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  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    Advent13, I appreciate you're wanting me to do all the heavy lifting but if this concerns you so, dig and report your findings here. I'd be mildly interested.

    Note, however, that I've never suggested that the note obligations would run their course in the event of a sale.

    If, on the other hand, you're suggesting that the share count and price isn't fixed, I can only encourage the company to do a better job of communicating this as I didn't come across such a gem, and you're struggling to remember now if that's the case. It wouldn't surprise me too much though, as Synergy has always telegraphed its desire to be acquired which I have always believed will contribute to low ball offers from big pharma, the passing up of good partnership offers and the eventual less favorable commercial arrangement ala Amarin, MannKind or Arena.

    We'll see. The pom pom boys over at Yahoo will no doubt disdain that honest assessment decrying me to be short. Alas, I can't ignore the obvious.
    May 29, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    Unless the company is sold outright, they'd have to partner because it would be prohibitively expensive to market and distribute this drug without one. If this were a cancer therapy, a small salesforce would work. Unfortunately, it's not. It will need to be prescribed by gastroenterologists and G.P.s.

    Don't get me wrong. It could be done, but done well?
    May 29, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    jwblue, I don't think its going to fall much if any before the Phase 3 Trial data is reported by the company. That is, however, a binary event and no matter how confident investors are in the likelihood of success, no one knows how its going to readout. Therefore, caution is required.

    Please consult your professional financial adviser before making any investment decision.
    May 29, 2015. 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    rgerry191, I did think about this today and I do have a response for you. Making an equation based upon Ironwood having only 50% ownership of its product and then claiming that SGYP's market-cap is roughly 18% of that is disingenuous if only because Synergy will have to partner if it doesn't sell to the highest bidder. Consequently, the fair equation would include a speculative figure on how Synergy's partnership would be structured and the impact that would have on its market-cap.

    Nice idea though.
    May 29, 2015. 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    rgerry191, what I don't understand is how anyone can get the impression that I'm not enthusiastic about Synergy's products and prospects. One purpose of the article, for instance, is to put the 10% expectations of diarrhea rates into perspective. Under 20% is terrific. I agree with 100% of what you've written. I'm sorry that doesn't come through. And thank you for a thoughtful response.

    Michael
    May 28, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Read On Seeking Alpha [View article]
    Regarded, you're okay but Chris is a superstar and the man-crush of Eli Hoffman. That's why!

    Michael Webb
    May 28, 2015. 06:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Seeks To Change The Paradigm Of Eye Care From Practitioner To Patient [View article]
    Greg ~ nice find. I'll look into this more closely in the days ahead. At first blush, I would say that Avenova, if and when Lifitegrast by Shire is approved, will have its first competitor in the prescription eye care treatment space. That said, dry eye is but a fraction of the total market - less than 20%. And if patients suffering from blepharitis and mgd are successfully treated with Avenova, they're less likely to come down with dry eye syndrome. Regardless, Avenova's prescription market opportunity wouldn't be cut in half but, rather, by 20% and I'd have to see the pricing of Lifitegrast before making any statement beyond a speculative one.

    Take care my friend...

    Michael
    May 28, 2015. 02:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    vchthree, thank you for asking. I'm a hybrid short-term investor/trader. Because I understand that biotech equities rise and fall in somewhat predictable oscillations, I tend to invest, take profits during the rising tide, and invest those profits back into the equity when the tide of investor enthusiasm goes out. Some say that can't be done. I say: nonsense!

    When you "blatant manipulation" I need for you to be specific. Who is manipulating the stock? When are they manipulating the stock? And how are they manipulating the stock? You see, for me, every stock is subject to manipulation. Some of it is quite blatant. And when I identify that, I sell my shares, never to return.

    In Synergy's case, so many groups of individuals, and collections of individuals own so many shares, I have no way of identifying the who, what, where and when of it.

    I can, however, and have, identified causal factors for rises and falls in the equity that have nothing to do with manipulation.

    Thanks for your contribution.
    May 26, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paulson Tug Pushes Synergy Out To Sea [View article]
    Thank you, Ron! That is also a possibility. And because possibility motivates investment, Synergy represents a real value proposition.
    May 26, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Seeks To Change The Paradigm Of Eye Care From Practitioner To Patient [View article]
    Greg, all valid points that I agree with. A realistic market opportunity if NBY is hitting on all cylinders is $100M. Still, this ignores another 30M potential patients who have a milder form of blepharitis. The dry eye med you're referring to, are they for severe cases? It would be my understanding that Avenova treats dry eye tangentially to the treatment of bleph and mgs.

    And they'll need to raise funds by Q4 2015 and likely sooner.
    May 20, 2015. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Apparent Q1 Revenue Miss Mostly Due To Revenue Recognition And Shipment Timing [View article]
    david22hughes, I think you've hit it on the head. A positive NCE verdict and the stock is off to the races. A surprise against Amarin and the stock would falter for another 4-6 months.
    May 14, 2015. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Apparent Q1 Revenue Miss Mostly Due To Revenue Recognition And Shipment Timing [View article]
    Interesting take. Love your articles and financial expertise. Thank you!
    May 13, 2015. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Smart 1st Amendment Strategy [View article]
    Sheep, I may not be a huge Thero fan but when it comes to matters of business - managing a budget; sizing a salesforce; etc; etc; he may be second to none. Salvaging operations from the debacle of 2013 to where we find ourselves today is nothing short of miraculous.

    He seems to know this too as he generously loads his plate with free stock options as he goes.
    May 11, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Smart 1st Amendment Strategy [View article]
    They did in Q2 of 2014 and accelerated in March of this year. Forgive me for not communicating that better.
    May 11, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing Seeking Alpha's Contrarian Contest Winners [View article]
    Early Retiree, your initial coverage of stocks is exceptional - think (TBPH). And I congratulate you on your 1st Place finish.
    May 11, 2015. 06:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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