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Scott Sacknoff

 
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  • Helicopter Business On The Rise [View article]
    Only you can decide when to take profits but congrats on an investment that has gained 49% in essentially a quarter.
    Mar 3 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helicopter Business On The Rise [View article]
    Thanks for the addition. There are a number of contractors working for the primes. CPI Aerospace has been on the watch list for the SPADE Defense Index. Although it currently meets the rules for inclusion regarding market cap and price (http://bit.ly/Zfmeji) it needs a higher trading volume to qualify.
    Mar 3 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helicopter Business On The Rise [View article]
    Major defense programs can run 15-20 year cycles from the time they are announced to when a program is complete. Factor in when they get funding and an 'old' program can be a new one. Look at the replacement for the White House helicopters -- the program was proposed, cancelled, restructured, and now new money allocated so that it considered to be moving forward. As far as citing a fine, sadly fines in the defense sector are nothing new or unusual, just part of the business.
    Mar 3 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Historic Highs, Aerospace & Defense Forecast For 2014 [View article]
    As an index manager, I try not to give advice on specific firms. In general you are correct that there was a boost last year to civilian weapons and ammunition sales in advance of fears that new regulations would come down in the wake of several public shooting events. As war efforts wind down and the Army reduces their manpower levels, an assumption can be made that ammunition used both live and in training should decline. As far as carrier cutbacks, the latest reports from Defense News indicate that the overall budget for the Navy may not see reductions as large as the Army but as it relates specifically to carriers, I'd have to look at the final budget when it is issued.
    Feb 27 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Nearly 50% Gains In 2013, An Aerospace & Defense Look At 2014 [View article]
    Investors should never feel bad that they didn't profit more; gains are gains. The question you face is not whether buying LMT for the dividend has been a good play, but what your plan is going forward: Buy, Hold, Sell, or move to a related position
    Jan 7 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Nearly 50% Gains In 2013, An Aerospace & Defense Look At 2014 [View article]
    DC disfunction kept a lot of people out of the sector, so you weren't alone
    Jan 7 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media proposes to assume full ownership of Sirius XM [View news story]
    As if Sirius as in investment didn't drive us all crazy at times...just think of the fun over the coming month(s) as arbitrage experts enter the fray. I expect we'll see volitility and high trading volume. For those that don't follow, there are investors that specialize in pocketing the pennies to keep the deal in balance; ie. if Sirius goes up 10c and that translates into a $2 move in Liberty and Liberty only rises $1.50, they will buy LIberty and/or sell Sirius until the valuations balance to the final deal value.

    BTW....did anyone listen to the conference call? Was there a date provided for a hoped for closing?
    Jan 3 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media proposes to assume full ownership of Sirius XM [View news story]
    Options would continue to trade until they expire or when the deal is completed, whichever comes first. As this is a stock deal, typically, options are exchanged for new options at the conversion date per the merger agreement but that is subject to an announcement by the listing exchange.
    Jan 3 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media proposes to assume full ownership of Sirius XM [View news story]
    Agree.

    FYI: Had offered to be part of the committee to review the deal but was informed by IR that they plan to just use the existing independent board members.
    Jan 3 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media proposes to assume full ownership of Sirius XM [View news story]
    Noticed here (and elsewhere on the net) a lot of confusion. Some clarification:

    Liberty did not offer $3.68, they offered a ratio of their share price that amounts to 39% of the new company. Were it a cash offer, the assumption would be correct but this is a stock offer. In other words, calls for the offer price raised to $4 or $4.50 is essentially irrelevant, the price offered will float depending on how Liberty's stock does. If Liberty's stock rises, so does the value offered for each Sirius share. The real question for the committee to determine is if the 39% is the right ratio. The value of the deal (to Sirius shareholders) goes up if...(1) Liberty's stock rises, and/or (2) the ratio is increased.

    It will take time (the weekend at least) for analysts to evaluate if 39% is the correct number or should it be higher. Computation of this will depend on the total value of Sirius to the new LMCA as a whole, factoring out what Liberty is contributing via the shares in Sirius they own as well as the other business lines, cash, assets, and debt they are bringing to the table.

    Imagine others (as well as myself) will be working on it this weekend...
    Personally, I'd have hoped for an initial offer level closer to the $4 January options expiration price but we will see what happens to the market as shorts close their out-of-money positions in the next few days.
    Jan 3 06:57 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media proposes to assume full ownership of Sirius XM [View news story]
    It's confusing but the factor of two is simply to get the market caps to line up with their 39% proposal. LMCA A&B holders get two shares of C for each existing one they hold. Sirius gets 0.076 per share
    Jan 3 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Disappoints Investors [View article]
    There are two important things to remember: (1) the disappointment was from certain investors not happy with not beating analyst forecasts not a diminishing of the business -- free cash et al are up YoY and (2) the new contract terms with GM make comparing YoY or QoQ subs and revenues like apples and oranges; SIRI is sacrificing near-term sub increases for long-term profitability. Ultimately new sub growth will/should shrink, the important number is free cash flow and sustained profitability from the existing base.
    Oct 25 03:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acquisitions Sirius XM Should Consider [View article]
    CN. Absolutely true. A history of successful products and brands would likely show that many of today's billion dollar businesses were developed or evolved purely by coincidence, accident, or luck; 'post-it notes' comes to mind. Still, sports were one of the more profitable content avenues even back then since it involves lots of live programming which requires real-time viewing. The emergence of networks filling the air with non-original programming (ie repeats entering syndication) is a more recent thing. Still those networks that make the most money rely on original prgoramming.

    For those curious about your description of the old ESPN, if you've seen the movie Dodgeball, ESPN "The Ocho", you'll understand.

    CN, keep up the good work. Yours are one of the people I read.
    Aug 10 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acquisitions Sirius XM Should Consider [View article]
    Agree completely
    Aug 9 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acquisitions Sirius XM Should Consider [View article]
    Ultimately its two aspects of the entertainment market. Don't just think about playing the radio in your home TV or watching movies in the backseat of your car. It's the portability, mobility factor associated with smart phones, iPads, etc. Both services 'stream' their content and right now it is essentially separate services. When you sign up for cable (video) you get 'radio' channels with music by theme as well. The size of both customer bases wasn't to compare but to state that there is likely significant overlap, so if a deal were to take place, you can't just add their customer bases together and say, see, 25 million additional customers. Those that already pay for both will likely want a discount for bundling. Just like there will always be people who want one or the other, there will always be people who want everything bundled together in a nice package but with a discount. Hope that answers both of your questions
    Aug 9 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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72 Comments
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