive for U.S. assets.
    • U.S. stocks should hit new highs before end of this year.
  • Resistance Is Futile, For Now
    Wed, Apr. 23 AFK, EZA, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Great “risk-on” trade continues.
    • Certain sectors of the credit market are showing signs of overheating.
    • Africa offers a great opportunity for long-term investors.
  • A Bend In The Road Is Not The End Of The Road
    Wed, Apr. 16 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • U.S. Q1 output unlikely to match 3 percent-plus GDP growth forecasts.
    • The 2.6 percent yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries will likely prove to be an area of support.
    • One year from now, U.S. credit spreads should be tighter and U.S. stocks higher.
  • Wanting Work Makes A Difference
    Wed, Apr. 9 Comment!

    Summary

    • Increasing labor force participation rate could be key for Fed.
    • Increase in participation rate could push full employment back to 2016.
    • Rebounding participation rate bolsters dovish position.
  • Plans Are Nothing, Planning Is Everything
    Wed, Apr. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Low inflation could push Fed rate hike into 2016.
    • Equities typically outperform in year leading up to Fed rate rise.
    • Bank loans and CLOs should also continue to outperform.