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Sean Daly

 
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  • The Post-China Price: What Beijing’s Green Revolution Means for Rest of Us [View article]
    My more geopolitical take on China's rare earths diplomacy:

    policyinnovations.org/...
    Nov 15 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the U.S. Must Defend the Present Currency Regime [View article]
    FX,

    Thanks. From an investment standpoint, I find the historical context helps me grasp the trajectory of events a bit better.

    The impact of macro forces and highly correlated markets is quite intense these days. One recommendation I have: Robert Brenner's "The Boom and the Bubble --the US in the World Economy." It helped me to understand the context of both Plaza Accord of 1985 and the lesser known Reverse Plaza Accord of 1995.
    Nov 10 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the U.S. Must Defend the Present Currency Regime [View article]
    T,

    When I say "the existing system actually created a lot of growth," I mean for the world economy in general. The fiat nature of the dollar standard allowed for expansionary money. It allowed for big gobs of liquidity and capitalization to land in parts of Asia leveled by war.

    The later Asian (Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia) export-platform economies could not have been implemented without the US going off the gold standard. Bretton Woods was feeling pressure even in the 60s, with Japan, Germany and France in the mix, before cracking in '71


    I recommend that you read Robert Brenner's "The Boom and the Bubble --the US in the World Economy." It's a very rich, readable account of US trade and monetary policy from the 70s to the 2000s, exploring it in the context of Japanese and European re-industrialization and then general overcapacity in the 70s.

    There is an intense look at the "hollowing" out of manufacturing in the US and the growing "financialization" of the American economy. The charts and graphs are painful to look at.

    If China's raises the yuan, jobs won't relocate back to the US. But our trading partners in Europe and Asia will be able to lift their currencies and they may buy more US products. Jobs in textiles and toys can go to places like Vietnam and Kenya, and those countries are more open to US products. The low yuan peg hurts many nations.
    Nov 10 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the U.S. Must Defend the Present Currency Regime [View article]
    SethM,

    Thanks. The point of my article was to suggest that existing system, so often maligned today, actually created a lot of growth.

    The Yuan-dollar peg has been in place since July 2008 and helped China weather the credit crisis. China has been a bastion of stability due to the peg, its stimulus, and its proactive good governance. But the world is moving into a new phase of recovery and a new course is required.

    China’s Ministry of Commerce has allegedly been doing impact studies of a Yuan rise on textile manufacturers since early this year. Most policy insiders had expected more movement on the yuan by Beijing in the summer.

    Exporters like Germany and Italy in particular need market share to perpetuate their economies and insure tax revenues. The US cannot risk having them fall into the kind of problems Greece now faces.

    Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia have all been trying to cap their currency advances to compete with Chinese trade more effectively, and that has had a “depressing effect” on economic demand in those countries.
    Nov 10 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Post-China Price: What Beijing’s Green Revolution Means for Rest of Us [View article]
    LP,

    Yes, Stans Energy has a existing Soviet-era mine with impressive HREEs.

    Kyrgyzstan can be beautiful, with breathtaking views in places, but it is a tough place and a tenuous polity. There are often explosive ethnic tensions and it has far less geo-political independence than, say, Kazakhstan. As a nation, it was born a mouse amid cats.

    The Northwest Pacific rim of HREE that includes Ucore's Bokan will better fit the Defense Department's concept of a "secure source."
    Nov 9 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Post-China Price: What Beijing’s Green Revolution Means for Rest of Us [View article]
    US companies are starting to snap up native supplies. Grace has just bought up 75% of MCP's lanthanum and a "letter of business leaders" has been sent to the G-20 on rare earths. Expect the rare earths issue to continue to percolate:

    marketwatch.com/story/...

    nytimes.com/2010/11/05...
    Nov 5 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Post-China Price: What Beijing’s Green Revolution Means for Rest of Us [View article]
    The House approved the RESTART ACT (H.R. 6160) on September 29, 2010, by a vote of 325-98.

    The Senate equivalent --S. 3521(Murkowski)-- entered an Energy subcommittee on Sept. 30. Does anyone know when it goes to a vote? That is truly Ucore's lottery ticket.

    Looks like Alaskan Republican Lisa Murkowski will retain her U.S. Senate seat, beating her rivals as a write-in candidate. This now actually strengthens her position politically as the people's choice.

    RESTART in the Senate should pass overwhelmingly. It was already popular before the Japanese embargo.

    Now even more things line up for the bill: geopolitical issues, Clinton's stated position on REEs, more pro-mining Republicans in Congress, even Obama's clear effort today to focus on a foreign policy cooperation with the GOP in order to score administration successes after this tough election.
    Nov 4 02:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember the Gold Yuan of 1949? Beijing Does. [View article]
    Sean Daly responds:

    In November 2009, State Council advisor Ji Xiaonan suggested that China's gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in 8-10 years. Gold is getting a lot more respect in Beijing.

    As Alan Greenspan once said, "Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody."

    The question is, just how "extreme" is our present situation?

    A little? A lot?
    Oct 28 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Poised to Benefit From the New World Order in Rare Earths [View article]
    Jack,

    I appreciate the kind words.

    Presently I'm looking at rare earths from the European angle, in the context of a broader EU-US governmental cooperation on science and tech.

    Let me know of any links you might recommend on the subject.

    Cheers,

    S.
    Oct 12 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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