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Scott Wachsler's  Instablog

Scott Wachsler
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I manage Wax Ink.net, a baseline equity research company comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years, and believe that patience is the key to successful... More
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  • Performance - Week Ending 03/27/2015

    The Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.5% for the week.

    By comparison, the Dow was down 2.3%, the Nasdaq was down 2.7%, the S&P 500 was down 2.2%, the Russell 2000 was down 2.0%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 15.7%.

    Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 4.3%, the Dow is down 0.6%, the Nasdaq is up 3.3%, the S&P 500 is up 0.1%, the Russell 2000 is up 3.0%, and the VIX is higher by 9.8%.

    The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 55% cash, 45% equities, and 0% bonds. There was no change to the total number of shares held.

    Weekly Winners
    This week's portfolio winners were offshore contractor McDermott International (NYSE: MDR), up 10%, small tool maker LS Starrett Company (NYSE: SCX), up 3%, and container maker Myers Industries (NYSE: MYE), up 2%.

    Weekly Losers
    This week's portfolio losers were trucking company ArcBest Corporation (Nasdaq: ARCB), down 8%, steel cylinder maker Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR), down 5%, and refiner HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC), down 3%.

    Portfolio Duds
    The portfolio's worst performing stocks remain building materials company Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), down 3% since being added to the portfolio, and municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 72% since being added to the portfolio.

    Worksheets
    Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

    Worksheets updated last week may be downloaded by clicking on the links (company name) below.

    Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE: OIS) - FYE 12/2014

    National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) - FYE 12/2014

    Fastenal Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: FAST) - FYE 12/2014

    Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) - FYE 12/2014

    The Brink's Company (NYSE: OLN) - FYE 12/2014

    Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: WLL) - FYE 12/2014

    Please note that worksheets are updated basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

    Reasonable Value Estimates
    Reasonable value estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance and investing philosophy.

    Reasonable value estimates were established or revised this week for Oil States International at $71-$73, National Oilwell Varco at $69-$77, Fastenal at $32-$41, Olin Corporation at $29-$37, The Brink's Companyat $9-$14, and

    Whiting Petroleum Corporation at $25-$27.

    Have a great week.

    Wax

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency
    Copyright © 2015 Wax Ink

    Mar 28 9:04 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Performance - Week Ending 03/20/2015

    Performance - Week Ending 03/20/2015
    The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 0.3% for the week.

    By comparison, the Dow was up 2.1%, the Nasdaq was up 3.2%, the S&P 500 was down 2.7%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.8%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 18.6%.

    Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 3.8%, the Dow is up 1.7%, the Nasdaq is up 6.1%, the S&P 500 is up 2.4%, the Russell 2000 is up 5.1%, and the VIX is lower by 5.1%.

    The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 55% cash, 45% equities, and 0% bonds. There was no change to the total number of shares held.

    Weekly Winners
    This week's portfolio winners were steel cylinder maker Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR), up 7%, building materials company Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), up 6%, and refiner HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC), up 4%.

    Weekly Losers
    This week's portfolio losers were municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 8%, container maker Myers Industries (NYSE: MYE), down 6%, and small tool maker LS Starrett (NYSE: SCX), down 5%.

    Portfolio Duds
    The portfolio's worst performing stocks remain building materials company Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), down 3% since being added to the portfolio, and municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 71% since being added to the portfolio.

    Special Notes
    On March 16, 2015, Myers Industries notified the SEC that they would not be able to file their FYE 2014 Form 10-K on time. The reason cited was the discovery of accounting irregularities in their Brazilian office.

    It appears to me that the markets are pricing Layne Christensen for bankruptcy. Indeed there have been any number of folks that have asked me why I have not cut my losses and moved on. I remember the same discussion several years ago regarding Griffon Corporation. At one point I was down almost 50% and I would not sell. Today I am down 3% in that stock. The point is, stuff happens and when it does you either believe in your analysis or you do not.

    In my opinion the same thing will, over time, happen for Layne. While I believe management is inept, ignorant would be a better word actually, I don't believe them to be dishonest. Certainly they have no understanding at all for the economies they serve. And during this time of economic crisis, a crisis of their own making, I would be paying more attention to my business than I would Wall Street were I management, but as I have just said, I now realize just how inept management is. Regardless, it is in my portfolio and it is staying in my portfolio until it recovers to a point that I can sell it for a profit, or becomes worthless.

    Lastly, yes, I understand lost opportunity cost. But it has been my experience that the folks that start bringing up opportunity cost have no idea what opportunity costs are, or how they apply. Remember, lost opportunity costs are never known until an investor is no longer invested.

    Worksheets
    Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

    Worksheets updated last week may be downloaded by clicking on the links (company name) below.

    The L.S. Starrett Company (NYSE: SCX) - FYE 06/2014

    ArcBest Corporation (Nasdaq: ARCB) - FYE 12/2014

    General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) - FYE 09/2014

    Penn National Gaming, Inc. (Nasdaq: PENN) - FYE 12/2014

    Please note that worksheets are updated basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

    Reasonable Value Estimates
    Reasonable value estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance and investing philosophy.

    Reasonable value estimates were established or revised this week for The L.S. Starrett Company at $31-$40, ArcBest Corporation at $37-$45, General Electric at $35-$45, and Penn National Gaming at ($6)-($8).

    Have a great week.

    Wax

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency
    Copyright © 2015 Wax Ink

    Mar 21 9:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Performance - Week Ending 03/13/2015

    Performance - Week Ending 03/13/2015
    The Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.3% for the week.

    By comparison, the Dow was down 0.6%, the Nasdaq was down 1.1%, the S&P 500 was down 0.9%, the Russell 2000 was up 1.2%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 5.3%.

    Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 4.1%, the Dow is down 0.4%, the Nasdaq is up 2.9%, the S&P 500 is down 0.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 2.3%, and the VIX is higher by 16.6%.

    The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 55% cash, 45% equities, and 0% bonds. There was no change to the total number of shares held.

    Weekly Winners
    This week's portfolio winners were infrastructure supplier LB Foster (Nasdaq: FSTR), up 20%, building materials company Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), up 2%, and trucking company ArcBest Corporation (Nasdaq: ARCB), up 2%.

    Weekly Losers
    This week's portfolio losers were municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 20%, small tool maker LS Starrett (NYSE: SCX), down 6%, and chicken grease king Darling Ingredients (NYSE: DAR), down 5%.

    Portfolio Duds
    The portfolio's worst performing stocks remain building materials company Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), down 8% since being added to the portfolio, and municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 68% since being added to the portfolio.

    Worksheets
    Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

    Worksheets updated last week may be downloaded by clicking on the links (company name) below.

    Darling Ingredients (NYSE: DAR) - FYE 12/2014

    Schweitzer-Maudit International (NYSE: SWM) - FYE 12/2014

    Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF) - FYE 09/2014

    The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (NYSE: GT) - FYE 12/2014

    LB Foster Company (Nasdaq: FSTR) - FYE 12/2014

    Please note that worksheets are updated basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

    Reasonable Value Estimates
    Reasonable value estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance and investing philosophy.

    Reasonable value estimates were established this week for Darling Ingredients at $20, Schweitzer-Maudit International at $42, Griffon Corporation at $11, Goodyear Tire and Rubber at $35, and LB Foster Company at $49.

    Have a great week.

    Wax

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency
    Copyright © 2015 Wax Ink

    Mar 14 9:28 AM | Link | Comment!
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