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ScottU  

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  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    "MSFT, INTC, and AAPL in 1985 (as mentioned in one comment) were not exactly household names back then. "

    My great aunt bought MSFT sometime in 85 or 86, finally sold her shares in 2009. She had a son that did some contracting work for them and talked her into it. They helped her live a very full life.

    Scott
    May 24, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    2Reb,

    "Not to diminish your stock picking acumen, but I strongly suspect that your outperformance on dividend increases is mostly the result of the greater popularity of growth stocks this year."

    I think that's a fair guess. SBUX and COST are the smallest positions in the portfolio. My best guess on why I'm a bit ahead of schedule so far is because it's a portfolio that has neither PG or WMT in it.

    I don't consider myself a great stock picker at all. I buy what i understand, and try to add at value. I invest into individual companies because I enjoy the research aspect and because cash stream valuation helps me evaluate real estate projects, which is my primary occupation.

    I am not sure what the next company that I'll start the reinvestment in on, I have until January to decide. The portfolio certainly could use a bit more healthcare, so that may be a way I lean. Good thoughts.

    Scott
    May 24, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    2Reb,

    I agree iwth your general comment above, I'm a bit worried about the decrease in growth of earnings (and thus the lessening of the growth of dividends).
    "So far this year, net dividend increases (increases minus reductions) only come to 1.25%. My own dividend reinvestments only add another 1.33%, for a total increase of 2.58%."

    My net increase in income this year is just over 3.3%, with about half the year to go. All reinvestment into the account i track this on has gone into SBUX and COST so the increase from reinvestment is lower than the 1.33% that you discussed, but overall I think I'm on pace to end up at roughly 7.5% versus last years 8.3%. It's not a huge concern as the funds aren't needed for income now, but it is definately something to keep an eye on.

    Scott
    May 23, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Mike,

    "Other places that elicited similar reactions: Augusta National (site of the Masters); Waimea Canyon (Kauai); Lillehammer (Norway); PNC Park (Pirates' home park); Chicago skyline from Adler Planetarium vantage point; Sedona."

    Waimea Canyon is spectacular. I had no expectations as its a canyon....in Hawaii. But all in all, it's my second favorite sight on the islands. The only thing that out did it, was the continuing eruptions on the big island and seeing the lava flows. Combination of history unfolding right before your eyes, and realization that Kauai did the same at one point, is amazing.

    The West side of Vancouver Island is pretty special too. There's a lot of little fishing villages you have to go into by boat. The animals you see out there are something to behold.

    Scott
    May 22, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    "Between 1991-94 ~100 biotechs went public (GILD in 1992). Only a small handful, GILD among them have been hugely successful. What if you had invested in ISIS instead?"

    Interestingly enough, my sister bought another one of those Biotechs, Immunex. between 2001-2009 I wasn't actively following the market, all I knew was Immunex didn't exist anymore. When I went digging through her portfolio, I found shares of Amgen in its place. Seems to have worked out well for her.

    Point being more than with hindsight its pretty clear where the winners are, but putting money into upstarts isn't an easy way to long term success.

    Scott
    May 22, 2015. 12:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    "Of all the western states, I think my favorite is New Mexico. So much to see and the landscapes are just fantastic."

    I'm a Washington guy through and through, but Oregon is the one that has stood out for me. Miles and miles of coastline, beautiful mountain ranges, water recreation all over the place, lots of vineyards and wineries, fresh seafood year round.

    Scott
    May 22, 2015. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder [View article]
    I'd like to bring up how overvalued V is. Hoping this works in reverse as well. :)

    Scott
    May 21, 2015. 05:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Providing Support For Core Companies In A Portfolio [View article]
    Joni,

    Not sure if you saw this today or not Joni, but ROST had Chowder's favorite...the beat and raise today. In ROST's case this is the second consecutive quarter this has happened.

    Monday, I had my fourth article published http://seekingalpha.co... which took a lot of the discussion from this article and discusses a portfolio I will start building in the next few months.

    I think it will give me a good opportunity to learn and share those results in real time.

    Scott
    May 21, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Inz,

    I made my first small addition of RY in March. I wrote an article about supporting role companies that included RY as a very solid potential add as the US dollar strengthened. It wasn't much of a nibble, but I came away with 4 shares at just under 59 a share. Whenever I find them available at a solid value, I plan to add to this. With 30 good investing years ahead of me, and being able to purchase without commissions I have little fear of adding in such small chunks.

    Very informational read, thanks.

    Scott
    May 21, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: When Dividend Growth Slows What Should You Do? [View article]
    mbn, Mike, Bob and Chowder;

    "I think too many folks get hung up on current yield and current dividend growth, and don't always see the forest from the trees."

    This sums up what I am shooting for, much better than I stated it.

    "I will remind you three -- and other readers -- that you are coming from different places. Bob actually is living off of his dividends. So they are not "concepts" to him. They are his lifeblood. Scott is decades away from this. Chowdah is not quite there yet (which also is where I stand)."

