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Sean Daly

 
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  • Corn And Spring Wheat Planting Ahead Of Schedule, Winter Wheat In Great Condition [View article]
    Rogue,

    Thanks for your insights. I have heard similar reports domestically.

    More broadly, India's delays in purchasing this year will also make for some interesting months ahead:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 18, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coup In Beijing: What It Means For Fertilizer Stocks [View article]
    LK,

    Maninder is right. Tupolev is the leader in LNG aircraft, with test flights as early as 1988:

    http://bit.ly/H3UfsL

    http://bit.ly/HautyU
    Mar 31, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coup In Beijing: What It Means For Fertilizer Stocks [View article]
    Nyshtri,

    Thanks. In regards to your comments, I found this article on banking reforms in Wenzhou very interesting:

    http://on.wsj.com/HmYtZB

    Wenzhou is the proverbial "tip of the spear" for all economic reform in China. It's been the true "incubator" of Chinese capitalism since 1980.

    I myself connect this further step in liberalization to the broader political transition, but I can't substantiate that.

    Soft or hard, food inflation was a very difficult issue for working people in China through most of late 2010 - 2011, so I do see that as something they need to tackle. I co-wrote an article with a former Singapore central banker last year that explored the relationship between monetary policy and the development of a buoyant service sector economy:

    http://bit.ly/H0o5P3

    China needs has a lot more college graduates now and needs to start employing them in a larger service sector.
    Mar 29, 2012. 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Add Exclusive Sports Coverage To Its Empire? [View article]
    Rocco,

    Great article. You wrestle with the issues that are at the true heart of Apple's foray into TV.

    In a way, television is simply less “digestible” than the prior mediums that Apple has succeeded in. The company could “eat” the movie, book, and music market precisely because those are completed art works that are not time sensitive. They are asynchronous in their reception. An Apple TV that offers network reception but can’t open the cable programming to tailored, “pick and chose” subscription would remain an accessory product.

    Remember: Apple is not providing a pipe. If you still need that cable or Fios connection for bandwidth, the iTV will remain a new, secondary cost.

    If the iTV can port everything via Airplay through a Wifi hotspot off your phone, then you might be able to kill off the cable bill, paying a lesser amount to Apple and, say, Verizon or Sprint. In that case Apple siphons off customers interested in dropping cable for a less content-rich, more asynchronous (post-broadcast viewing time), more interactive experience.

    There are other hurdles unique to television, some of which I mention in an earlier piece: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 11, 2012. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Breakout Catalysts For 2012 [View article]
    keep.it.simple,

    Thanks for your excellent comments.

    Last month, after a conference, I spoke to GAMCO Investors CEO Mario Gabelli. One of the stocks he mentioned to me was MSG and their stable of sports brands.

    That pick came to mind this week when reading about the many ambitions Apple might have for the iTV (and the various ways it might circumvent the cable companies).
    Jan 10, 2012. 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Effects Of Foreclosures After Real Estate Bubbles Burst In Emerging Markets [View article]
    William,

    Excellent article. Its discussion of the legal dimension of real estate (and more broadly capitalism) reminded me of the work by Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto. Well worth looking at in this new context of a real estate bust in China.

    Back in January, MIT’s Simon Johnson stated that the yuan will replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency in twenty years. Of course, twenty years ago, pundits spoke of the Japanese yen and the Land of the Rising Sun in much the same tone of impending ascendancy.

    Japan’s experience in the 1980s offers an important lesson to China today, though it is not the one commonly assumed. Often in China, the lesson of Japan—crystallized during the 1997 currency crisis—is simply: “Do not listen to the West. Do not appreciate your currency, as it will bring ruin.”

    But the real lesson of Japan is a bit more complicated. It is that the FX intervention and a protected, politically-ingrained export regime had the effect of generating huge domestic liquidity that was not appropriately sopped up or routed.

    The money found its way into overcapacity because the complete dominance of the export industry—and the relative immaturity of other business sectors—insured it would. The money found its way into asset inflation because few other venues were available.

    The collusion of local government, banking, and business elites will make it a murky issue in China, as it did in Japan in the 90s (and perhaps even here in the US).

    I did a report on US commercial real estate last year that explored "pretend and extend." You might find it interesting.

    Here is the link:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 27, 2011. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation's Back, And Stocks Just Don't Get It [View article]
    aarc,

    Great post. I personally see gold consolidating at a lower level for the early portion of next year, before making any new climb.

    More generally, I see 2012 as the first year of what I have called elsewhere the "Post-Stimulus Era," a period when there is no longer $5 trillion in worldwide government spending dropped in to soften the hard edges:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 19, 2011. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation's Back, And Stocks Just Don't Get It [View article]
    Graham,

    Excellent article. Extremely direct and convincing.

    Last week Pimco declared that the euro and dollar will reach parity in 2012. That kind of dollar strength can only hurt gold and stocks --as I discussed Friday in the following piece:

    http://bit.ly/tYQduY
    Dec 19, 2011. 09:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Will Never Be A Good Time For Greece To Default [View article]

    Peter,

    Nice article. Great "big picture" perspective with just the right level of detail and quantitative insights.

    In its September estimates, the IMF reduced 2012 growth for both the US and Europe from 2.7% to 1.8%, and 1.6% to 1.1%, respectively. So next year will be tough sledding.
    Sep 28, 2011. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BRICs: Looking Back On An Acronym's First Decade [View article]
    Diana,

    Thanks for the comments.

    You are technically correct about Brazil's outright "energy independence" in 2009. I was looking out at the Petrobas reserves and suggesting a more long-term, more general notion of independence (compared to China or India):
    http://bit.ly/qc5iSM

    In terms of the Olympics, you were also right --most countries usually have a serious "economic hangover" immediately after the games.

    Though I would suggest that because Rio isn't until 2016, there will be money thrown at infrastructure for the next five years.

    Personally, I see the Rio games more like Beijing or the '64 Tokyo event than Athens. It will have a modernizing effect. Brazil has its corruption, but it's a big consumer market, enjoys a far younger population, and is just hitting its industrial stride this decade.

    It will be the first Olympics ever to be held in South America, so that alone will keep the multinationals (and their investment) interested.
    Sep 23, 2011. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market or Blow Off Top for Stocks and ETFs? [View article]
    Great article --"pitch perfect" in capturing the market's emotional tenor right now.

    One other x factor coming up: the July 16th deadline for Dodd Frank's Title vii provisions on derivatives. It may be a non-event or it may precipitate an avalanche of class-action lawsuits against the banks:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 11, 2011. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Six-Front War [View article]

    Semil,

    Great article.

    It's concise, elegantly written, and brings true clarity to Google's place in the present tech milieu.

    My only quibble would be to perhaps add a "front." I see Google as also in a war with Apple, Visa, and ISIS in the mobile payments arena, something I see as somewhat distinct from mobile phones.

    Here is a recent article that relates to the issue:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Any thoughts on mobile payments as distinct locus of corporate strategy?
    Jul 4, 2011. 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NXP Semiconductors: Great Potential in Mobile Payment [View article]
    J.

    Thanks for the kind words. NXPI broke 27 quite quickly. I assume due to expectations of the Google Wallet demo next week.

    I think company-specific news may keep NXPI highly resistant to any broader downdraft. You might this interesting:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 1, 2011. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NXP Semiconductors: Great Potential in Mobile Payment [View article]
    This might offer an intro into the differences:

    arstechnica.com/gadget...
    Jun 30, 2011. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Worth Looking at in the Wake of Middle East Uncertainty [View article]
    Jgib,

    Interesting comment. Let me know what you turn up in the footnotes.

    Best Regards,

    Sean Daly
    May 9, 2011. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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