Sean Hannon

Why XTO Energy Is Overvalued

Today's price movement justifies my thesis. With a 5%+ move in oil (and natural gas higher on the week as well), XTO is slightly lower. I shorted the shares Monday morning at $41.85 so am currently sitting on a small profit. However, I will now be covering. Where XTO had refused to move lower with falling energy prices and was 2% overvalued versus my reserve value, I now see the shares 15% undervalued versus reserves given the large increase in energy prices. Having seen the market change, so will I and am currently covering my short position at market prices.

An Option Trade for RIM's Earnings Announcement

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On Sep 25 10:01 AM relayer75 wrote:

> Well done. Please update when you buy to cover. RIMM is @ $70.11
> as I write this, at 10 a.m. e.s.t. on 9/25.

Why I'm Shorting Visa

It should bounce off $60 as the first line of support and I will be looking to close my short there. If it falls through $60 on heavy volume, $52 would be my price target.


On Jun 17 07:15 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:

> Sean I'm curious, through your stock analysis. How low do you expect
> Visa to go?

Why I'm Shorting Visa

Per Bloomberg, Visa has a beta vs gold of -.3 and an r-squared of .038.


On Jun 16 12:39 PM Graham Jervis wrote:

> Just out of curiosity, has anyone looked at the correlation to VISA's
> stock price and Gold? i know visa has been trading for a short period,
> but i was just curious if anyone noticed a correlation.

MasterCard Could Be a Potential 'Black Swan'

Same applies for V. Given the cost of the option, MA (with higher stock price) offers more potential return.

Shorting the Four Horsemen as Market Grinds Lower?

QID delivers 2 times the inverse of the QQQQ. Since the returns are based on daily results, QID should never be used for a long-term tactical asset allocation choice. There are many articles all over this website that explains the problems with using leveraged ETFs for portfolio decisions. Leveraged ETS like QID should only be used for trading purposed while shorts in the actual ETF are more ideal for portfolio management purposes. Hope this helps explain the choice of using the short QQQQ as opposed to QID


On Mar 02 08:40 AM User 234014 wrote:

> If you are shorting the QQQQ rather than executing a more cost effective
> way through a long QID position my guess is you also spend more time
> writing blog entries than actually trading.

First Solar: Expecting a Sell-Off

I think your points are valid and the fact that FSLR has held up during the recent sell-off is impressive. The decision to exit is based on the belief that I think market are heading lower and I am looking to protect my portfolio. I understand those who which to hold the shares as the macro-themes are very much in FSLR's favor. However, if you do so please consider option trades to protect your position. When markets break violently, anything can happen


On Feb 16 09:32 AM Sarge wrote:

> With earnings coming (2/24) and FSLR's history of beating estimates,
> do you really believe it wise to close your position now? Better
> than expected earnings coupled with a stimulus bump could mean good
> gains for FSLR in the weeks ahead.

Proposed Solution for Toxic Assets Plaguing Banks

I agree - As I wrote in an article on this site on 2/13 (seekingalpha.com/artic...)

Your argument echoes mine that the only way to solve the issue is through a profit sharing agreement.

Gingerly Wading Back into Financials

Say what you want about my analysis, but the fact is despite buying all these positions at the open Tuesday morning, I am currently profitable on 5 of the 7 trades with an average return across the entire group of 2.5%. During that same time period the Dow has dropped 1.2%. My only job is to make money for my clients, not offer cynical views. Like it or not, I am on the right side of this trade.

Gold Loses Its Shine

Please keep in mind that this is a technical trade - not a long term stance on the future price of gold. I have a tight stop loss so any rally in gold will have a minimal effect on my portfolio while a sell-off we bring nice rewards (see the final paragraph). To paraphrase - "There is only one side to the market. It is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." With gold off 3% this morning, I am on the right side. By using tight stops and prudent risk management, I can keep it that way.

DryShips: Poised to Rally

This is one of the main reasons I would never hold these shares long term. I do not like their governance and think there is too much self-dealing. That is why I stressed in the article this is purely a rented short term position for quick profit - not a long term portfolio holding.


On Jan 05 03:40 PM notsosmart wrote:

> can you trust management?

2009: Potential Surprises and Other Predictions

What the article shows are what I expect to happen (S&P drops to 625), but I wanted to be fair and also highlight potential surprises that could occur. I don't expect a large January rally, but wanted to point out the possibility that one could occur.

On Dec 31 02:06 PM prudentinvestor wrote:

> Seems a bit inconsistent to first say that you expect the S&P
> to drop to 625, then to tell us you expect +10-20% "January Effect"
> followed by bull market recovery in H2, 2009.
>
> This implies that a lot of very short-sighted investors are going
> to give away their stocks in Q2/Q3, 2009.
>