    This is great perspective, I'm glad you mentioned it.

    I think there's a lot to be learned by migrating ideas across time constraints. One of the reasons I read everything Bob writes is that it offers a perspective that one day I'm going to have to fully understand. The best part for me is that he's giving me a first hand look at it, and is gracious enough to follow up and answer any questions that come to mind, in basically real time.

    "What I have tried to do is to set a standard for the criteria under which a stock is benched."

    Follow up: If your portfolio is exceeding your needs, is there really a reason for a bench? Or more specifically is there reasons for rules to put something on a bench? From what I've read through the years, your portfolio is exceeding your expectations. Given that its performance is above expectations, I'm not certain that you're setting criteria for something that's somewhat unimportant in the long run.

    Scott
    May 21, 2015. 11:09 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Introduction: Starting From Scratch And Learning Along The Way [View article]
    BT,

    "I'm also willing to wait, but it sounds like the expectations now have to switch gears a little bit, away from a growing dividend and toward profit growth. That wasn't BAX's role in my portfolio, of course. "

    Oddly enough, the role in my portfolio was towards profit growth and value when I bought them. That value hasn't shown up yet, but even now I think the shares themselves have some value to them. If not for the split up coming, I would most likely have simply kept them here.

    I have a longer timeline than some, with nearly 30 years till retirement.

    Scott
    May 20, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: When Dividend Growth Slows What Should You Do? [View article]
    Bob,

    "Let me example my goal of 6% dividend growth. I like this because it helps provide a margin of safety so to speak. If inflation rises above 3% I'm covered."

    I understand what you're goal is here, and the why behind it. Where my brain is stuck is are you talking about portfolio wide, or position specific?

    Think of it as a baseball team, if you have a team goal to hit 250 and your team is hitting 260....are you really worried about the SS hitting 225? As long as he's doing his job, and the team is winning, trying to replace him because he's under the average is classic micro-management.

    My guess is that you have the baseline set at 6% because the utilities which you own (as well as some of the REIT's) have DGR's below that threshold, and you're looking to add the safety net of higher growth of income, in the non-utility sectors.

    I'm a big believer in numerical goals, not in percentage based thinking. Yields change daily, your goal remains constant (although growing) each year. Trying to correlate them is difficult.

    Scott
    May 20, 2015. 04:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Introduction: Starting From Scratch And Learning Along The Way [View article]
    BT,

    "I'm not seeing the numbers anywhere to know what a 15% payout ratio on BXLT would mean. The current payout ratio is really not that much more than their target combined payout ratio, so I was thinking that they intended to carry forward a similar dividend policy after the split -- that the amount of dividend currently supported by the biopharma part of the company will carry forward with BXLT, and likewise with the products/services that support the dividend for the portions of the company remaining under the BAX name."

    I think you and I are kinda on the same page with this, but given Eric's stated commentary I can see where he got to where he's at as well. If I had to take a 'best guess' is that's you'll see dividend growth slow, as the split works itself out. Then one of the two ends up being a higher dividend growth opportunity, while the other slumbers along.

    Like Mike says down thread, I'm willing to watch to see what they do. I won't have infinite patience either, but with some time still on my side it gives me a good chance watch the process.

    Scott
    May 20, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Introduction: Starting From Scratch And Learning Along The Way [View article]
    Eric,

    "In the case of BAX, I've held it for over two years now and just haven't seen anything about the company to keep me excited about it, and after 26 months I am sitting a slight loss even with taking into account the dividends reinvested."

    The context here helps support your eventual decision at least from my perspective. I've only been a shareholder for just over 6 months and am within a percent or two of breakeven on them, depending on the day. I haven't been reinvesting back into them, instead pooling. My last three pooled investments have been into RY, PM and this month V. I think if I were sitting at the 2 year mark and had not seen catalysts for meeting my goals, my decision making process is different.

    When i bought, I had a pretty good idea the split was coming for them eventually. When I bought, I didn't expect a raise in the dividend this year. As an aside, I've had to have this same discussion with myself about UMPQ. Soon after I bought them, they raised the dividend by 50%. Since then they have not raised it at all. Instead they used extra capital to purchase Sterling Savings, and have been managing the merger ever since. My suspicion is that within the next 2 quarters they'll start increasing the dividend again.

    I say this because while we're on different sides of what to do with BAX, we've both listened to what the company is saying and applied our own subjective metrics to it. There's nothing wrong with either decision, just a matter of preference.

    Scott
    May 20, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: When Dividend Growth Slows What Should You Do? [View article]
    Rose,

    "Now, yes, the dividend growth has slowed, but still remains at a nice healthy 5 yr CAGR level. 7.6% for PG and 6.7 for KMB. Until they do not meet their earning predictions, don't get hasty & sell."

    The other thing to mention on KMB over the last 5 years is the spinoff of HYH. I think a good portion of the decrease in dividend growth this year, can be taken back to that spin off. From a total return basis, the spin off there has been excellent.

    Scott
    May 20, 2015. 01:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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