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I am an independent investor blogging at Scott's Investments (http://scottsinvestments.blogspot.com/). My site focuses on consolidating and tracking free online investment resources for the public with an emphasis on ETFs, portfolio strategies, and macroeconomics.
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  • Combining Value and Earning Surprises
     Below is another great study profile at cxoadvisory.com with regards to value stocks and positive earnings surprises. The study was conducted by Zhipeng Yan and Yan Zhao and CXO summarizes below:

    Using stock price, earnings estimate and accounting data for a broad sample of firms over the period June 1984 through December 2008, they find that:

    • Value stocks are less volatile than growth stocks around earnings announcement dates.
    • Value stocks exhibit much larger positive drifts than growth stocks after positive earnings surprises and positive earnings announcement abnormal returns.
    • Growth stocks exhibit much larger negative drifts than value stocks following negative earnings surprises and negative earnings announcement abnormal returns.
    • A trading strategy that is long value stocks with both positive earnings surprises and positive earnings announcement abnormal returns and short growth stocks with both negative generates annualized size-adjusted returns of 16.6% to 18.8% (before trading frictions). Most of the return comes from the long side.
    CXO concludes: "In summary, investors may be able to achieve abnormal returns by combining value and earnings surprises, with most of the benefit coming from value stocks with positive earnings surprises and positive earnings announcement abnormal returns."


    How could an investor apply this in practical terms? A simple screen for value stocks with recent earnings surprises would be the easiest place to start. I used Zacks Premium screener for the screen below, primarily because they have the most robust screener I have used for earnings surprises.

    In addition, I have further filtered the stocks to include small cap stocks (defined here as a market cap of less then $1 billion). There are rationals (such as here and here) for screening for small caps versus the entire market, but one could apply the value/earnings surprise theory to stocks of all sizes.

    The screen criteria are below, along with the results using data collected at the end of last week:

    Last EPS Surprise (%) >= "20"
    Price/Book <= "1"
    Last Quarter's EPS >= "0"
    Twelve Month Trailing EPS >= "0"
    Avg EPS Surprise (Last 4 Quarters) >= "20"
    Previous EPS Surprise (%) >= "20"
    Average Volume (20 Days) >= "25000"
    Market Cap (millions) <= "1000"

    The screen results:

    Company NameTickerZacks RankTrendLast EPS Surprise (%)PriceAvg EPS Surprise (Last 4 Quarters)Price / Book
    INFINITY PPTYIPCC3Here46.9439.1162.650.9
    CABELAS INCCAB2Here61.1112.9850.420.9
    CELERA CORPCRA3Here1006.3733.330.87
    AMER RAILCARARII3Here15010.7121.250.68
    INFORMATION SVCIII1Here9003.52433.330.85
    ATLAS AIR WORLDAAWW3Here22.8128.5330.230.81
    FIRST INDL RLTYFR3Here21.284.99117.130.23
    WINTHROP REALTYFUR3Here118.759.0152.890.72
    KADANT INCKAI1Here126.3213.9192.290.87
    BANCORP BNK/THETBBK2Here5005.27182.50.54
    UTD AMER INDEMNINDM2Here153.336.8553.830.51
    OSG AMERICA LPOSP4Here25010.2150.210.37
    SALEM COMMSALMN/AHere5503.89172.50.47
    PARKER DRILLINGPKD3Here3004.981450.96
    PNM RESOURCESPNM3Here53.6611.2988.530.55
    QLT INCQLTIN/AHere253.82106.250.67
    STARTEK INCSRT4Here205.8968.390.76
    SUSQUEHANNA BSHSUSQ3Here1755.571.330.28
    KINDRED HLTHCRKND3Here40015.5128.070.64
    WILMINGTON TRSTWL4Here171.4312.97127.860.91
    REGIS CORP/MNRGS2Here38.115.9932.610.92
    KIMBALL INTL BKBALBN/AHere166.677.25116.030.7
    SHOE CARNIVALSCVL2Here30015.3363.130.94
    WESTELL TECH-AWSTL4Here33.331.1866.670.98
    no disclosures
    Tags: INDM, KAI, KBALB, KND, OSP, PKD, PNM, QLTI, RGS, SALM, SCVL, SRT, SUSQ, TBBK, WL, WSTL
    Nov 19 07:30 pm | Link | Comment!
  • More Evidence in Support of a Fundamental Index
     wrote a book review recently on The Fundamental Index: A Better Way to Invest. I had a very favorable impression of the book and the evidence presented by the book. I've been browsing CXOAG quite a bit recently and found an article, based on studies of European stocks, that offers more evidence in favor of a fundamental index versus a cap-weighted index:
     

     

    Capitalization-weighted stock indexes arguably incorporate a performance drag by overweighting overvalued stocks and underweighting undervalued stocks. In their February 2009 paper entitled "Fundamental Indexing: An Analysis of the Returns, Risks and Costs of Applying the Strategy", Roel Houwer and Auke Plantinga examine the raw and risk-adjusted returns of hypothetical indexes of European stocks weighted by dividend, book value, revenue and operating income. They take the capitalization-weighted Stoxx 600 Index as a benchmark. Using monthly stock returns and firm fundamental data for the Stoxx 600, along with relevant risk-adjustment data, for the period 1993-2007,they conclude that:

    • The average return of each fundamental index is higher than that of the Stoxx 600 Index (see the chart below).
    • The fundamental indexes tilt more toward value (high book-to-market ratio) stocks and small-capitalization stocks than does the capitalization-weighted benchmark index, but the fundamental indexes still outperform after adjusting for market,size and book-to-market ratio risk factors.
    • Turnovers for the fundamental indexes are generally much higher than that for the capitalization-weighted benchmark index. However, the fundamental indexes still outperform the the capitalization-weighted index after accounting for reasonable trading frictions.
    Nov 19 07:28 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Win Your Share of $5000
     Win Your Share of $5000
     

    One of my favorite finance sites, INO.com, is giving away $5000 in December:

    INO.com invites you to enter the “Trader’s Blog Holiday Giveaway.” Enter for your chance to win one of twelve prizes, worth over $5,000.00 total to be given away.

    INO will be selecting one winner every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday starting on November 30th through December 25th. The winner will select their choice of prize and the remainder of the prizes will be available for the next winner picked.

    You can read about the prizes up for grab here

    Good Luck and Happy Holidays,

    Scott

    Nov 19 07:28 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Win Your Share of $5000
     Win Your Share of $5000
     

    One of my favorite finance sites, INO.com, is giving away $5000 in December:

    INO.com invites you to enter the “Trader’s Blog Holiday Giveaway.” Enter for your chance to win one of twelve prizes, worth over $5,000.00 total to be given away.

    INO will be selecting one winner every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday starting on November 30th through December 25th. The winner will select their choice of prize and the remainder of the prizes will be available for the next winner picked.

    You can read about the prizes up for grab here

    Good Luck and Happy Holidays,

    Scott

    Nov 19 07:27 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Small Cap Value Momentum Portfolios
     I've been experimenting with some basic, easy to implement small cap value momentum stock screens. I would be curious if anyone had any feedback or suggestions, as I would like to get it started by the end of the month.

    The basic rationale behind a small cap value momentum screen is that value and momentum have historically been two factors that lead to excess stock returns. In addition, small cap stocks historically outperform their larger counterparts. Thus, a small cap value momentum screen should, in theory, present some nice opportunities. Obviously, as with anything I post, the screen and its results will not be investment recommendations. Do your own due diligence!

    Some of the academic rational and research behind a momentum/value combination can be found here and here.
    Nov 18 12:18 am | Link | Comment!
  • Small Cap Value Momentum Portfolios
     I've been experimenting with some basic, easy to implement small cap value momentum stock screens. I would be curious if anyone had any feedback or suggestions, as I would like to get it started by the end of the month.

    The basic rationale behind a small cap value momentum screen is that value and momentum have historically been two factors that lead to excess stock returns. In addition, small cap stocks historically outperform their larger counterparts. Thus, a small cap value momentum screen should, in theory, present some nice opportunities. Obviously, as with anything I post, the screen and its results will not be investment recommendations. Do your own due diligence!

    Some of the academic rational and research behind a momentum/value combination can be found here and here.
    Nov 18 12:18 am | Link | Comment!
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