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  • The Buyback And Warren Buffett Help Deere's Stock To Master The Downturn [View article]
    Divseekerdave,
    maybe the storyline has not changed, but Deere's valuation has. Let's wait what will happen next year...
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buyback And Warren Buffett Help Deere's Stock To Master The Downturn [View article]
    User 286, thank you for the kind words. Then the both of us will continue watching and waiting for the right entry point.
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buyback And Warren Buffett Help Deere's Stock To Master The Downturn [View article]
    Thank you CCM, I am waiting for this day to come...
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buyback And Warren Buffett Help Deere's Stock To Master The Downturn [View article]
    Sir, shares can only fall if there are more sellers than buyers. Obviously this has not yet been the case. Ultimately it will come down to how long and severe the downturn will be - just as you say.
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons It Makes Sense For Potash Corp. To Acquire K+S [View article]
    MKW, I would not expect that much political opposition, K+S does not have a big lobby in Germany. My primary concern would be regulatory approval.
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons It Makes Sense For Potash Corp. To Acquire K+S [View article]
    Rohit SSS,
    I am not too concerned about debt and the issuance of new shares. Both POT and K+S generate a lot of cash which will allow to pay back debt fairly quickly and in the long run possibly also the shares which were issued in the first place.
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons It Makes Sense For Potash Corp. To Acquire K+S [View article]
    baerrus,
    I think it makes sense for POT to continue production in Germany to supply the European market and for the specialty products. Ironically there might be less opposition from Germany than you expect as K+S is already confronted with a lot of concerns from environmentalists. Cutting production, but not shutting down the entire operations and filling the gap with production from Canada would be a reasonable way forward.
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Trades Close To Its 52-Week Low And Yields More Than 5% [View article]
    HensD, copper could indeed become a catalyst long-term, but not much will happen in the next 2-3 years. Oyu Tolgoi had a lot of issues and Mongolia is not the best country to invest, therefore we will probably have to wait for phase 2 until the real potential materializes.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Trades Close To Its 52-Week Low And Yields More Than 5% [View article]
    shn1974,
    the "minor" was indeed a typo, submitted an edit. The major miners continue to increase production, but the big uncertainty is how many small Chinese producers are forced to stop production. There are no reliable figures about these volumes available, but ultimately this development could support the iron ore price to a larger extent than the bears expect.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Trades Close To Its 52-Week Low And Yields More Than 5% [View article]
    Dr. Duru,
    I am not particularly optimistic for iron ore prices, I am just not as pessimistic as many others... Nobody thought that iron ore prices would recover so quickly from the April lows and a mid-term average price of $60 does not seem so far-fetched, at least not for me. Steel demand outside China will continue to grow, primarily in India, but also in other Asian countries.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marrone Bio Innovations' Investors Are Still Flying Blind [View article]
    Triptomelus, thanks for your comments. What you say may very well be true. Therefore I say, an investment in MBI today is pure speculation. But let me ask you: Was AgraQuest worth what Bayer paid for it? Or Becker Underwood? Compared to the $425M for AgraQuest, MBII is already a bargain today (of course not to mention the $5M or whatever it might cost in 1-2 years if it really goes belly up)...
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K+S: An Alternative In The Potash Sector With A Growing Yield [View article]
    To make one thing clear: I would not count on consistent dividend growth year over year and therefore I do not consider K+S a classical "dividend growth stock". The company has a clear policy to pay out 40-50% and if you extrapolate the dividends for ten-year period 2004-14, there is a clear growth trajectory. See slide 84 in this presentation (http://bit.ly/1FLPa2Q). However, there can be years of dividend cuts, as it happened in 2013. For the next years, I expect EPS to grow and hence dividends to increase.
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K+S: An Alternative In The Potash Sector With A Growing Yield [View article]
    Let me comment on the costs. The current version of the “K+S Compendium” (http://bit.ly/1FLPa2Q), the source which Mark0f0 has provided guides towards cash costs of CAD185/ton (CAD90 cash costs + CAD65 transportation + CAD30 royalties, based on USD250 ex works). Then there is D&A, estimated at CAD40/ton and not to forget interest. K+S generates a lot of cash-flow, so a fair part of the CAD4.0 billion investment in the Legacy project comes from there which will also help to repay debt rather quickly. The company has currently issued 3 bonds (€500 million each) with an average interest rate of 3.42% and had net debt of €1.7B at the end of 2014.
    All these figures refer to the full capacity of phase 1+2 (2.86 million tons) and initially, the costs per ton will be higher. I guess the reality lies somewhere in the middle between K+S’ assumptions and the pessimistic picture which POT paints for the new projects.
    My conclusion therefore is that the Legacy project 1) will be cash-positive and generate a positive margin even in the current price environment and 2) considering the investment and the AISC, the payback period for the project will be very long and I assume that this money had better been spent elsewhere. This is why I said I am not a big fan of the project, but most of the money is already spent anyhow and this fact is also reflected in the share price.
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K+S: An Alternative In The Potash Sector With A Growing Yield [View article]
    Oops, sorry - of course you are right that was a mistake. I have submitted an edited version of the article.
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marrone Bio Innovations' Investors Are Still Flying Blind [View article]
    The most interesting asset the company has is the technology and the IP. It would cost a potential buyer, e.g. a crop protection company more to develop it on its own. The financial performance of MBI is not really relevant in this context. If it really happens, I cannot tell. Like I said, it's a speculation...
    Jun 10, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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