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Scott Ryan  

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  • Is Facebook Really Worth More Than Wal-Mart? A Value-Based Comparison [View article]
    It seems that you value companies based upon relativism.

    1. Your post demonstrates that in that you think of FB's intrinsic value is tied to the valuation of one uncorrelated company with vastly different margins, cash-flow, earnings growth and in an entirely different industry.

    2. You demonstrate relativist propensities in that you think the market price of FB 2 years ago should somehow be an eternal albatross hanging on FB's intrinsic value in perpetuity. The price of a company's share 2 years ago (when I bought FB as well) has nothing to do with its value today. No company triples in price before it doubles. No company triples it's revenue before it doubles it. No company triples it's earnings before it doubles. FB is demonstrating the fundamentals, making the price reasonable and I believe this is the year that it surpasses Google in market cap.

    Yet you speak in absolutes as though you are an authority as to the valuation based upon two relative aspects that have nothing to do with business fundamentals.

    This relativism, which is really technical disguised as fundamental analysis, fails in securities valuation as well as in public policy.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Really Worth More Than Wal-Mart? A Value-Based Comparison [View article]
    Hi AreYouRealllyAlpha,

    You probably are seeing ads but not realizing it because the ads are more benign than glaring commercials. I have clicked on them many times and later realized they were "sponsored posts". That means that I am anecdotal evidence, on many occasions, that FB ads are effective. Some of the ads are actually akin to valuable content.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Really Worth More Than Wal-Mart? A Value-Based Comparison [View article]
    In short, the article is more of the same insipid and useless nonsense that has been propounded as a bearish case on FB over the past 2 years.

    Personally, I found the Princeton rocket scientist's thesis more amusing. At least it was original.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Really Worth More Than Wal-Mart? A Value-Based Comparison [View article]
    I LOVE it when articles come out with asinine market cap comparisons between companies with absolutely ZERO correlation.

    I have been long FB since after the IPO tanked into the twenties. I had to buy more after this down-day blessing came out. The herd, Wall Street traders especially, have no concept of intrinsic value.

    Facebook is one of the top growth and top value companies in the market - simultaneously.

    The only way to make real returns is to be able to suffer fools. I have suffered many with FB over the past couple of years and it has paid handsomely. "Is FB really worth more than Wal-Mart?" Cheers!
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Becomes What Google Was In The 2000s And Microsoft Was In The 1990s [View article]
    Nice Dana! Glengarry Glen Ross right?
    Apr 29, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Becomes What Google Was In The 2000s And Microsoft Was In The 1990s [View article]
    ... or Tesla Motors TSLA. Wow. Talk about a generous premium.
    Apr 10, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Becomes What Google Was In The 2000s And Microsoft Was In The 1990s [View article]
    We may need your user name and password sfpdf. LOL. You can trust me. (I'm a Nigerian prince trying to escape my country with our fortune.)
    Apr 10, 2015. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Becomes What Google Was In The 2000s And Microsoft Was In The 1990s [View article]
    Yahoo, 19 years after going public, does not make as much revenue as Facebook did in year 1 of going public. How many billion subscribers does Yahoo have? How many hours a day do Yahoo users spend on Yahoo?

    How long after going public did it take Yahoo to turn a profit?

    Next why don't we compare FB to Winnebago Industries, Inc.
    NYSE: WGO

    Might as well.
    Apr 8, 2015. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Becomes What Google Was In The 2000s And Microsoft Was In The 1990s [View article]
    Yes, like the entire pharmaceutical industry , where they swing the bat spending hundreds of millions on new drugs and only about 2 out of ten, if that make it to market.

    If I don't like tech companies that swing the bat and innovate with calculated risk, I can buy a friggin bond. LOL.
    Apr 7, 2015. 12:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Poster Child Of 'Jobless' Companies [View article]
    That is the stale old short argument from the beginning. The same can be said of a search engine like Google – and it was said, ad nauseam, for the past 15 years! Google does have critical-mass as does FB but Facebook is FAR MORE “sticky” than a mere search engine.

