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  • Please Help Us Pick Outstanding Performance Award Winners For January [View article]
    I would nominate 3 of my ideas

    1. This negative on SDRL calling the dividend unsustainable back in February because of a levered balance sheet (SDRL has since eliminated the dividend). This article caused quite a bit of controversy (

    2. My first of many negative articles on Linn, arguing it could not generate accretive growth (also quite controversial!)

    3. My long thesis on Synaptics when it was trading $45 saying the move to touchscreens would push it pass $70 (
    Dec 29, 2014. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Suffers Another Blow [View article]
    Thanks for the support rlp!
    Dec 14, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    I expect it to be minimal as KMI only signs long-term contracts with very credit worthy borrowers. The average E&P company contracted to the pipeline has a single-A credit rating, meaning there should be very few bankrupt companies that KMI is exposed to.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    The average credit rating of a shipper on its pipelines is single-A, so these are less levered firms that will most likely survive the downturn. While there will be bankruptcies, this will have a very limited impact on KMI. In the tar sands, I've read everything from $55 to $100, depending on location. $70 is probably a good average cost estimate
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    That is correct.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Chevron [View article]
    What's your beef? I got CREE wrong and have said so in the past. No one bats 1.000, and in investing, you have to learn to manage mistakes. If you look at my articles, I have been NEGATIVE on T for months not positive. That has worked out well. Good luck investing!
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling Exxon Mobil Goes Against The Grain Of A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Thanks for publishing this article. Nothing is better than vigorous debate when making investment decisions. We'll see who's right over time, but I always enjoy your pieces (Perhaps we'll both be right to some degree with the stock falling into the $70's before recovering). Best of luck!
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Lawsuit, Seadrill Is Nearly Worth Buying [View article]
    debt to EBITDA is how I calculate leverage
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Without A Dividend, Transocean May Be A Buy [View article]
    Frankly, I did not see the dramatic fall in oil coming, and that is my mistake. I am working to ensure I don't make another one like that.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Without A Dividend, Transocean May Be A Buy [View article]
    Admittedly, I got CREE totally wrong, but I am comfortable with my track record (ie recommending selling SDRL and LINE months ago). Inherent in investing is making mistakes. If you can't handle that, don't buy stocks.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Without A Dividend, Transocean May Be A Buy [View article]
    Thank you!
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect's Distribution Is Not Sustainable [View article]
    I want to spend a moment on this taxable income/NII debate. Investors should be focusing on NII and not taxable income when considering long term sustainability of the distribution. Taxable income can be distorted by one time gains that are not sustainable sources of cash flows which is why I prefer to look at net investment income to taxable income. Recording a one-time capital gain/getting a windfall dividend is nice but it may never happen again, and can make taxable income look a heck of a lot better. However, that strong taxable income is really a false sign of health as those cash flows don't re-appear. Net investment income is a superior measure of long term dividend capacity, and I focus on the 90% level since overtime 90%+ of profits must be returned to maintain BDC status. Taxable income is important for near term payouts, but I am focusing beyond the next Q, hence the emphasis on NII
    Dec 4, 2014. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Seadrill [View article]
    If you read my articles, you will see I've been consistently recommending selling SDRL since February. I am many things but not late
    Nov 28, 2014. 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Accelerate The Buyback Program [View article]
    The average diluted share count last quarter was 1.701 billion. In the year ago quarter, it was 1.738 billion, so the share count did fall in aggregate. Because of share compensation as you are well aware, share count falls by less than the buyback, but the company is actually cutting share count. I agree with you that QCOM should continue to pay out growing dividends, along with buybacks from its free cash flow. A balanced capital return plan is best.
    Nov 12, 2014. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: What A 'Sit On Your Hands' Investment Looks Like [View article]
    I have two primary concerns. First, if revenue and actual earning stagnates why do you think the multiple will expand so much. Second, in real terms (ex-inflation), revenue would be falling. However, I expect things like wages will go up. As such a 0% revenue growth scenario would likely lead to margin erosion. In other words, don't you think there would be a decent chance if revenue stays the same (but some costs presumably rise with inflation), IBM could not earn $16 billion if revenue stayed flat over time?
    Oct 24, 2014. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment