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Sean Farhy

 
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  • Pair Trade: Buying Gold ETF, Shorting the 20-Year Treasury [View article]
    PEG is high and should come down as earnings and revenues increase. The company is in growth mode and PEG is high but rightfully so. Gold prices and number of ounces mined are expected to increase making revenues and earning rise at faster rate previous historic averages… In that aspect I would agree that the company is more expensive, but you need to look at the whole story…As Kinross earnings increase the price per share should increase as well. The ratios should regress to mean and metrics should move more in line to industry averages. I am assuming that company estimates are correct regarding number of ounces expected to be mined this year. I am using my estimates as Average p/e of a gold stock is around 20 which is where Kinross finds equilibrium after you factor in new earning estimates.

    This is NOT a prediction this is my analysis.
    Jul 15 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pair Trade: Buying Gold ETF, Shorting the 20-Year Treasury [View article]
    Kinross on May 4th increased estimated guidance to 2.67 m oz. with a profit margin of $700 per ounce with gold at say $1400

    Keep the $700 per ounce profit margin and increase number of ounces to 2.5 million ounces mined or 1.75 billion in profits with 1.4 billion shares outstanding gives you a P/E in the neighborhood of 20 or so. You also need to factor in exchange rates, Paulson's Stake, and what may or may not happen to the dollar so there is / are a lot of variables that also come into play. I have also not factored an increase in gold prices… So I think my estimate is actually on the conservative side- but time will be the ultimate judge on this one

    Also look at the Kinross chart on the technical side I think that stock could break out to new highs giving it a $23 - $26 handle or so.

    My Yamana was a similar calc. but I like the fact that Yamana is much smaller and therefore a little more nimble. This is all my opinion. Please let me know if this helps.
    Jul 15 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pair Trade: Buying Gold ETF, Shorting the 20-Year Treasury [View article]
    FYI…The folks at Seeking Alpha changed my the title from "The Great Gold Story Continues" to what is listed above… I am not a fan of the new title
    Jul 14 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Feel Aqua America Is a Must-Own Stock [View article]


    I can't buy them due to compliance issues- but I would love to if I could. So that is why I do not own it…Only because I can't!!

    As far as them being undervalued, you need to look at the whole story not just the PEG rate or PE . I mentioned water being the next great commodity…. You need to do your own DD on that fact- as which is a key element.

    The company is still in acquisition mode and if /when water becomes the next commodity as many are suggestion It is MY opinion you will see above average growth in this stock. In the mean time you get paid very handsomely while you wait, with the potential for decent rise in the stock price.

    The dividend is rate and dividend growth rate is far greater then the S&P 500. 7% div growth for the stock!!

    No one here mentions Enterprise value which is 54% higher than the book value. Draw you own conclusions about a higher enterprise value v. lower book value… That is in my opinion undervalued.

    Hope this answers some of your concerns.
    Jul 10 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Baidu Could Triple From Here [View article]
    Congran and others… who have questions or concerns about my analysis, opinions, data, etc....

    There are many places that will give you growth of 50 - 75% Look on Yahoo under analyst estimates. Bidu's earnings have grown at 90% plus over the past 5 years….

    finance.yahoo.com/q/ae...

    There are many factors that went into me factoring this rate and also overlaying current multiples over google's stock price. Bidu's earnings will rise much more than Google's at this point in each company's life cycle- If you factor this, with the multiples, with new earnings ratios, demographics, increases in income, inceases in internet infrastructure, etc... you can easily get to $300- $600 a share. I took a short cut and again I apologize if my analysis was confusing.

    1. BIDU is trading at an all time high, Google hit an all time high 3 years after going public hence. Both stocks went public around the same time +/- a year or so….IMHO Bidu has much more room to run. They are still in growth mode...

    2. While Bidu is gaining only nominal market share… The number of Chinese citizens coming into "first world" money, technology, etc… is absolutely astounding- Look at numbers, granted they are all over the place- so take them with a grain of salt.


    At the end of the day this is my analysis and opinion - alone, we'll have to wait and see…
    Jul 9 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Baidu Could Triple From Here [View article]
    If you factor the future growth rates of 75% and 50% with the stock price at $147 you get $385.

    147 x 1.75 x 1.5 = $385

    I got $600 from a similar calculation using prior data.

