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  • Porsche And Audi Just Cemented Tesla's Lead [View article]
    That will give Tesla a market cap of ~15 trillion dollars. Many Tesla investors seem a bit detached from reality, but this takes the cake.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:18 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals Keeps Illustrating Why It's Not Built For Commercial Success [View article]
    The doubts on Acadia's ability to market and manufacture Nuplazid may be justified. I'm not convinced. Small molecules are easy to manufacture, and effective/safe drugs with no good competition are easy to market.

    But let's say the doubts are justified. If Acadia doesn't get Nuplazid worked out in the near future, someone else will. In that case, Acadia gets bought out somewhere around the current price, maybe higher. $4B is cheap for a drug that you suggest could do $5B a year in sales in experienced hands.

    Alternately, Acadia does succeed in launching Nuplazid and the stock appreciates drastically.

    Heads, we win. Tails, we don't lose. What's not to like about that?
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iconix Brand Group Part 5: Iconix's True Profitability, And The Trend Of Its Real Return On Equity Over Time [View article]
    Seriously, no one is going to read a five part thesis this long. And no robust thesis is going to take this much verbiage to describe.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirtex Medical And Liver Cancer, Will Some Patients Be Cured? [View article]
    The problem with this result is the following: Liver progression was dramatically reduced (12 months to 20 months), but overall progression stayed the same (~10 months).

    That suggests that progression outside the liver is the more common/urgent problem, and SIRT has no effect on it. Now it may be that liver progression is the more deadly problem (I don't know) in which case SIRT would help with overall survival. But given that non-liver progression happens faster, and SIRT has no effect on that, I worry that SIRT won't help where it counts: overall survival.

    Also, this study was in liver metastases of colorectal cancer, which is completely different from liver cancer. This study provides no information whatsoever on the use of SIRT in liver cancer.
    Jun 2, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are Cautious On Adaptimmune Therapeutics IPO [View article]
    I would add this: two patients (out of 13 treated) died of cardiogenic shock 4-5 days after treatment with Adaptimmune's MAGE-A3 TCR product. That doesn't seem to be a problem for the NY-ESO TCR product. Still, it looks like a significant risk for their pipeline since they don't understand why it happened with MAGE-A3, so it could happen with any of their new TCR products.

    see slide 22 and later in this presentation:
    May 5, 2015. 08:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Rocket Fuel Finally Makes Sense [View article]
    Thanks, 247yak.

    I have noticed those big differences in gross margins, and try to account for them in my thinking.
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Rocket Fuel Finally Makes Sense [View article]
    Thanks, Charles.

    I have a nice position in SZMK I picked up between your October and November articles. Obviously very happy with that. And you're right, TRMR does look just unbelievably beaten down and inexpensive now. I'm literally blown away to be looking at these relatively promising looking companies with EV/revenues under 0.3.

    My problem is that this space seems to be very competitive and I don't have an understanding of the competitive strength/weakness and market opportunities of the different companies. I don't even see how an outsider could hope to get such an understanding. MM for instance, was looking appealing to me. Again, just super cheap on EV/Rev. Their growth isn't what you might like any more, but they tell a pretty good story around the Nexage acquisition.

    Anyway, thanks again for your input.
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Rocket Fuel Finally Makes Sense [View article]
    Thanks for another excellent article, Charles.

    What are you thoughts on the relative investment merits of FUEL vs. SZMK vs. MM? I know they're not all directly comparable, but they are all in your field of expertise, and they've all recently become much more attractively priced.
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks give up gains as ECB rejects Greek paper as acceptable collateral [View news story]
    I question the credibility of anyone who claims to know how this Greece-EU situation is going to play out.
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cubist: Zerbaxa Upholds The Potential To Replace Cubicin [View article]
    How do you imagine Cubist shareholders are going to benefit from Zerbaxa? Cubist is being purchased by Merck for $102/share. 1.3% upside from here. What's the point of making sales estimates and EPS guesses? It's all going to Merck.
    Jan 5, 2015. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrusion Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Ratio [View article]
    Interesting find; good write up.

    Seems like a similar story to Cyren (CYRN), another internet security company. CYRN is a bit more of a "value" based on established (slow growth) products: ~$30 million in revenues vs. ~$65 million market cap fully diluted, and roughly break-even for cash flows. Looks like INTZ is already getting some growth out of their new products; CYRN's new product growth is expected to take off in 2015.
    Dec 4, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LiqTech's Path To $100 Million In Sales [View article]
    Interesting company and a nice write-up.

    Any thoughts on their choice of auditor? The auditor on last year's annual report, Gregory & Associates of Salt Lake City, has one partner and zero professional staff. That's not a red flag I wouldn't think, but it does seem a little sketchy to me.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Punching Above Its Weight, Little-Known Pointer Telocation Has Multi-Bagger Potential [View article]
    A couple of very nice articles on PNTR today. I'll admit I'm mostly sold on the idea. Reading their filings, one thing bothers me a bit compared to what's written up in these articles. Both articles mention the road side assistance (RSA) program, a legacy asset, while focusing on the growth of the telematics business.

    But if you look at the filings, it looks a little messier than that. They do have the RSA service, but they also do emergency home repairs, and they own half of an Israeli car sharing service (like Zipcar). Just in 2011 they bought a chain of auto repair garages in Israel to complement the RSA service. I haven't finished reading, but I can't (yet) tell how much of their service revenue comes from these low-tech, lower growth businesses. I guess it doesn't matter so much, since the stock is cheap and the telematics business obviously is large and growing.

    Nevertheless, it does give the appearance that management may not be sufficiently focused on the telematics business. That does matter. The CEO certainly seems focused on the right things in this interview. But this is the same CEO who bought the car repair garages a few years ago. It's not a show stopper, but it does reduce my comfort level a bit.
    Nov 18, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering In China Will Be An Arduous Task For Guess [View article]
    Asia as a whole makes up ~14% of GES's revenue. Of their 501 Asian stores, only ~14% of those are outside South Korea. Not all of that is China, but even if it was, that would give a reasonable estimate of China revenues of 2% of GES's total revenues.

    So, why should a GES shareholder seriously worry about something so insignificant to the company? The shares are in pretty deep value territory here with a 4% dividend, lots of cash to weather any hard times... Could something go wrong? Sure, but I don't think it's likely to be China.
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone Is Possibly The Most Misunderstood Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I use it for modern Greek, a significantly more complex/difficult language than English and most European languages. It works great for me. I have to say though, learning to read and write is different than learning to speak and understand. Rosetta is great for the latter, maybe less so for the former, and maybe weaker for Asian languages. I couldn't say. I can say that traditional language courses such as Coursera offers, wouldn't appeal to me. There will always be a lot of options in this space, but I think for ease of use and brand power, Rosetta Stone is in a very strong position.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment