Scott Weitz

Sirius, XM Satellite Radio: Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

Full Disclosure: I do not currently own shares of SIRI or XM.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

I guess this argument was just settled...down 20% in afterhours.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

I guess this argument was just settled...down 20% in afterhours.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

You see what you want to see. I'm not denying that CROX is a good company. I am arguing that they are trading at unsustainable valuations and the stock will crash on the first sign of bad news.

As for the CC, what do you expect them to say? 'Domestic sales are slowing and our stock is overvalued'? I don't hear many executives that are bearish on their own company.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

I understand the growth vs. Nike and that you can’t compare on P/E’s alone. But, market cap 1/5th of Nike….seems outrageous. In my opinion, they seem to be a one horse wonder. Maybe it’s just where I live, but I have yet to see other shoe models (aside from an occasional flip-flop) or their clothing out on the streets.

I guess time will time. However, if I were long this stock, I would be more concerned than most of you. Insider selling (which admittedly is always an issue in most stocks) is abnormally high; here’s a list of sales in the past week alone: 1) Director: 53,000 shares sold; 2) VP: 61,369 shares; 3) CEO: 9,734; 4) CEO’s wife: 64,464 shares!!

Check out Director Raymond Croghan: He owned a little more than 350,000 towards the end of ’06 according to my calculations. Since then, he consistently sold share with the pace of sales picking up exponentially in the past couple months. Today, Raymond is left with 9,960 shares….are these the acts of a man confident in where the stock is sitting?
Granted, Raymond may have circumstances that I don’t know about, but this raises a big red flag to me.

You can tell me how fast CROX is growing until you’re blue in the face, but I would listen to the people who really know and whose actions speak louder than words.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

I understand the growth vs. Nike and that you can’t compare on P/E’s alone. But, market cap 1/5th of Nike….seems outrageous. In my opinion, they seem to be a one horse wonder. Maybe it’s just where I live, but I have yet to see other shoe models (aside from an occasional flip-flop) or their clothing out on the streets.

I guess time will time. However, if I were long this stock, I would be more concerned than most of you. Insider selling (which admittedly is always an issue in most stocks) is abnormally high; here’s a list of sales in the past week alone: 1) Director: 53,000 shares sold; 2) VP: 61,369 shares; 3) CEO: 9,734; 4) CEO’s wife: 64,464 shares!!

Check out Director Raymond Croghan: He owned a little more than 350,000 towards the end of ’06 according to my calculations. Since then, he consistently sold share with the pace of sales picking up exponentially in the past couple months. Today, Raymond is left with 9,960 shares….are these the acts of a man confident in where the stock is sitting?
Granted, Raymond may have circumstances that I don’t know about, but this raises a big red flag to me.

You can tell me how fast CROX is growing until you’re blue in the face, but I would listen to the people who really know and whose actions speak louder than words.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

JJ-

All you talk about is margins and how comfortable the shoe is. How do you explain that the company is valued at 1/5 the price of Nike with only 5% of the revenue.

Its a great product....my wife and kid both love them...its just tremendously overweight from a valuation perspective.

How do you explain all the insider sellling...its off the charts. Do you think you know something the board members don't???

And what about all the knock-offs? Is that going to hurt the company?

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

Does this imply that domestic sales were not that good this quarter?...just a thought.

Two Stalled Retailers To Consider Buying

I agree in terms of UA. CROX doesn't have the brand recognition UA has....and their market cap vs. Nike is WAAY to high to even consider buying the stock at this point. According to stock owners, CROX is 1/5 the size of Nike...that is absurd.

My prediciation: UA continues to roll, and CROX will have a miserable winter.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

these companies are speculative...at best. I sold bite shoes while in college...they are a neat idea...but they'll never be huge in the golf market.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

CROX is a good company, but they are WAAAY over valued right now.

Market Cap is approximately 1/5 of Nike!?!!?!? ....while Revenue is 5% of Nike. That is insane people.

Even if they continue to grow at current rates, it will take years for this stock to be fairly valued at current price.

And I'm not the only one with this opinion: the CROX CEO himself sold 53,000 shares last week!!!...and has sold over $60 MILLLION worth of shares this summer.



I like the product, but I hate the stock...investors need to see the difference.

Even Insiders Are Selling Crocs

Aside for my comments for VOIP, I've got some other reasons to think twice about crocs.

1) Saw some great CROCS knockoffs at the mall the other day for 12.95....they were identical to Crocs....increased competition is never good.

2) Is it just me, or are the winter shoes hideous?! Not that the summer crocs aren't hideous, but at least the summer models can be worn by kids and have some 'flair'. I can see why kids would love them. Of course this is just an opinion, but I think the winter models will only be purchased by the crocs loyalists and will not have the broad appeal of the summer models.