Sean Maher

By Any Definition, a Crash

I agree, and I called the commodity bubble right in the Spring, and have been aggressively short equities since August (see blog)...900 on the S&P is 10.4 (or the long time average) times cyclically adjusted peak earnings and was my floor target in this selling panic. Bombed out value opportunites abound, and on the first significant reversal in Libor/TED spread, stocks will have a record rally...we'll see how Lehman's CDS auction goes today.

CDS Market: It's Crunch Time

Good point re Fannie and Feddie, see latest blog post re closing my short positions (the one above was actually posted on the blog on 5th October, SeekingAlpha are a bit slow these days!)

Have We Reached a Near-Term Bottom?

Great blog, I posted a very similar analysis on Seeking Alpha today, this is the best second chance shorting opportunity since oil hit $147 twice in July; the short-selling rules will have the perverse effect of removing a key revenue stream for MS and GS and also reducing their available cash (hedge fund margin deposits)...the law of unintended consequences will mock the whims of politicians!

The Great Consumer Crash of 2009

Good summary of the deleveraging pain now facing US consumers; I've discussed a structural downshift in US consumption (and necessarily huge rise in infrastructure spend) on my blog many times; while attention is focused on the slumping subprime mortgage market, the biggest risk going forward is in superprime 'McMansion' loans, of $500k-$2m where default rates are climbing fast; the greatest overconsumption/debt accumulation in the boom years has been among the professional middle classes striving to maintain their 'deserved' lifestyle in the face of stagnating salaries and soaring service inflation. As white collar job losses rise, this may cause a whole new wave of foreclosures in upmarket suburbs nationwide.

Crude Decline Bullish for Stocks: Rebalance & Buy on Weakness

Agree with your analysis that we are set for a tradable bear rally (10-15% on the S&P) as posted on my finance blog Dead Cats Bouncing, and leadership is already rotating away from commodity exposed sectors; airlines, refiners, and financials/housing are all high beta rally plays if we head toward $100 on crude as I expect. Good sell call on China last Autumn; after the subsequent crash it's now on 21x trailing earnings and will benefit from falling global energy and food prices.