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  • Annaly Is A Great Way To Bet On A Slow Fed [View article]
    The dividend is secure the next 6 months in my opinion. The point I am trying to bring home is that even a bad scenario for NLY, I only see the dividend cut to $0.21. During the last hiking cycle, the dividend got cut to $0.10. My point is that I don't see the dividend being cut that far. I think the stock is pricing in a dividend cut, but as the Fed should move slow, the risk to the dividend is not as grave as the market is pricing in.
    Aug 31, 2015. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: The 8.8% Yield Isn't Too Good To Be True [View article]
    Both KMI and ETP are Investment grade companies, and I think both can handle their debt load. However, ETP is less levered than KMI (4-4.5x EBITDA vs 5.5-6x for KMI)
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: The 8.8% Yield Isn't Too Good To Be True [View article]
    I am not speaking to an IRS requirement but a requirement from the ETP partnership agreement reading, "Within 45 days following the end of each Quarter, an amount equal to 100% of Available Cash with respect to such
    Quarter shall, subject to Section 17-607 of the Delaware Act, be distributed in accordance with this Article VI by the Partnership to
    the Partners as of the Record Date selected by the General Partner in its reasonable discretion." (page 47)

    This type of language (with available cash essentially operating cash flow less maintenance cap-ex) is fairly common in MLP partnership agreements.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips - A Durable Oil Company With Upside [View article]
    CVX and COP are definitely more levered to oil than XOM, and their dividend growth over next 2 years will likely be lower (though they yield more currently). However with their strong balance sheets and commitments to their dividends, I don't foresee cuts from either name
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: The 8.8% Yield Isn't Too Good To Be True [View article]
    ETE is a levered play on ETP, so I think it can work as well. However, ETE is currently engaging in an effort to buyout WMB, so there is some uncertainty around the name. That speculation should not impact ETP, and I do worry a bit ETE may over-pay. Given that, I retain a slight preference for ETP.

    If ETE does not buyout, I think a roll-up of ETP like with KMI is quite possible.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Investors Should Consider Chevron [View article]
    To be honest if you don't think oil will be over $40 for 10 years, I wouldn't own oil stocks. I also think this would imply a fall in demand (ie a recession), so you wouldn't want to own cyclical stocks either.
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet With Buffett, Buy Boeing [View article]
    that is an interesting theory and is plausible as at $90 billion (plus a premium) BA is to big for Buffett to easily buy
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: The Fear Is Overblown [View article]
    Yes I think Mintzmyer wrote a compelling piece. My one qualm would be his focus on averaging historical 3 year cash flows/results to come up with future valuations. The bull case rests (I believe validly) on FCF continuing to rise the next 3 years, making valuation more reasonable. It all comes down to how the business performs going forward, and smart, reasonable people can come to different conclusions. That is what makes investing so much fun!
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Please Help Us Pick Outstanding Performance Award Winners For January [View article]
    I would nominate 3 of my ideas

    1. This negative on SDRL calling the dividend unsustainable back in February because of a levered balance sheet (SDRL has since eliminated the dividend). This article caused quite a bit of controversy (

    2. My first of many negative articles on Linn, arguing it could not generate accretive growth (also quite controversial!)

    3. My long thesis on Synaptics when it was trading $45 saying the move to touchscreens would push it pass $70 (
    Dec 29, 2014. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Suffers Another Blow [View article]
    Thanks for the support rlp!
    Dec 14, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    I expect it to be minimal as KMI only signs long-term contracts with very credit worthy borrowers. The average E&P company contracted to the pipeline has a single-A credit rating, meaning there should be very few bankrupt companies that KMI is exposed to.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    The average credit rating of a shipper on its pipelines is single-A, so these are less levered firms that will most likely survive the downturn. While there will be bankruptcies, this will have a very limited impact on KMI. In the tar sands, I've read everything from $55 to $100, depending on location. $70 is probably a good average cost estimate
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Kinder Morgan's Oil Exposure [View article]
    That is correct.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Chevron [View article]
    What's your beef? I got CREE wrong and have said so in the past. No one bats 1.000, and in investing, you have to learn to manage mistakes. If you look at my articles, I have been NEGATIVE on T for months not positive. That has worked out well. Good luck investing!
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling Exxon Mobil Goes Against The Grain Of A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Thanks for publishing this article. Nothing is better than vigorous debate when making investment decisions. We'll see who's right over time, but I always enjoy your pieces (Perhaps we'll both be right to some degree with the stock falling into the $70's before recovering). Best of luck!
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment