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Scott Murray

 
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  • Will VIX Expiration Bring Any Surprises? [View article]
    I meant near a 7 year low, sorry that I misspoke. I never mentioned historical vol. You should write a story on SA since you know a lot about vol. I'm not going to argue with you about things I didn't write about.
    May 20, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will VIX Expiration Bring Any Surprises? [View article]
    I frequently talk about short trades on my website, and in the newsletter, I just don't do it when the VIX is at a 7 year low.
    May 20, 2014. 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    I did not say that volatility options were insurance, I was referring to SPY options (see option chains above), and that you can better buy cheap volatility in them when the VIX is low and future volatility may be higher than historic volatility (like this week). I talk a lot about timing in my newsletter.
    May 17, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    While a lot of these comments are true, I don't think that has anything to do with this particular article, nor do I suggest here buying VXX or their options. I go into extreme detail in my newsletter and on my site about the contango in these products.
    May 16, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    VXX and related options do an enormous amount of volume even in this environment, so it is not going away.

    There are ways to build a better ETF, and I may suggest some in a future article.
    May 16, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    I will tackle a few of these points in my next article. I believe there are ways to time spikes off of low vol, within a certain range of time. Not tomorrow or next week. Thx for the comments.
    May 16, 2014. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    I appreciate that, thanks.
    May 16, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    Good thoughts, just keep in mind that the VIX has seasonality too, and Dec/Jan tends to be the lowest of the year.

    Long term strategies, i.e. slow money, does phenomenally well in these products if you know how to structure them.
    May 7, 2014. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    1. the roll always fluctuates, it all depends on the contango spread
    2. only on trading days
    3. see the ipath website, search vxx holdings
    4. each opex cycle has different patterns and the market has a say too of course
    5. part two is on my instablog because they didn't want to publish an options article
    See my site for more info on this topic, there's a lot of posts there on vxx
    May 7, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    Agreed, and I love the bearish call spread, but the sweet science here is knowing when to put on the bullish put spreads and the bearish calls spread.

    Not the best time for bullish call spreads if you are looking past a few days, IMO.
    May 7, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    There is only one real price target for VXX, and that is a fraction above zero over time. Although that path can be quite bumpy.
    May 7, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    Yes, it is oversimplified. But your comment assumes a flat VIX, and that is a simplified assumption in and of itself, no?

    I say "roughly" in the article, but I am working on a sensitivity model incorporating moves in each future price.
    May 7, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    Yeah, your experience is not uncommon. The key is to not only know what the VIX represents, but also what the VXX and UVXY are currently holding. Lots of folks have taken big hits this spring and their supposed hedges didn't work.

    Thanks for the kind comments.
    May 6, 2014. 08:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs Present Rare Opportunities [View article]
    Thanks, go to my blog for part 2 of this post.
    May 6, 2014. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Excellent case made for asymmetry in vol trades right now. I make the same case with a slightly different spin and trade structure:
    http://bit.ly/1fIsf1z
    May 4, 2014. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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107 Comments
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