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Sean Daly  

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  • Mosaic: Is All the Good News Baked In? [View article]

    Thanks for your comment.

    The original piece was published last Wednesday and had a far more open-ended title, "Mosaic: What's Next for the Fertilizer Giant?"

    Yes, the fundamentals still look impressive going forward. However, the technical indicators I follow made me feel the stock price was stretched.

    From Friday 2/4 to Friday 2/11 MOS went from 82.25 to 88.32. Then Monday, it popped further to 89.10, followed by news items on Tuesday and Wednesday that seemed inherently negative for a sector that is so central to the "hot money" right now.

    I think the sector will see more volatility as it's entered a more "self-conscious" period in its run-up. Didn't the phrase "Food Crisis" just appear on the cover of this weekend's Businessweek?

    If the world pedals back from utter apocalypse --as it often does-- the news flow will turn to how the world is coping and grain prices are ameliorating. It may hurt multiple expansion for MOS, just as hints of softening prices may have hurt CF Friday, despite its numbers.

    The sector may enjoy another few months in the sun, but it will now be part of G20 discussion and State Department talking points.

    The time to have bought was back in either early August or mid December.
    Feb 21, 2011. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Former Canadian Income Trusts Can Protect Bond Investors From Dollar Debasement [View article]

    ERF, PWE, PVX have been among my best long-term holdings.

    The monthly dividends in combination with the currency strength have made them even more appealing over the past two years.
    Feb 2, 2011. 10:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium's Perfect Storm for the Automakers [View article]

    What are your thoughts on DH3, the new palladium-infused glass developed at Berkeley Lab and Cal Tech?

    The breakthrough got a lot of press recently. It's a new metallic glass which incorporates palladium's very high "bulk to shear" ratio to traditional glass, thus counteracting the weak, easy-to-fracture nature.

    Wouldn't that more likely drive higher palladium demand than any these developments in cold fusion?
    Feb 1, 2011. 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium's Perfect Storm for the Automakers [View article]

    Thanks. Looking forward to reading it this weekend.
    Jan 29, 2011. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium's Perfect Storm for the Automakers [View article]

    Thanks for your insights!

    I actually believe it was your article back in Feb. 2010 that got me to truly dive into PAL. I had been studying the new ETF introduction and how South African power scarcity and the future World Cup might play out for the platinum miners.

    Your article brought a new level of detail to the palladium discussion. And the disclosure that 95% of your 401K was in PAL and SWC really focused my mind on what kind of "sweet spot" that the non-South African miners might be in for the next few years as Eskom mismanagement choked on that country's growth.

    What a difference a year makes. Here is that article (back when PAL was closer to 3 bucks):
    Jan 22, 2011. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium's Perfect Storm for the Automakers [View article]

    Thanks for the comment.

    According to the FT article, India's sales growth was up 31% in 2010, but is expected to be at 15-18% in 2011:

    Should have added India to my piece to fill out the "brics" demand discussion, but I ran out of time. Based on the FT report, sales will go from 1.87 m in 2010 to an estimated 2.25m in 2011.
    Jan 22, 2011. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium's Perfect Storm for the Automakers [View article]


    My apologies.

    I found the graph images via Google Image this week and must have thought the Johnson Matthey source URL was the link.
    Jan 21, 2011. 09:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Graham Corp.: In the Sweet Spot of the Energy Bull-Market [View article]

    This was part of a larger report that did include US shale oil production, Bakken, PAA's pipelines, and Keystone XL's proposed on-ramp for that area.

    For the sake of brevity, a lot was culled and kept for a second SA article (The original title was "The Coming Year of Hard Truth, Part 1").

    Thanks for your insights.

    Jan 10, 2011. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of Ireland: Following the Citibank Script? [View article]

    That was my logic. And the stock just hit $3.00 this morning.

    Also, bond trading typically tapers off at the end of the year as fund managers close out their positions. So trading is thin and the ECB can move the market with relatively small sums in December. E.C.B. can move spreads a long way without buying that many bonds. Like August, it is not the month when speculators can crack up a country.

    The big money shorted IRE in the Spring and Fall and have closed their positions.

    The complacent shorts don't realize how Flowers and a PE consortium could buy this up with the EU and Irish state's blessing and with certain "protections" assured. Flowers may want to the Jamie Dimon of Ireland this year. He knows the company very well as former CEO.
    Dec 8, 2010. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of Ireland: Following the Citibank Script? [View article]

    As a proud Irishman myself, I certainly didn't mean to be pejorative. I wanted to create a richer sense of how today's in-the-know trader can be tomorrow's complacent "sucker."

    The diaspora after the 1840s famine years sent many destitute, rural peasants from Ireland into cities throughout the English-speaking world. How does a rural population cope with the different skill sets of an urban milieu? Or the chronic underemployment of the "proletariat classes" that existed back then? Some turned to vice and were quite creative with it.

    Obviously only a small fraction of migrating Irish were engaged such activities, but cities were just getting big enough to support a whole ecology of nightlife experiences. And when a country kid arrives in the big city, they have to plug into an income somehow.

    Today, New York wives talk of the "Natashas" that have stolen their husbands. Obviously the vast majority of migrating Russians into the US are not gold diggers or strippers, but that slang term "Natasha" has entered the language.
    Dec 6, 2010. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stopping the European Bailouts Before They Reach Spain [View article]
    Excellent article.
    Dec 1, 2010. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Ideas for Rare Earth, Strategic Metal Exposure [View article]

    Interesting article. If you have time, here is a report I just published at the Carnegie Council on rare earths:
    Nov 15, 2010. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Middle East Has Oil, China Has Rare Earth Minerals [View article]

    Great article. If you have time, check out my recent take on China's rare earths diplomacy:

    I also did a piece at back in Oct, you might find interesting:
    Nov 15, 2010. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Green IPO of the Year [View article]

    Nice article. If you have time, here is an article on China's green revolution and its rare earths diplomacy:
    Nov 15, 2010. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Post-China Price: What Beijing’s Green Revolution Means for Rest of Us [View article]


    Hope the Alaska trip went well.
    Here is my more geopolitical take on China's rare earths policies:
    Nov 15, 2010. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment