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Scott Wachsler

 
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  • Rudolph Technologies - Hopeful Investing [View article]
    CT Programmer;

    The report was not to get anyone to change their mind or their position. As I noted, when you drill down through their financials, you come up with a stock that has a value considerably greater than it's current pricing.

    If you click on the company name, you can download my worksheet which was the basis for my report and hopefully but to rest your comment about innuendo and speculation.

    Were I shareholder, and there are some extremely well managed money managers that have substantial client positions in the stock, I would simply have to ask myself some hard questions about maintaining a position at this time.

    The idea behind my report was merely to highlight what I saw and leave the rest for those interested to decide for themselves.

    As to the days of the tech bubble, you are quite correct, a comparison of prices from today to back then does seem unrealistic. The point was that the stock price doesn't really seem to have done much over that 14 year period of time, which made me wonder, why will it move higher going forward since nothing much seems to have changed.

    As always I appreciate your comments, good or bad, as it they help to fuel an on going discussion which will hopefully makes us all better investors.

    Wax
    Jan 27 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson - Real Straight Shooters [View article]
    firsttracks;

    Great comment regarding buyback valuation. I realize much of if was for illustrative purposes only, used to highlight the mechanics of the valuation. The problem I have with it, is it requires assumptions and guess work.

    For one helluva lot less money, the company could simply do a reverse split and miracle of miracles, fewer shares outstanding, higher stock price. Done and done.

    Wax
    Jan 24 04:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson - Real Straight Shooters [View article]
    IdahoInvestor;

    The shorts are not expecting a collapse at all. In fact, included on the worksheet you can download, if like firsttracks, you follow the link, is a financial metric called Days to Cover. For SWHC, the Days to Cover number is almost 14. That amount of time is double the average amount of time normally set aside to cover a short position.

    Wax
    Jan 24 04:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson - Real Straight Shooters [View article]
    firstracks;

    I am all for your comments regarding my report, be they good or bad.

    But when you say I provide no financial metrics, then I realize you did not read the report.

    In the very first sentence the name of the company is linked to the worksheet I used to help me produce this report. If you would like financial metrics, just click on the link.

    I don't ask you for anything such as an e-mail address, a user name, none of that. I'm not going to send you a "free" report, nothing.

    All you have to do is follow the link. For that matter you don't even have to download the PDF file, you can view it on-line.

    Wax
    Jan 24 04:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson - Real Straight Shooters [View article]
    firsttracks;

    Certainly I misunderstand many things, including the cash required to repurchase shares.

    While a share repurchase program may initially keep share prices propped up, the single thing that will do that faster than anything else is earnings, which is where I would be spending my cash were it me.

    Wax
    Jan 24 04:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy - Sour Is The Smell [View article]
    Thanx eltoro...I try.

    Wax
    Jan 22 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy - Sour Is The Smell [View article]
    marissamae;

    Certainly Morningstar is a very well respected company and many folks use their site as part of their investment research, just as they do the ValueLine site.

    But I remind you that companies like Morningstar base their analysis and subsequent valuation numbers on a company's financial results from a single quarter.

    That is the reason you will read that some analyst has rated some stock a buy with a price target of $x in March only to see the same analyst rate the same stock a sell with a lower price target in April.

    How anyone can add long term value to their portfolio investing that way?

    In the end, the only people that make any money following the Morningstars and the ValueLines and the rest of the Wall Street crowd, are the Morningstars and the ValueLines and the Wall Street crowd.

    If you read through this thread you will see that I was told to get a grip because I refuse to use numbers from a single quarter, preferring instead to use the latest four unaudited quarters and the latest annual audited numbers as part of my valuation work.

    Admittedly I am I conservative in my approach to investing. I use annual financial data and prior year earnings growth numbers.

    And I do so because for working folks, the group that makes up the vast number of people in North America, risk capital is hard to come by.

    Wax
    Jan 18 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy - Sour Is The Smell [View article]
    All, once again I get what you are saying about the debt, whether my quoted numbers are still correct or not, etc. That was not my point in highlighting the amount of debt.

    I merely highlighted the debt to show the amount and the year over year amount of increase in percent in effort to ask this one question.

    What did the company get in return for allowing its debt to increase? To my eye it received nothing which was my point.

    I never mentioned or implied that the company might go out of business, that it was financially weak, none of that.

    All I did was highlight some financial metrics and ask why increase the company's exposure to financial risk when it seems there was no exposure to financial reward?

    phil2k...I feel your pain, but realize that pipeline transmission can be dictated by the price of the product being transmitted.

    I have no idea where crude or natural gas prices are at the moment, nor how much is stockpiled.

    But for some reason it seems that something I read on Rig Zone is making me think that there is quite a bit of both.

    Don't know what your cost basis is, but from a very long term buy and hold guy, if you don't need the money, just forget you own the stock.

    When you actually need the money,,,more often than not, you will be surprised how well you have done.

    That's the reason if I can't commit the funds to a minimum 5 year hold, I won't buy the stock.

    Wax
    Jan 16 04:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy - Sour Is The Smell [View article]
    tmuck;

    Not sure how to be much plainer than this...

    "Perhaps the single thing that stood out to me as I reviewed the company's latest annual financials..."

    Almost everyone has gone to using quarterly financial data so yeah I sort of do have a "grip".

    More serious individual investors glance at the 10Q stuff, but use the 10K stuff for financial analysis because it is audited.

    Up until the audit, a company's quarterly financials are always subject to, and often do, change.

    For me personally, I started my investing life as a value investor and did very well. But then the 1990s came along, specifically the tech bubble and I got away from my roots.

    Watching one helluva pile of my money evaporate into thin air got my attention and I refocused on what I knew, value investing.

    Perhaps not the "grip" you think I should have, but it is the one that works quite well for me.

    Thanx for you comments, they are always appreciated.

    Wax
    Jan 15 05:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy - Sour Is The Smell [View article]
    Thanx to everyone for their comments. I appreciate them all, good or bad. I simply did not like the stock because I believe it to be currently selling for more than it is worth.

    As to someone's comments regarding free cash flow, I believe if you will look, I said it had fallen by 53%.

    Someone else also mentioned the amount of interest the company paid. My article did not mention the amount, it mentioned the rate which I thought was a bit excessive given today's cost of money.

    As to CAPEX, again I did not mention a specific amount, I just noted that it was less year over year.

    I also noted that several other financial metrics were lower year over year, and since it was brought up, as was EBITDA, which was lower year over year by 5%.

    Now to debt, My point was, in my opinion, the company's debt levels are excessive. My question about debt was why did it increase when almost all of the other financial metrics decreased.

    Like it or not, debt is a necessary evil. Management allowed the company's debt to increase, but it appears basis the company's latest 10k filing that it received nothing for this debt increase.

    And that made me wonder, if the company got nothing in return for increasing the debt, why increase it at all?

    As to the other things that someone said make my article worthless, all you need do is click on the name of the company at the start of the article and my worksheet, with all of the metrics you find paramount to equity analysis can be downloaded.

    As to a hidden agenda, I don't have one at all. These were my thoughts regarding this company and why I would sell it if I owned it and pass on its purchase if I did not own it.

    I attempted to state my conclusions clearly and in a short form article, and, I provided documentation that supported the conclusions I came to. I am sorry nobody appears to have actually read it.

    For those that do own the stock, I wish you all the best with your investment.

    Wax
    Jan 14 04:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. - Value Alert [View instapost]
    BLM;

    You can't win them all. I'm glad you are doing well with the stock and I hope that continues.

    Wax
    Dec 3 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Cubic Corporation Fairly Valued? [View article]
    pillpoppinpuppy;

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Wax
    Sep 8 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Cubic Corporation Fairly Valued? [View article]
    JPM is in the business of making money, and they, unlike us mortals, have all the computing power needed to stay ahead of most of the markets.

    So when a company adds a contract such as the one CUB received, especially one paid for by you and me, their analysts jump on it while the news is still fresh.

    It is good for their trading desk, it is good for their institutional clients, and it is good for the research group. What I produce at Seeking Alpha, JPM produces for $250 and up.

    The checks and balances for small, individual investors, is having at least some reasonable guess regarding fair value of the company before accepting the advise of a JPM.

    Wax
    Sep 6 05:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Cubic Corporation Fairly Valued? [View article]
    pillpoppingpuppy;

    The simple answer to your question is yes. Anytime a company has an opportunity to increase revenue, it benefits. Even if the revenue is earnings zero, the company benefits.

    In the case of Cubic, as with almost all government contractors, what was awarded to the company falls within their business model, so both the government and the company know what to expect.

    What the company does not yet know, is how much the contract extensions will be, and there will be many of them.

    So over the life of the contract, I would think the company will make a fairly handsome return.

    Wax
    Sep 5 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Buy URS Corporation? [View article]
    Thank you Dan...
    Aug 16 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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