    People go -where the people are- and Facebook has such critical-mass that they are for all intents and purposes – becoming – the Internet, more so since the world has been going mobile. The longer they continue, the more their users have –invested- in the service, i.e. years and decades of family correspondence over archived photos, deceased relatives with correspondence with them while they were alive and are now ongoing memorials.

    The grip they have is deep, really deep and the ads are becoming increasingly prevalent and increasingly relevant. I clicked on one today and was intrigues by it. I realized it said “sponsored” later band was astounded by how valuable it actually was to me and my interests. I had never clicked an old Internet “banner ad” in 20 years!

    I guess I should pity people who short-sell FB; but I don’t because suffering trite theses over and over again becomes tiresome to combat in the arena of ideas. Facebook is called a "bubble" who were clearly not active investors in the 90s. If they were investing, they didn't learn a thing. I was there shorting those Internet bubble stocks like YHOO, AOL and they were sporting higher market caps than FB when they never turned a profit, barely had a business plan and had a pittance of revenue compared to what FB has. For those who have understanding, Facebook is one of the best value stocks on the market while being a growth stock as well. Shorting Facebook is not just ignorant. It is borderline perverse.

    Wait and see. This quarter FB is going to blow away expectations all across the board. Zuck will reach the trillion market cap before GOOG.
    Apr 1, 2015. 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Poster Child Of 'Jobless' Companies [View article]
    "All these social media companies are huge bubbles now. All likely to burst as soon as Wall St wakes up...."

    You're going to be bitter when Facebook continues to deliver astounding revenue, earnings and cash-flow growth.

    It reminds me of those short-sellers who were beating the drum about Google's bubble for the past 10 years... "wait until Wall Street wakes up and realizes that 97% of Google's revenue comes from advertising..." The searchers are still searching through GOOG a decade later. The revenue is still close to 90% from ad revenue...
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Poster Child Of 'Jobless' Companies [View article]
    Thanks. True about AMZN's profit but what I really believe about AMZN is that they can profit "at will" - and will profit substantially when they are ready. They spend a great deal on futuristic endeavors but I believe are going to choose to balance it somewhat due to pressure from shareholders.

    But unlike with many brick and mortar retailers, it really is a choice with Amazon. I am no longer long AMZN as I cashed out my calls on them a few days after the last earnings call. I am long FB though and am praying that it drops again so I can buy even more. I firmly believe FB is going to destroy, utterly crush expectations in every metric this quarter from what I am observing.

    I know what you mean about revenue/employee being more useful for analysis of a company's financials but I still think what Mark was writing was interesting. It's more academic but it is an interesting observation and commentary on the trend he was looking to highlight with regard to employment.
    Mar 31, 2015. 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Poster Child Of 'Jobless' Companies [View article]
    I liked you article. I have been thinking a great deal about that lately too. As a correlation to that, I have been watching the revenue to employee on these companies as well.

    I was amazed by how much more revenue per employee Amazon has than ALL of its retail competitors. The same would be true of their market cap to employee. It seems as though it would leave a great deal more room for profits than their competitors. Looking at JCP for example, when you only have $107,000 in revenue per employee, how much can you possibly profit after PAYING the employee, not to mention all of the high overhead?

    Compare that to Amazon’s $577,000 per employee and no retail space.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Facebook Can Use Messenger Platform To Create Billions Of Dollars [View article]
    I would agree with your studies about people being nuts Stanward99. How many more are on subscription drugs that cloud their perspective of reality?
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Facebook Can Use Messenger Platform To Create Billions Of Dollars [View article]
    I was just wondering when the moronic Facebook stories were going to start circulating again. Maybe they can dust off the old Princeton rocket scientist's study based upon the behavior of bacteria. Or how about the mass "teen exodus" thesis? Oh, I almost forgot "Mark Zuckerberg ran psychological tests on FB users!!!"
    As a veteran investment professional, I recall all of the same prosaic nonsense Apple and Google took all the way up from the amateur short trolls.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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