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Sean Privitera

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  • Oil ETFs: Cramer Discovers Contango, But Forgets History [View article]
    The thing about USO is that it was experiencing a disconnect because traders were gaming it based on its large scale rollover. Now that it is not rolling over in that fashion anymore it is harder to game it by shorting right before the roll over. Also, Jim leaves out the tax benefit received by holding the stock at year end (flow through loss on the K-1) because this stock is a partnership. So not only do you see a short term capital loss but you also see a loss from the partnership. USO is complicated but like you said, you can't really own physical oil so you are pretty much stuck with it. I am still a proponent of oil as you can see here:
    Apr 6 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Dollar Crocodile Tears [View article]
    HaavBline: The reason China could sigle handedly shut down the US as the reserve currency is due to the large nature of their holdings. If they dumped all $1 Trillion (worst case scenario and this would take a while to do) This would significantly devalue the dollar at a time when the US needs to issue more debt - making the new debt much more expensive in an environment where US bonds become worth less. If China dropped their $1 Trillion it would lower the value giving other countries the incentive to sell if the other countries started to notice the trend that China was starting. China is more likely to slow or stop its purchases then to sell. It would hurt their investment too much to sell. I bet they're feeling like idiots now for not buying TIPS (even if the CPI numbers are manipulated). They did see a huge gain for 2008 for their treasuries investment, but this was also during the biggest global meltdown in half a century.
    Mar 26 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Detach Capital Requirements from Mark to Market? [View article]
    I totally agree that this problem is a direct result of the "corporate greed and FED printing press" as well as allowing banks to lever 30 to 1. I am definitely not BLAMING mark to market for any of this. All I am doing is proposing a better solution that doesn't involve as much goverment involvement, and more socialism.
    Mar 26 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    Takin some profits because of this 11%+ run up yesterday and today. Still long USO. This would be a great time to switch from USO to GLD to achieve what I was talking about above. That the GLD price was too high and now that the USO/GLD relationship has inverted GLD starts to look better.
    Feb 26 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    USO goes up 6% and the comments turn to crickets.
    Feb 25 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    The GDP 177th ranking comes from the article linked where it is referenced (Links show up as Blue).

    The 4 Trillion Tax income numbers for the government come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis its the 1st result on Google for "US GDP" (Is everyone familiar with the Search engine Google?).

    For the proponents of USL, USO has been outperforming it on a % basis now that the contango is shrinking.

    Feb 25 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    I also like UGA - Gasolene ETF
    Feb 23 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    I'm all ears if you want to list 'em.

    USL has done better over the last month than USO, and I would recommend that also but either are good plays.
    Feb 23 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble: The Sequel [View article]
    I agree that the economy is still screwed overall, it takes a job to get a house, etc. I say those same things when referring to the economy coming back. I am only claiming a short term bubble and I am definitely agreeing with all of you that this will not be REAL growth at all. It will still be more of the same shadow growth. It will be short lived, and will look like the bear market rally in the market we had after the late November low, which was followed by an even lower low.

    Reitbull - Nice point, but real estate has seemed to be tied together so either way you go you'll probably get some of that effect.

    I am not necessarily saying to buy IYR right now, it likely will experience more downside first while being dragged down by the overall market and maybe even leading the downside as we're seeing today.
    Feb 23 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]

    Apparently you haven't seen the 60 minutes interview on Oil. It was stated in the interview that JP Morgan was one of the largest holders of oil when it was at the astronomic price levels. This doesn't mean that it was necessarily JP Morgan the company, it could have been JP Morgan on the part of investors through JPM ETF holdings.

    More info on the $53 Trillion - Just Google David Walker for even more info, he's been on just about every news channel talking about this......

    BC818: Other Oil ETF's are fine, but USO, USL and OIL are the actual commodity and OIH is the equity. I have some BP too for equity stake (Jim Cramer really likes BP...and I use their gas...or my gas since I'm an equity holder :) ).

    Feb 23 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil [View article]
    The JPM allegation comes directly from a 60 minutes interview: believe it if you want, I don't care. I consider them a reliable source.

    the 53 trillion in debt comes straight from the former comptroller of the US David Walker and no 60 minutes isn't my only source it just happens this was the first interview of him I pulled up:

    Upside is not contingent on the economy, if you read my currency point.

    I didn't buy at the top, but only recently have begun buying and buying more on dips.

    My timeline for this is could be indefinite like Jim Rogers is on Gold. I know that might sound weird but the timeline really depends on how fast the dollar deteriorates.
    Feb 22 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: Still the World's Reserve Currency? [View article]
    Great discussion-

    Bluesmoke- I haven't heard anything formally, but I have heard about a new currency that the middle east was trying too start for oil, but it couldn't be finalized because the underwater cables were cut "accidentally". Sounds 'fishy'. Either way you look at it, it won't be an overnight collapse, and might not happen for a few years yet, but one indicative sign that it is coming is the change to oil trading denominated in Euros now instead of dollars.
    Feb 22 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LUV for a Southwest Airlines Play [View article]
    Same goes to you, no bio, no reference to what you do for a living... no basis for credibility.
    Jan 28 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LUV for a Southwest Airlines Play [View article]
    1.Thats entirely possible and if so I'll buy more.

    2. On the CNBC Squawk interview last week the CEO stated that they are not locked into prices and are paying spot prices for fuel. I don't know for sure if they have more hedges, but if they do and they are as small of a loss as they had due to their hedge losses in the 4th quarter, the gains in access to spot fuel will much outweigh, taking LUV's fuel costs from 10B last year to 2B this year based on the CEO's comments. Of course companies can lie but all we have to go on is what they tell us and if they lie its on them to prove it later. Also, the benefit that LUV looks to get from this versus other airlines would require that the other airlines have forward contracts or futures contracts and not options.

    3. Obviously you also like this stock for some reason or you wouldn't be paying too much attention to it. You might pay attention to it to be short it or are waiting to buy it. If your short it, that still means you are a future buyer of it and want to know when its going to make a move up.

    4. I meant to explain that the USO/LUV trade is that if oil goes up, USO does too. If oil goes down, LUV experiences a benefit on fuel costs.

    5. My main reason for buying this is the fuel advantage and only have a small position because I know it has high risk. If the fuel advantage changes or turns out to not be true, get the hell out. There are no for sure equities right now as the market is like a shark tank full of traders.
    Jan 28 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LUV for a Southwest Airlines Play [View article]
    1.Which is why now is the time to buy LUV and not at its 52wk high of 16.

    2.There is currently no hedge, LUV is just buying fuel at spot rates. There is no law against buying fuel at spot rates.

    3.You still don't understand the fuel hedge concept so just stop.

    4.You started with the attacks.
    Jan 26 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment