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Scott Murray  

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  • Patriot Coal Is Not Going To Bankruptcy Court Anytime Soon [View article]
    I'm not blaming politics, but wondering what would happen to the coal industry with a change on Penn Ave?
    May 23, 2012. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: What You Need To Know [View article]
    The risk is pretty much taken out of the stock at this point. Risk reduces as the share price falls, not the opposite.
    May 22, 2012. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life Story Of A Historic Coal Bull [View article]
    Coal use rising in Europe:
    http://on.wsj.com/JL7P7N
    May 21, 2012. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Monthly Volatility Wave Can Help You Trade VXX And UVXY Options [View article]
    cma,

    1.Average historic vix: example: for day 3, all of the day 3's at the end of the day going back to 1993.
    2.yes (next week, vxx weeklies probably)
    3. short calls can get you burned quick, this week is a perfect example. I've learned my lesson to stick with the asymmetric risk /return scenario, defined risk in owning the options. I stick to covered positions.
    4. I call it "short and hold" I've had some of these vxx uvxy positions since last fall, so this is a minor blip. uvxy is down 70% this year.
    May 18, 2012. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Monthly Volatility Wave Can Help You Trade VXX And UVXY Options [View article]
    Day one is a Monday. As you may notice, Mondays are predisposed to high vol and Fridays low vol as options price in weekend decay and that effect raises the vix 2.3% on average on Mondays. Another important data point to know. The weekend effect. Warner covers it, and for theta geeks:http://www-bcf.usc.edu~christoj/pdf/jones_sh...
    May 18, 2012. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life Story Of A Historic Coal Bull [View article]
    Bob, risk falls as price falls. How can a $3.50 stock be all that risky?
    May 17, 2012. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life Story Of A Historic Coal Bull [View article]
    And this gem:
    "Coal-to-gas switching appears to be limited by infrastructure constraints, which currently limits further switching. Consequently, we do not expect significantly more switching from PRB coal to gas even if gas prices continue to fall. Conversely, we expect to see switching from gas back to coal to start once gas prices exceed $2.50 per mmBtu. We have adjusted our full year 2012 guidance to indicate our current expectations of the likely range of shipments assuming a normal summer.”
    May 17, 2012. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life Story Of A Historic Coal Bull [View article]
    Interesting comment from CLD's Q, I haven't heard the hydro electric variable before:

    "While the outlook for coal demand for the rest of the year will depend on summer temperatures, economic growth and the level of gas production and gas prices, the warm and dry conditions during the 2011/2012 winter season limited snowfall for many locations. Consequently hydro-electric generation is expected to be significantly reduced, which should support incremental demand for both natural gas and coal generated electricity in the coming months."
    May 17, 2012. 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Monthly Volatility Wave Can Help You Trade VXX And UVXY Options [View article]
    bil1026,

    My pleasure. I prefer being short UVXY and selling covered puts when the cycle is low. So around May 1, I was selling the puts against my short for some extra cash.
    May 17, 2012. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Monthly Volatility Wave Can Help You Trade VXX And UVXY Options [View article]
    Kelly,

    Try not to get wrapped up in Vix futures expiration. I only mentioned that before, just so that people knew when the VXX has the entire front month of futures in it's holdings. The vix cycle peaks around 10 trading days before options expiration. Euro panics throw this out the window, of course.

    I will close out the puts sometimes 3 days into the cycle if they have worked well. If not, I have more time for them to work. It's kind of a game-time decision, but you know that 10 days into the new cycle, vol starts to ramp again.

    You could definitely try to time the vix to move higher, but then you are fighting the natural headwinds when using the futures based ETFs. The actual VIX options are probably a better choice to play upside.
    May 17, 2012. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Or AIG - Which One To Buy? [View article]
    Sure Buffett would love it, if Benmosche would offer 6% and a slew of warrants due in eternity at $29/share.
    May 17, 2012. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX And The VXX ETF Have Probably Hit Their Short-Term Peaks [View article]
    dbaldwin,
    Your comment is even more wrong regarding when I said to consider a short. "in the next few days", not on the 13th. So, if you shorted yesterday, you probably have a nice entry point.

    I highly suggest you do more homework on the "fear gauge" instead of watching CNBC all day. It is more than it "seems to be".
    May 16, 2012. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX And The VXX ETF Have Probably Hit Their Short-Term Peaks [View article]
    "On your theory, during the volatility spike of 2008-09, the VIX should have suddenly collapsed in October"

    People are having a difficult time understanding the median performance of the vix during the monthly cycle. I'm going to write another article to clear this up.
    May 16, 2012. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX And The VXX ETF Have Probably Hit Their Short-Term Peaks [View article]
    I don't really understand where you are coming from with this comment, as the UVXY is down 76% year to date.
    May 16, 2012. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX And The VXX ETF Have Probably Hit Their Short-Term Peaks [View article]
    dbaldwin,

    If you actually read the article, it expressly states:
    "we can expect heightened volatility for a few more days", and " and the week of May 20th has the lowest average volatility in the cycle." So, let's see what happens next week. Regardless, as I clearly stated, this is in a normal cycle, not during exogenous shocks. Please reread the article.
    May 16, 2012. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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