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Scott Murray

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  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Makes you wonder what good it does to throw darts at an earnings guess. Doesn't do anyone any good. Just confuses people and masks the fundamentals.
    Oct 29 02:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    The problem with their valuation is that no one can buy them due to sheer size, therefore the value of the business cannot be resolved in the marketplace, IMO. Growth becomes less relevant in this scenario.
    Oct 29 02:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Exactly, why bother with the facts? Who's got the time for that? Wait until the jobs report, the facts are always ignored on CNBC during that release.
    Oct 29 03:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Good points. Why can't people understand that desktop and laptop sales slowing down is related to disruptive technology? Weird, they always seem to make that a macro economic problem.

    Secondly, what is with the "broken business model/cannibalization" stories. If cannibalization yields growth, I'm all for it. Cook makes this exact point in the transcript.
    Oct 29 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fall Volatility Ahead? The Futures, Options, And ETPs Are Already Expensive [View article]
    dman22x,

    A. there's no need to be rude, we can disagree without calling anyone dumb. I'm just sharing some ideas, and frankly these ideas have been working since the launch of this ETP.

    B. As far as potential returns on VXX puts, chart some 2013's and see what they look like. Financial shocks like last fall offer opportunities to get long VXX puts.
    Aug 24 07:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fall Volatility Ahead? The Futures, Options, And ETPs Are Already Expensive [View article]
    Fabmarch53,

    VXX puts are far less risky than shorting the VXX as the risk is defined to your investment in the case of major market shock. VXX Jan 2013 $20 puts purchased in January have returned 300% so far this year, for example.

    Furthermore, the weeklies have tremendous asymmetric return profiles when played at certain points in the option cycle.

    Lastly, as I said in the article, you can put on a LEAP position, and during temporary volatility spikes you can add to these periodically, as volatility hedges are expensive over the long-term.
    Aug 24 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fall Volatility Ahead? The Futures, Options, And ETPs Are Already Expensive [View article]
    CMA,

    "The $VIX options don't price off cash VIX but off VIX futures"

    This is not the case. The VIX options reflect the forward value of the spot VIX. The futures MAY be an indicator, but it is a separate market and this less liquid market has been affected by the high volume in the ETP's.

    The VXX options price off of VIX futures and the other characteristics of the ETP.
    Aug 24 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life Story Of A Historic Coal Bull [View article]
    Interesting comment from CLD's Q, I haven't heard the hydro electric variable before:

    "While the outlook for coal demand for the rest of the year will depend on summer temperatures, economic growth and the level of gas production and gas prices, the warm and dry conditions during the 2011/2012 winter season limited snowfall for many locations. Consequently hydro-electric generation is expected to be significantly reduced, which should support incremental demand for both natural gas and coal generated electricity in the coming months."
    May 17 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
    This is very heavily shorted. Approximately 12 million shares.
    Mar 30 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: 10.9.09 [View instapost]
    Well, considering I plan on holding long, I bought what now amounts to 1/3 of my position today at $5.02. Why? Unless I am incorrect, the market cap is 210 mm, and they have 150mm in cash and a recently approved cancer drug. Today's dip is proof of the fickle speculative pharma trading crowd-over exuberant to the upside and downside. this is a buy here if you have a shred of patience.
    Oct 9 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX And VXX Fall As The Markets Fall: Confused? [View article]
    There are a lot of assumptions in there. Should I build a bunker, get some potato clocks, and load up on firearms? How will I be able to collect my CVOL profits when the global financial system crashes and I will need to trade bear skins for food?
    Nov 10 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX And The VXX May Present A Short-Term Opportunity For A 200-300% Return [View article]
    Ok, that is kind of the point of all the articles I have written. The entry point is key, and our firm specializes in volatility forecasting.
    Nov 5 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Yeah, I took the Jan 2013 call route myself....
    Oct 29 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Business school does a lot of things wrong. Ask Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, they are very vocal on that particular topic.
    Oct 29 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    I suppose you should be sending the analysts Xmas cards.
    Oct 29 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
92 Comments
56 Likes