    The p/e will come down as profits increase and the stock matures.You can not just use P/E alone I apologize if that was a little confusing.
    Jul 7 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Diabetes Trade: Why We Like Amylin [View article]
    Thanks for your post. I truly value your insight, coming from a Type 1. After reading all of your athletic accomplishments it makes me happy to know that it doesn't have to slow my son down, when he's older…It certainly hasn't slowed him down now!! Like you, my son is also on an insulin pump which has been nothing less than a blessing… Trying to dose in 1/2 units via a syringe to a then two year old was impossible- especially when the margin of error is a half unit! We had a couple of rough patches that sent him to the hospital, but that hopefully has ended.

    As far as a vaccine… Why would that not be beneficial to a Type 1? If one gets an islet transplant in conjunction with a vaccine would that not alleviate the problem? I'm guessing that once the T-cells are turned on to attack mode they can't be turned off… Sorry to answer my own question, any further insight would be helpful. The LCT does look quite promising I am hoping that they have some real success from that product, it sure sounds like they do from their website.

    Please stay in touch if you hear anything
    Jul 1 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Diabetes Trade: Why We Like Amylin [View article]
    Thanks for the response, to answer your question I am well aware of the deal that Lilly did and also the deal that Pfizer is currently working on. These deals don't preclude them from doing others. I think that buying / investing in other company's pipeline is going to be the future of R&D over some time.
    Jun 30 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Big Pharma Really Trying to Cure Diabetes? We're Seeking Profits and Debunking Myths [View article]
    Thank you so much!!!! Please do contact me if you hear anything that could be of help
    Jun 28 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Big Pharma Really Trying to Cure Diabetes? We're Seeking Profits and Debunking Myths [View article]
    Thanks!!!!
    Jun 28 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Big Pharma Really Trying to Cure Diabetes? We're Seeking Profits and Debunking Myths [View article]
    Thank you so much for your comment!! There is so much I would love to ask you, about the LC Technologies and just the advancement of the industry in the treatment and cure arena, in general. I am pretty sure that LCT does not use immune suppressing drugs, if it does not use these drugs then:

    What is/ are the downside of Prochymal?
    Does the Immune system attack the "pig stem cell" as it would a human cell?
    How long does it work before one would need a future injection?

    And just any other points that you could add to the "layman"- I do my best to try to understand everything that I read on LCT's website, and other industry websites- but there is so much that I am sure I miss things

    About stem cells being a treatment instead of a cure--I am more than okay with an extended treatment …if that means no injections, and checking BGL 12 times a day etc... If you can add anything at all, even the most minuscule of things it would be so appreciated.
    Thanks
    Jun 28 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Big Pharma Really Trying to Cure Diabetes? We're Seeking Profits and Debunking Myths [View article]
    Jim, insulin is THE ONLY way to treat Type 1.
    Jun 28 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Nordisk: Convenient Diabetes Care Could Drive Growth [View article]
    Great article, no one can deny the trends. I have a similar take on NVO as well.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jun 28 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dead BlackBerry Bounce: Buy or Sell? [View article]
    Joel- I love the article and the tie back to great products of the 1980s like the Commodore and the Atari. I happen to have a slightly different take on RIMM based upon that they are still a larger player in the corporate / business world.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    I think RIMM should hold support at around $28 but could go as low as $20 depending whether or not all the bad news is out. Before earnings I thought the stock could get taken over at $49 or so which was a 30% - 40% premium. I still think that this type of premium is still in place but at this price a $39 -$42 target is more likely. Now this could very easily change with any combination of a little bit of good news, a bidding war, and / or a heavy short squeeze.

    We'll have to see what happens
    Jun 22 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM Earnings Call: That Wasn't So Good, Was It? [View article]
    Rocco- I don't know if you have had a chance to read my latest article on RIMM. I am hopeful that RIMM will hold support here, but we'll have to wait and see. The facts are they still $4 in cash a share and trade at 9 times forward earnings. Company makes money and is a deep value play.... or a value trap depending if all the bad news is out... Which I happen to believe most of it is.

    I agree that there needs to be a catalyst. The stock probably won't bottom until there is a shake up with management, mainly the CEOs. After that then to stock can move forward. I also think RIMM will most likely need to find a some kind of strategic partnership or be flat out taken over. These layoffs should give management good reason to cut a lot fat and focus on their new OS so it can be out, up and running, and bug free by the beginning of next year.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jun 18 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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