Sean Bellamy Mc...'s  Instablog

The USDJPY (FXY) has been the talk of the town as of late. Soros pulled in over $1bn in profits, Kyle Bass has been all over it from the beginning, I'm sure it's making up for a lot of the losses on Apple (AAPL) in the hedge fund world. I've managed to make a bit of money in the trade a few weeks ago, but have largely missed the move thus far. The question is how more run does this trade have?

The chart for the USDJPY recently formed a head and shoulders chart pattern, which is thought to be a bearish sign.

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I'm not a technical trader, but in my view it is worth being aware of technicals, as they become self-fulfilling prophecies. There are enough technicians on trading floors around the world that if an obvious technical level or pattern shows up in a chart, whether there is any fundamental reason or not for a price level, the technicians money flowing into the position causes the technical indicator to ring true. This turns into a self-reinforcing feedback loop, which is why there are so many technical traders around the world today.

With an average holding period of 5 days, I'm mainly trade slightly longer term swings in currencies that brings more fundamentals into play, as they will ultimately drive longer term trends. Of these indicators, I use both macroeconomic data as well as market based data. Of the market based indicators, I've found the FX Options market price action being some of the most informative. The FX Option markets is dominated by hedge funds, investment banks and other professional traders, so it is often a good indicator of where the "smart money" is at.

The FX Option Market's Take on USDJPY

In the FX Option market, I look at option volatility prices and risk reversal prices.

The option volatility prices is an indicator of demand, thus the higher the option volatility, the higher the price of the options. Given my trading time frame, I keep an eye on the 1 month option volatility. The higher the volatility, the more interest in options 1 month out, the more potential for a move either to the upside or downside.

The risk reversal prices are the price of calls versus puts at a given level of delta. Without getting too deep into derivatives, essentially what this indicator shows is whether call options or put options are being bought up in greater quantity. Mathematically, it is the price of a call option at 25 delta minus the price of put option at 25 delta. Therefore, if the number is positive, calls are more expensive than puts, if it is negative, puts are more expensive than calls.

Between the option volatility and the risk reversal prices, you get a clear picture of what the pros are setting up for.

Below is a chart with the 1 month USDJPY price (blue shaded section), the 1 month option volatility (yellow line), the 3 month option volatility (red line) and the 1 month risk reversal (purple line):

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As you can see option volatility has been increasing steadily over the past month, indicating more options being bought and sold, and in the past week, the amount of puts being purchased as increased dramatically. This could be driven by traders protecting gains with the purchase of puts, or speculation that the currency will fall. Either way, the smart money, consistent with the head and shoulders pattern, is setup also setting up for a fall in the USDJPY (a strengthening of the Yen).

On the 6 month chart this becomes even more apparent, with option volatility growing exponentially and risk reversals hitting their lowest point in the past 6 months:

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Finally, on the 1 year chart, the risk reversals price is shown to be touching levels not seen since last September, but at the same time it is worth noting that they haven't touched levels seen in the summer of 2011, which was the last time the USDJPY rallied to the mid 80s range and subsequently sold off back to the mid 70s range.

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The Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has seen its assets grow substantially along with the rise in the USDJPY, but this isn't a new trend. Below is a 20 year chart, a 1 year chart and a 6 month chart of the BOJ Balance Sheet Assets (blue shaded region) with the USDJPY exchange rate (yellow line).

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Most interestingly is that in a long term sense, the BOJ has had assets at this level before back in March of 2006. As aggressive as the recent buying may seem, by all appearances the BOJ has a long way to go before they are in completely uncharted waters. Therefore, I don't see them as being gun shy at this point.

What I find most compelling about the BOJ story is that they are not targeting an FX exchange rate, as the BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pointed out this past Thursday, but rather an inflation rate. Without commenting on the wisdom of this move, this makes the USDJPY extreme exchange rate move a largely moot point in the BOJ's eyes, as they are dedicated to the 2% inflation target. Not only does this rhetoric make this politically possible on the world stage, but it suggests that until the inflation rate in Japan reaches the 2% number, the USDJPY has plenty of room to move.

