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  • Intrusion Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Ratio [View article]
    Interesting find; good write up.

    Seems like a similar story to Cyren (CYRN), another internet security company. CYRN is a bit more of a "value" based on established (slow growth) products: ~$30 million in revenues vs. ~$65 million market cap fully diluted, and roughly break-even for cash flows. Looks like INTZ is already getting some growth out of their new products; CYRN's new product growth is expected to take off in 2015.
    Dec 4, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LiqTech's Path To $100 Million In Sales [View article]
    Interesting company and a nice write-up.

    Any thoughts on their choice of auditor? The auditor on last year's annual report, Gregory & Associates of Salt Lake City, has one partner and zero professional staff. That's not a red flag I wouldn't think, but it does seem a little sketchy to me.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Punching Above Its Weight, Little-Known Pointer Telocation Has Multi-Bagger Potential [View article]
    A couple of very nice articles on PNTR today. I'll admit I'm mostly sold on the idea. Reading their filings, one thing bothers me a bit compared to what's written up in these articles. Both articles mention the road side assistance (RSA) program, a legacy asset, while focusing on the growth of the telematics business.

    But if you look at the filings, it looks a little messier than that. They do have the RSA service, but they also do emergency home repairs, and they own half of an Israeli car sharing service (like Zipcar). Just in 2011 they bought a chain of auto repair garages in Israel to complement the RSA service. I haven't finished reading, but I can't (yet) tell how much of their service revenue comes from these low-tech, lower growth businesses. I guess it doesn't matter so much, since the stock is cheap and the telematics business obviously is large and growing.

    Nevertheless, it does give the appearance that management may not be sufficiently focused on the telematics business. That does matter. The CEO certainly seems focused on the right things in this interview. But this is the same CEO who bought the car repair garages a few years ago. It's not a show stopper, but it does reduce my comfort level a bit.
    Nov 18, 2014. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering In China Will Be An Arduous Task For Guess [View article]
    Asia as a whole makes up ~14% of GES's revenue. Of their 501 Asian stores, only ~14% of those are outside South Korea. Not all of that is China, but even if it was, that would give a reasonable estimate of China revenues of 2% of GES's total revenues.

    So, why should a GES shareholder seriously worry about something so insignificant to the company? The shares are in pretty deep value territory here with a 4% dividend, lots of cash to weather any hard times... Could something go wrong? Sure, but I don't think it's likely to be China.
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone Is Possibly The Most Misunderstood Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I use it for modern Greek, a significantly more complex/difficult language than English and most European languages. It works great for me. I have to say though, learning to read and write is different than learning to speak and understand. Rosetta is great for the latter, maybe less so for the former, and maybe weaker for Asian languages. I couldn't say. I can say that traditional language courses such as Coursera offers, wouldn't appeal to me. There will always be a lot of options in this space, but I think for ease of use and brand power, Rosetta Stone is in a very strong position.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone Is Possibly The Most Misunderstood Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Rosetta Stone can be run on Microsoft's Windows, Apple's Mac and iOS, and Google's Android. No limitation there.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone Is Possibly The Most Misunderstood Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I've used Pimsleur too. Better than some of the new apps for sure, but Rosetta Stone is still hands down the best language learning system I've tried-- for my needs.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone Is Possibly The Most Misunderstood Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I agree on all counts: the clear value, and the frustration of being an RST owner.

    Also, I'm a long-time Rosetta Stone user, and my wife and I recently tried out Duolingo and Babbel. At least for our purposes, both of those options were vastly inferior to Rosetta Stone. In the end, I think there will end up being real value in the consumer segment, but agree that E&E is the bigger opportunity.

    The other education products are growing rapidly (Fitbrains, Lexia) and E&E growth was expected to pick up in the 2nd half. Given that Q3 is the strongest quarter for E&E, those earnings could be a good catalyst.

    On the topic of seriously misunderstood stocks, this recent Pro article
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    highlighted a similar, excellent opportunity. A 65% gross margin, modestly profitable, cash-rich software/tech company trading at EV/Sales of under 0.25. Too good to be true, much like RST, in my opinion.
    Oct 13, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Excellent find and great write up. Sorry you were a bit early on the call, but it worked out great for your readers. The downside from here is so small, and the potential upside so solid, this is just a great recommendation. I have a feeling it will be my buy of the year.
    Oct 13, 2014. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMRIS: An Undervalued And Misunderstood Bet On Minimally Invasive Surgery Robotics [View article]
    Excellent article and thoughtful commentary. Thanks for your efforts.

