Sean Emory

Contrarian, long-term horizon, registered investment advisor, long/short equity
Sean Emory
Contrarian, long-term horizon, registered investment advisor, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2014
Company: Market Meter Research
Great info here and while I continue to hold my view on the company, I will pay even closer attention to the success of their native mobile app launch. Just an update for you, they have about 1,000 users in a soft launch, they like the results so far ( company talk) and expect to launch fully as the year progresses. In terms of pricing, they expect to price it into their most expensive offering, and as a stand alone for non premium packages. Would love to revisit this all in the future, good, bad, or indifferent. Have a good one.
A couple issues here. 1) Betting against George Soros is never a good idea. He has built up his position over the last year, doubling his position last quarter. 2) What is not being recognized and actually no point on either side was made was the conversion to annual subscriptions for Wix. They have seen increased adoption of the annual plan which increases collections which are likely more sticky, but at a lower fee. This move from monthly to annual, decreases the collection/revenue in the short term. With 80% of all premium users now annual, cash flow will be more stable, and sticky. 3) No discussion of the continued growth in Wix App market which its comp doesn't have. Similar to the Apple APP store, Wix has an APP market where outside developers can build products and services for their site. This will not only lock in users, but increase ARPU. 4) No discussion of their purchase in 2014 of Appexia which they are in the test phase and will allow users to build a native app. If done well, this will be another technological advantage over their peers. 5) No discussion of their proprietary billing system which allows for them to be localized and allow users to be globalize do and accept payments worldwide. They are already executing successful integrations with nine gateways in the US, Europe, Latin America, Russia and Brazil, illustrating the strength of the system. 6) Grid.io which you can receive money on referrals has been a consistent failure. They continue to push back launches and last I checked are not very responsive to founding users. 7) Lastly do a simple Google trend search on Wix.com. The company continues to generate massive search results with searches making new highs.
I write these points not because I am just long, but because I think lot was missed in the analysis. Would love to hear your views on the subjects.
Sean.
You didn't talk about valuation once.
Good move. Icahn is going to make a ton of money. Great brand with two very different segments.
Dividend bubble? Their dividend is 3.5% now and averaged a mere 2% since 2013, lower than the market.
Yea they grew distributable income QoQ with net positive inflows. Grew AUM QoQ and year on year. Put $40+ billion to work, and now has $246B fee eligible. That's pretty good.
Don't get the move here. Guided $10b in operating cash flow with continued strength in the order book.
You make an assumption that the guidance for top line issued by the company will be off, but then use the margin guidance for the company as an assumption for bottom line.
It should cost more than trader joes.
Thanks Scoots for the detailed comment. Your core retail holdings are a good group.
Thanks and let me know if you need any more questions answered.
Glad you enjoyed it. Goodluck
Thanks for the response and made me think little bit. I however have to disagree from three angles. One, the vendor relationships are much broader making it less likely that Ross will be able to compete on quality unless their customer base accelerates. Two from visiting stores throughout the research, TJX has a wider and what I would consider higher quality selection. Three, this can all be justified by sales per square foot which likely means they are selling items at slightly higher price points, implying better quality.
View this for the oil servicers as you would plane deliveries for airplane makers, ala Boeing. There is a huge build of servicing needed to be done, just a matter of time.
Notice the 7% comps for stores open at least 5 years. The company weakness is being weighed down by older stores.
Blackstone continues to dominate
That space is so saturated.
Trends remain intact across the housing market.
I mean conceptually I don't like it. But you have to assume they thought of many different ways to monetize YouTube further. With decent revenue shares you could lure stronger production.
Interesting news as they are seeing 10% comps. Also they see their brand getting north of 300 locations. Never been, but interesting use of capital given their historical 14% ROIC.
Yeah little misleading as the gas fluctuation YOY is significant.
Good read. Thanks
As you know I agree. Some look at the price action and potentially submit to the idea that this stock is too volatile. It is indeed volatile but keep in mind there are various moving parts to the risk premium imbedded in this stock. First it is tied to global growth as the author pointed out with the revenue breakdown. The company is also based in Israel with much of its work force potentially subject to military duties. These two risks are present today and moving the stock. As a long term investor you always look for predictable business models with a runway for growth. While the company is seeing some volatility today, the company does possess a predictable business and runway. Lastly, many deem this company as unprofitable, but the adjusted EBITDA based on collections is positive , which is the true way to calculate earnings for a company like this. Management has informed investors that they are not looking to become the most profitable company today, as they are going after growth. This can lead to great rewards and allow us to hit and surpass the targets set by the author. Definitely a company to follow closely, but great company, product, and management nonetheless. Cheers
Pretty good report and is pretty good indicator of consumer.
No talk of merger with ProBuild has me questioning the robust nature of the overall analysis as this is the reason behind the huge move.
Speaks to the job cuts they are making. Efficiency through tech to sustain margins.
Usage of P/B valuation is not ideal for a company in this space. Some of the other points made in the article are relevant, but not thorough enough to make a decision on. Just my two cents and constructive feedback.
Finally get that out of the way after ten years and everyone knowing it was on the horizon.