The Retail Traders

The last indicator, and one of my favorites, is retailer trader positions, what I call my "Pauly Michaels Indicator". The sad fact is that 80% of retail FOREX traders lose money, therefore being on the other side of their trade is often a wise move. OANDA, my broker and a first class operator, publishes their book in real time allowing you to see the sentiment in the retail market.

Below are charts from OANDA's historical position ratios. I've broken out 1 year, 1 month and 1 week charts, with the blue indicating a net long position, orange indicating a net short, and the black line being the USDJPY exchange rate.

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These three charts demonstrate the power of this tool. Looking at the 1 year chart (the top chart), you see all through 2012 retail traders were extremely bullish on the Yen as it trended down to 75. Then, during its recent rally, the one I presume they were all been waiting for, rather than profiting from the massive upswing that they had been waiting for all year, the retail traders go net short, missing out on the move from 83 to 94, while Soros picked up his 1 billion. That is what separates the pros from the amateurs.

Looking at the USDJPY trade now, I find it concerning that the retail side of the trade has moved to a net long position, but encouraging that it is not nearly the ratio is was throughout 2012. Also, in with retail traders selling off their position in the past week, I see this as a good sign as now being potentially a good time for an entry point.

The Bottom Line and the Trade

I`ve been long the USDJPY since February 13th, and am essentially at break even in the position thus far. After conducting this analysis, I`m slightly more concerned for the downside, especially seeing as how the FX Option market has moved, but at the same time find it encouraging the retail traders have sold off this past week.

The overriding factor is the BOJ`s inflation target. As long as that is the BOJ`s main focus, I don`t see USDJPY at 94 being the top end for the move, despite the technicals and the positioning in the retail and FX options markets. The fact that the BOJ has had their balance sheet at this level of assets before is also encouraging, as they`ll be much less hesitant to expand it further given this historical context. Of course, there is a point where the BOJ will be hesitant in expanding the balance sheet further, but we haven`t hit that yet.

In conclusion, depending on the open Sunday afternoon (the open of the FOREX market in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada), I may exit my USDJPY position, as this head and shoulders may be legit. With retail traders becoming more bullish, and the smart money largely going negative, this doesn't appear to be the best entry point. That being said, long term, I don't see 94 being the top end, and will likely buy back in when conditions are more favorable.

Disclosure: I am short FXY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Rocco Pendola, a former pundit at SeekingAlpha.com who has since moved on to TheStreet.com, published a number of articles this past Monday in response to The Wall Street Journal piece reporting that Apple (AAPL) cut orders for iPhone 5 parts because of weaker-than-expected demand. Rocco's most recent article -- titled Something Is Terribly Wrong, Just Not With Apple -- opened with the following:

Pardon my French, but with a few solid exceptions (they know who they are), the people who staff newspapers and Web sites that cover the stock market are lazy bastards incapable of or afraid to offer an original thought.

He then called for The Wall Street Journal to be "taken to task, held accountable or whatever ends up necessary in this case" for the negative story on Apple.

Keep in mind, this comes from a writer who believes that, "next to Jim Cramer and Howard Stern, I'm (Rocco) the most misunderstood man in showbiz".

And what was Mr. Osawa's crime? Below are Rocco's seven main grievances from both Something Is Terribly Wrong, Just Not With Apple and, If the WSJ Is Wrong About 'Weak' iPhone 5 Demand, Will It Apologize to Apple?:

1. Osawa lacks credibility, as this is the "first I (Rocco) had ever heard of him".
2. Not identifying sources which "we've become so desensitized to that we no longer question the validity of statements such as people familiar with the situation".
3. Osawa speculating on alternative scenarios looks like "damage control" to Rocco.
4. WSJ used "weak demand or something to that effect in the headline" originally and then changed the headline. Rocco doesn't go on to say what part of this offends him, I presume it is something to do with sensationalizing the story.
5. There was speculation about weak demand before the iPhone 4s as well. Again, Rocco doesn't specifically state why he is offended with this speculation, but from the rest of the article it appears is has something to do with reporters having "carte blanche to beat around the bush and leave readers/investors in the dark in the name of protecting a source".
6. That newspapers shouldn't treat "other people's money with reckless abandon" with "half-cocked reporting" that "move a stock and (Rocco's italics) its derivative plays".
7. TheStreet's tech geek and "Apple authority", Chris Ciaccia, thinks it's likely the parts supplier is seeing cuts in the January to March quarter because Apple's biggest quarter is the holiday quarter, its fiscal first quarter. To Chris, this article appears to be "pure speculation at best", which Rocco finds "logical".