    I've been long for about a year now. The CEO has talked for quite a while about their half billion dollar pipeline of potential sales, but it's been painfully slow to materialize. Things do seem to be picking up lately. They remind us how lumpy their bookings and revenues are (in the recent earnings call), which makes you worry that the recent pick up is an aberration. However, they did seem pretty convinced that the improvements would continue. Fingers crossed.
    Oct 7, 2014. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex's Price And Prospects Compared To Alexion [View article]
    In making your estimates here, you have assumed $0 revenue for Kalydeco monotherapy. That's over $400 million this year and should grow substantially (double?) as additional patient populations get FDA approval.

    Add that in and Vertex's value goes up, particularly for your downside scenario, which seems quite pessimistic on pricing to me.
    Aug 7, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis: Long-Term Kynamro Adverse Events May Apply To Entire ISIS 2.0 Pipeline [View article]
    A quote from the most recent Isis 10k:

    "In recent years, our scientists have improved the screening assays for our drugs, which led to the discovery of second generation antisense drugs that have generally demonstrated enhanced tolerability profiles in numerous clinical studies. For example, our drugs ISIS-TTRRx and ISIS-FXIRx are drugs we discovered through our improved screening assays. In Phase 1 studies evaluating these drugs in healthy volunteers, subjects reported approximately 65 percent fewer injection site reactions and no flu-like symptoms compared to subjects treated with KYNAMRO, an earlier second generation drug."

    Reduced injection site reactions and the absence of flu-like symptoms suggest greatly reduced immunogenicity in later generation 2 drugs from Isis.

    Additional facts:
    --Most (all?) lipid modifying drugs are associated with liver adverse events, including the statins (lipitor). Those issues are likely to be Kynamro specific.
    --Generation 2.5 drugs from Isis are in the clinic too. With greater potency & lower doses, plus different chemistry, any generation 2 problems should be gone.

    Market Doc: I assume you agree that these facts address most of your concerns and you will be closing your short position ASAP...
    right?
    Jun 26, 2014. 08:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CYREN: New Products Launched This Year Should Transform The Company [View article]
    If I remember right, from reading one of their recent reports, their lenders are requiring them to raise $5 million by the fall. That cash should last them through to profitability, assuming things go as expected. But concerns about that dilution may be holding the stock back for now.
    May 19, 2014. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam - Will It Deliver RNAi? [View article]
    If Novartis wanted "the best delivery technology", they could have found enough coins under their sofa cushions to buy TKMR or ARWR. The fact that Novartis wasn't interested suggests that there's a real problem with delivery of these molecules to non-liver tissue. I'm not saying it won't get solved, but if it was solved or obviously solvable I don't believe Novartis would have given up already.
    Apr 23, 2014. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Those weight watcher's meals you see on the supermarket shelf... those are not sold by WTW. Those are sold by Heinz (WTW's former owner) and WTW gets $0 from it. The fact that the original author seems unaware of this seriously calls into question his due diligence, in my opinion.

    Comments on WTW and the value of brands: Blockbuster and Kodak were taken down by major upheaval/elimination of their respective industries. (Sorry, but hotmail was never a dominant brand.) If you believe that the weight loss industry is going the way of VCR's and film cameras, then WTW would be in trouble. Personally, I don't believe that apps or activity trackers have any chance of displacing WTW in the long run. They'll take some business for a while, and ultimately end up having their own place in the market, but no way do they replace WTW's programs. Losing weight is incredibly difficult. If the only difficulty was tracking your diet and activity, we would have cured obesity long ago. Issues of lifestyle, discipline, support, and even peer pressure make weight loss one of the most difficult problems many people ever deal with. Weight watchers can deal with those issues. I don't think an app or a fitbit ever could.

    If you're a trader, being early is the same as being wrong. I think that's what's happened to a lot of investors in WTW recently. They bought into the value story, but they got in too early and the stock continued to drop. Based on that, they became convinced that they were wrong. "WTW isn't a value," they've decided, "it's a value trap." But if you are a value investor, you have to get used to being early and feeling wrong. It comes with the territory, unfortunately.

    As for WTW, fundamentally I think the value story is intact. I don't know if things turn up this quarter or a year from now, but I will be very surprised if WTW ends up being a value trap.
    Apr 9, 2014. 04:50 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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