Scott Weitz

Home Builders Appear Stable: The Worst Is Likely Over

This is a very geographical dependent topic.

In Vegas, perhaps the worst is over, but now they've got 10s of thousands of empty homes.

I live in Seattle. We are not even close to bottom yet.

On a whole, I estimate that there is still a significant more amount of pain to come as most high end neighbordhoods have not fallen, yet the income fundamentals are not strong enough to support the inflated prices.

Two Sectors to Watch for a Return to the Glory Days

Health Tech- even with socialized medicine on its way?

Alternative Energy- one can only hope...this is the only bright spot in the economy. Personally, I still don't see how it makes economic sense yet...unless oil continues to rise.

Why the U.S. Dollar Chart Tells a Drastically Different Story than Financial Pundits

Disagree that this was all caused by a monetary crisis...this is a real estate crisis that in turn caused a monetary crisis by opening up the printing press.

Bill Miller vs. Meredith Whitney - Why They're Both Right

When the govt gives you money, and buys all your garbage from you, even a nimrod could make money.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Of course individual stocks can do well.

I'm referring to our macro situation...and its not pretty. Bankruptcies are climbing rapidly, foreclosures are off the charts, we're closer to socialism than most realize. Equities have rallied, but credit markets remain terrible.

The game has changed. Those that think we're going to bounce back to 2007 levels are kidding themselves.


On May 05 05:12 PM Smackdown wrote:

> Wrong. Plenty of opportunity. I already pointed out the MLP space.
> Earnings have continued strongly and distributions are being increased.
> Things are not so tough. The world goes on and taking advantage of
> the panic has yielded once in a lifetime returns.
>
> Alerian MLP index returns for 10 years (as of 4/27) is 13.27% annual.
> One year is -21.9%, five year is 6.94%, ytd is up over 25%.
>
> S&P by comparison is 10 year -2.85%, One year is -37.01%, five
> year -3.57%, and ytd is kind of a wash.
>
> From Oct/Nov lows, the Alerian is up over 50% with divs. Individual
> name, the way I do it, are up way more.
>
> Please educate me about why these companies are doing poorly or why
> I should not be long? Some like SXL and NS have announced record
> results and are actually forecasting more records....
>
> Plus I am collecting huge tax deferred distributions that are steadily
> increasing.
>
> On May 05 02:59 PM Scott Weitz wrote:

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

How can you call the author a 'basketcase' when you give no facts and/or data to support your position.

The reality is that home prices have not hit bottom, the banks are a fraud, the commercial real estate market collapse is imminent...and don't forgot about the coming crisis for municipalities and state and dreadful lack of tax revenue.

Lets call a pig and pig, and not try to dress it up. Earnings are down 33% + across the board. Things are tough....but we need to let the system unwind. Denying that we have a problem will not fix the situation.

In time, you will certainly be right, a recovery will come...but we are not in the midst of it now. Things are still getting worse.

On May 02 02:32 AM InvestBaboo wrote:

> This author is a real basketcase.
>
> XL capital staged a rally to $9.84 from the low digits. To this basketcase
> author this is a 400% unjustfied rally. He would argue "What has
> changed in the fundamentals since March of this year to justify a
> 400% rally?" To those investors who remember seeing XL at 40 dollar
> plus last year it has barely begun to make up for the decline. These
> investors were probably shocked and aghast that a 40 dollar stock
> so quickly ran down to the single low digits in such a short timeframe.
> The same is true with all other equities the author talks about.
> The author forgets that these were behemoths once that were brutally
> punished by the market and have not recovered even to half their
> original value.
>
> "THE MARKET OVER CORRECTED MANY EQUITIES TO THE DOWNSIDE AND NOW
> IS BARELY BEGUN MAKING UP FOR THE OVER CORRECTION." There have been
> significant improvements in the fundamentals that are helping the
> markets now put proper value on these devastated equities. While
> the market will not reward them with their 2008 highs (yet!) the
> market will certainly take them a lot higher than where they are
> today.
>
> It is exactly this "Cup half empty" syndrome that creates suckers
> out of people. People like this author always think they are smarter
> than the market and always try to double guess and/or outsmart the
> market. There is a whole bunch of these sucker authors on Seeking
> Alpha who have caused their readers great disservice by influencing
> them to stay out of this rally. If this author and others like him
> had simply followed charts and then came up with a rationale to justify
> why the markets were rewarding the equities perhaps they would not
> only be wiser but also richer.
>
> As for the author finding faults with the technical parameters of
> this rally there are thousand other analysts who will look at the
> same data and argue otherwise. At the end of the day the markets
> rule and investors are wise to follow the trend till the bend at
> the end.

FCC Commissioner Adelstein Puts Forth Radio Merger Offer

Not sure if you all heard what Adelstein is requiring: 25% of channels dedicated to minority and public interest.

biz.yahoo.com/ap/08071...

I hate the government. What an freaking waste! If they are good and had an audience, SIRI would put them on their programming without a BS mandate like this.

Hoping the Housing Crisis Is Over

Bears are right here. This proclaimed "good news" of housing starts is actually a drag on the market. The last thing we need is a bigger inventory of homes for sale. This ship will not be righted until inventory drops to historic levels.

Cramer to Investors: Stay with Sirius

Cramer pumps SIRI because he likes their chances of success more than XMSR if the merger does not go through.

The merger is going to go through with a few concessions and SIRI will explode from current levels....can't wait.

Blank-Check IPO: Trian Acquisition I Corp.

Love your IPO updates...thanks

Status Report: Sirius/XMSR Merger

Don't see the correlation between FCC public hearings and the DOJ decision. My opinion is that there is absolutely zero relation and that the FCC is simply waiting on the DOJ.

Otherwise, nice article. Looking forward to a decision in the near future.

Status Report: Sirius/XMSR Merger

Don't see the correlation between FCC public hearings and the DOJ decision. My opinion is that there is absolutely zero relation and that the FCC is simply waiting on the DOJ.

Otherwise, nice article. Looking forward to a decision in the near future.

My 2008 Investment Prognosis

Nice article...I agree with most it. Love the ETFC pick..the risk/ reward at these levels is terrific.

XM- Sirius Merger: Key Players Not Giving Up, Yet

What's the point of this article? Siri and XM obviously want to merge...its not their decision at this point. A better article would have outlined the 'DOJ' contacts that could assist the deal.

The Incredible Lightness of Being (Employed)

Agreed...nice article....the fed can help with the markets through rates cuts which seem imminent given the recent numbers. The broader eceonomy, however, almost certainly will suffer.