Rocco goes on to proclaim that "you shouldn't be able to (move a stock and its derivative plays) when the hard-earned money of retail investors is on the line", but doesn't provide any policy solution to this apparent problem.

Rocco, Apple Is Not Holier Than Thou

It is often thought that successful investing is solely about quantitative analysis and delving into research reports ensuring no stone is left unturned, but in fact it is not. The most important factor in determining whether you'll be successful investing is psychology. But don't take my word for it:

Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

- Warren Buffett

Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.

- Paul Tudor Jones

What sets successful traders apart? Most people think that winning in the markets has something to do with finding the secret formula. The truth is that any common denominator among the traders I interviewed had more to do with attitude than approach.

- Jack Schwager (author of Market Wizards series, a great read if you haven't read the series already)

In addition, the chart below outlines the 14 Stages of trading psychology.

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Although Rocco often states that he is uncertain about Apple's long term future and that the company requires an innovative new product to continue its success, judging by the tone of his articles, it's clear that he takes is personally when any media outlet speculates mishaps at "clearly the world's best company". I'd say he's in-between anxiety and denial.

Readers of this at Seeking Alpha can learn much from observing Rocco's violent reaction to a negative story about Apple. Namely, if you ever have this reaction, you're too emotionally attached to your stock. Take a step back to gain perspective on the situation, and if you find that can't get over your emotional attachment, hire an investment advisor or sell the stock. The market is a cruel mistress, and if you let her, she'll break your heart.

Addressing Rocco's Grievances

Rocco has made a career of writing about Apple. He wrote his first article about the company for Seeking Alpha on February 22nd, 2011, and from that time put out an immense amount of material on the stock. Below are his yearly output numbers up to when he wrote his last article for Seeking Alpha:

February 22nd to December 31st 2011: 39 (1 article every 8 days)

January 1st to May 23rd 2013: 38 (1 article every 4 days)

Given this record of output, I was expecting a more substantial rebuff to Osawa than a rant on the "financial media". Unfortunately, his readers were left with Rocco's seven points outlined in the intro, which I'll address in its entirety below:

1. Osawa lacks credibility, as this is the first I (Rocco) had ever heard of him.

I was unable to find a biography for Juro Osawa, but he has been writing about technology for the Wall Street Journal since at least April 23, 2010. The first financial article published by Rocco was his article on Apple February 22, 2011, therefore it appears a better question is whether Osawa has heard of Rocco.

Also, Rocco may want to read the WSJ technology section at times other than when a negative story is written about Apple.

2. Not identifying sources which we've become so desensitized to that we no longer question the validity of statements such as people familiar with the situation.

Contrary to what Rocco perceives as a societal drift away from questioning the validity of statements originating from anonymous sources, based on my observations society is drifting towards questioning the validity of all statements, especially those from anonymous sources. There is an entire segment of society that believes 9/11 was an inside job and the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones was just interviewed on a major television network as if his opinions were worth listening to. Clearly, questioning authority isn't a problem in America.

In addition, Osawa's WSJ article's statements are specific, not vague, citing that Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the first quarter have dropped to roughly half of what the company had planned to order and that "the company also cut orders for components other than screens".

Unless Rocco is postulating that Osawa is making up conversations, it is clear that a discussion took place that was specific enough for WSJ to report on.

3. Osawa speculating on alternative scenarios looks like "damage control" to Rocco.

I had a professor who was a former reporter and often spoke nostalgically about the profession and the importance of the pursuit of the truth. During this pursuit, it is important to consider alternative scenarios for obvious reasons. Osawa doing this has nothing to do with "damage control".

4. WSJ used weak demand or something to that effect in the headline originally and then changed the headline. Rocco doesn't go on to say what part of this offends him, I presume it is something to do with sensationalizing the story.

There is nothing inherently wrong with changing the headline to a story, nor does it indicate anything sinister transpiring at the WSJ.

5. There was speculation about weak demand before the iPhone 4s as well. Again, Rocco doesn't specifically state why he is offended with this speculation, but from the rest of the article it appears is has something to do with reporters having carte blanche to beat around the bush and leave readers/investors in the dark in the name of protecting a source.

A filtered Google search looking specifically for news on the iPhone 4s and iPhone 5 yields the following results:

iPhone 4s: 149,000 articles.

iPhone 5: 145,000,000 articles.

These 145,149,000 articles would have been written both before and after the timeline Rocco is speaking of. The point is, a product like the iPhone will receive massive amount of press coverage, both positive and negative, which doesn't amount to reporters having "carte blanche to beat around the bush".

6. That newspapers shouldn't treat other people's money with reckless abandon with half-cocked reporting that move a stock and (Rocco's italics) its derivative plays.

The last thing newspapers should consider is how their stories will affect the market. If they did, they'd be doing a huge disservice to investors. The reporting profession is about reporting, not speculating on how their reporting will affect speculators. Once the scoop has met a certain threshold, which will be at the point far short of 'perfect information', it ought to be published. Over time, the reputation of the newspaper will either prosper or suffer depending on where it sets this threshold. It is worth noting, the WSJ has done quite well over the years.

With regards to "half-cocked reporting" that "move a stock and its derivative plays", given that Rocco is an author of an eBook about options, this statement is absurd. Derivatives are priced based on the stock price, hence the term derivative. A derivative's price changes with the stock price, not because a journalist targeted both stock and derivative plays.

It may be time for Rocco to review the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

7. TheStreet.com's tech geek and "Apple authority", Chris Ciaccia, thinks it's likely the parts supplier is seeing cuts in the January to March quarter because Apple's biggest quarter is the holiday quarter, its fiscal first quarter. To Chris, this appears to be "pure speculation at best", which Rocco finds "logical".

This is Rocco's most substantive point, which isn't saying much. Once Rocco got over his initial outrage at the financial media, he emailed the TheStreet.com's apparent Apple authority known as Chris Ciaccia. Chris went on to make the astute observation (after re-reading the WSJ article, of course) that Apple would sell more iPhone's during the Christmas season than after, thus it was expected for sales to drop off. Chris then went onto to conclude that is his view, this was "pure speculation at best".

Chris may want to re-re-read Osawa's WSJ article, as the crux of the story wasn't that sales drop off after Christmas, but that they dropped off much more than expected, indicating either:

• A. Not as many iPhone's were sold at Christmas as expected.
• B. Due to initial market reaction, Apple lowered its iPhone 5 sales forecast.

From The WSJ Story

Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the first quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had planned to order, the people said.

The Cupertino, Calif., company also cut orders for components other than screens, one of the people said.

Chris then goes on to contradict himself in back to back sentences, stating that:

On Jan. 23, we'll find out how many iPhones were sold in the holiday quarter…

Followed By

But one would expect that given the robust demand for the phone (iPhone 5) after it was released, demand is likely to slow from the holiday quarter.

So Chris, do we or don't we know the iPhone sales from the holiday quarter?

And Rocco, this isn't "logical".

Throwing Stones While Living In A Glass House

Rocco opened his piece calling out the "lazy bastards" who write in the financial media and are "incapable of or afraid to offer an original thought", and went on to criticize the research being done by other writers. These are bold words coming from a writer of hard hitting, in depth articles featuring provocative titles such as:

Something for Bored Apple Investors to Consider While Killing Time to $600

Note to Apple Fans: Stop Talking About Value

Apple Not A Buy-And-Hold Investment? That's News To Me

Should You Put All Of Your Eggs In Apple's Basket?

Why I Will Not Be Listening To Apple's Earnings Call Live

Of the 77 articles written by Rocco on Apple, only one was picked as an editor's choice by Seeking Alpha.

Why would a new writer focus on Apple? Because it has the largest number of followers at Seeking Alpha with over 92,000 people receiving an email each time an article is written about it. Therefore, publishing an article every four days on the company is great way to get noticed.

Paradoxically, if anything is wrong with the financial media, it is not journalists like Juro Osawa who speak with sources on the ground and report their findings, but blowhards like Rocco Pendola who conduct little research, publish ad nauseam with provocative titles to boost their readership and have no expertise in financial markets but insist on offering advice.

But despite being unimpressed with Rocco's work to date, there is no need for him to be taken to task, held accountable or whatever ends up necessary for his shoddy reporting. The beauty of the marketplace is that it is not only a market for capital, but a market for ideas. It's the best venue for minds to meet for debate and discussion, and one in which participants are held accountable to their views by an impartial judge.

This is why websites such as Investing.com provide such an invaluable service. Their platform allows a variety of other market participants to participate in the debate, and allows investors to read up on views from people other than analysts in the research division at banks. Again, despite being unimpressed with Rocco's work to date, I'm glad there are forums for him to air his views, as well as forums to respond to them.

I believe Voltaire said it best:

I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.

Apple And The Financial Media

What Osawa was reporting on is not news to anyone; Apple is not the company it once was. As a recent convert from an iPhone to a Galaxy Note 2, there is no question that Samsung's products have eclipsed Apple in terms of product quality. This has been the findings of a number of reviews, and backed up by Samsung's growing sales numbers.

In addition, a friend recently posted this question on his Facebook page:

I've highlighted a few of the 44 comments below, which were heavily in favor of the Galaxy Note 2 (please add a mental sic where appropriate, the grammar on Facebook can be painful at times):

"I have the 5, got my sis the note. She loves it n I want it so lol note!"

"I don't know anything about the galaxy note 2 but the IPhone 5 is still so new that its really glitchy. And a glitchy phone is never fun. Good luck with ur decision."

"Personally, I say go note 2. Stats alone destroy iPhone."

"I have iPhone 5 but notebook is the superior phone."

Although the Facebook post is anecdotal, Google Trends quantitatively backs up this shift in consumer sentiment in the data on searches for Samsung versus Apple:

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If the filter is narrowed to Apple phones and Samsung phones and limited to shopping searches, the divergence is even more drastic:

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And of course, Apple's stock price versus Samsung over the past year, the best indicator:

In conclusion, there is nothing inherently wrong with the financial media negatively reporting on Apple, Osawa did a great job breaking an informative story. In addition, nothing that Osawa did qualifies him as a "lazy bastard", he hit the street and dug up a story through his contacts. This represents more financial research than Rocco has ever done in his little under two years as a financial commentator or his previous 12 years working in radio.

As Chris Ciaccia pointed out, we'll find out January 23 if Osawa source was accurate. Time will tell if Apple goes the way of RIMM, but if the iPhone 6 is similar to the iPhone 5 which is similar to the original iPhone, they likely will.

Often the biggest risk is not taking one.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As per readers request on my last article, Sandstorm Gold: A Golden Opportunity, I’ve followed up with an article on SSL’s sister company Sandstorm Metals and Energy (Canadian Venture Exchange: SND). I delayed writing this article until after SND finished their recent equity offering, which was a success, raising close to $50,000,000.

Sandstorm Metals and Energy features the exact same business model as Sandstorm Gold, that being a metals streaming company, but as the names suggests is focuses on Metals and Energy rather than Gold. Both companies are run out the same office, with the same CEO, much of the same management team, and have enjoyed much of the same success. In the short time since the Sandstorm Metals and Energy spinoff in May 2010, they’ve managed to put together 10 deals on 5 different projects. These deals involve the following commodities:

• Natural Gas
• Oil
• Thermal Coal
• Metallurgical Coal
• Copper

As I outlined in my post on Sandstorm Gold, the management team at this company is fantastic, being the recipients of multiple awards and possessing large ambitions for the future. The CEO, Nolan Watson, was the youngest CFO of a billion dollar company at the age of 25, that being Silver Wheaton (SLW), and was key in seeing that organization grow into the $11 billion market cap it boasts today. Majority of the rest of the team is from Silver Wheaton, if not from other related mining businesses, and the management team is all graduates from the prestigious University of British Columbia, the top university in Canada. This is definitely an organization you want to be in business with.

The advantage to owning Sandstorm Metals and Energy, as opposed to Sandstorm Gold, is that you enjoy the same excellent management team putting together deals for streams from multiple types of commodities; therefore the investor is protected from any violent fluctuations of any one type of commodity. The downside to this diversification is that a diversified streaming companies will trade at a lower P/NAV multiple than pure streaming companies.

In regards to the commodities SND has deals in, I created a chart to measure their correlation with one another to help determine the ultimate value in the diversification of SND’s holdings. I took in 20 years of data and turned the prices into an index for easy comparison, with 1991 being year 1 with a value of 100:

I also did a correlation study for a more accurate measure of the data.

As you can see, oil, coal and copper are highly correlated to one another, whereas natural gas is far less correlated with the other 3 commodities. This is somewhat intuitive given that oil, coal and copper all are subject to the demands of the overall economy, thus as economic activity picks up their prices all should as well. I suspect natural gas diverges from this due to the recent technological innovations associated with extracting natural gas from shale.

It’s important to note that none of the commodities are negatively correlated with one another, which means that SND is subject to much of the same risks as a any other commodity company and isn’t hedged from an overall decline in commodity prices, although it is protected from any 1 of the 4 suffering a catastrophic drop. Given the behavior of gold as of late, it may ironically act as a great hedge to owning Sandstorm Gold, as if uncertainty were to subside and gold prices coming down were coupled with a pickup in the global economy and further demand for commodities, you may see an inverse relationship develop between the two companies stock prices. But this would be well into the future once the cash flow from the streaming deals was fully developed.

Looking at SND’s financials, they have started to flow cash off of their Royal Coal’s Big Branch Mine deal which resulted in their past quarter being the first one generating cash flow. Although with the loss for the period at -$249,000, they still have a ways to go before the company is cash flow positive, it is excellent to see that process beginning.  They also have $31,864,000 cash on the books, which doesn’t include the $48,757,500 they just raised in an equity offering. Thus in total, currently SND has approximately $75,000,000 in cash.

Given this large cash balance, I would expect an announcement of another streaming deal over the next few months. I attended a presentation approximately a month ago by SND in which their CFO, Ron Ho, expressed that by holding cash in the past they have irritated investors. Thus Ron assured those at this meeting that after raising capital, it will put it to work as soon as possible.

In terms of properties and streaming deals in place, they again boast an impressive margin compared to current spot prices, although the terms are more complex than at Sandstorm Gold. I’ve simplified these terms down to demonstrate the impressive profit margin they’ve locked in:

As you can see, there is a healthy margin for the commodities to pull back and for SND to remain profitable, especially given that SND price adjusts downwards as each of the commodity prices falls. This is subject to limitations, as at a certain price it will make more sense for the miners to shutdown and deal with any penalties that may arise. In the end, much of the success of SND is reliant on the price of the commodities they stream.

That being said, there are significant advantages to owning a streaming company as opposed to owning the commodity outright. SND will continue to generate cash as long as commodity prices don’t completely collapse, as the margins above show. Thus SND, as opposed to owning the commodity directly, will generate cash flow for their shareholders even if commodity prices stay flat. In addition, if commodity prices were to drop, this would create an easier business environment for SND to put deals together on even more favorable terms, as with current inflated commodity prices many companies can go it alone.
 

My bullish sentiment for this company is shared by analysts who have had a strong buy or buy recommendation on the business since inception. Given the small number of analysts currently covering the stock, as more begin to follow SND it could act as a catalyst for further stock price increases.

In conclusion, Sandstorm Metals and Energy, much like Sandstorm Gold, represents an opportunity to add exposure to commodities to your portfolio and get in on the ground floor of a company with bright future prospects. Between the two businesses, management has time and time again demonstrated that they can put deals together on great terms to the benefit of their shareholders, with both businesses beginning to generate cash flows. Although there is sure to be bumps in the road in the share price as the company grows, such as further share issuances, over the next 5 to 10 years I expect to see the Sandstorm brand on par in terms of market cap with other streaming companies such as Silver Wheaton.