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Seppo Sahrakorpi

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  • Alcatel-Lucent jumps on new Nokia merger report [View news story]
    @BB It is a French company after all, so what did you expect :)
    Dec 25, 2014. 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Yesterday I had both BUY and SELL signals. Today solid BUY. So I am again in @$65.01, including 5% trailing stop loss.

    Still working on the less aggressive parameters... :)
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Got a solid SELL signal. I am out at @$59.59, at quite a good loss...

    Onwards to the next trade :)
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Boy, there is blood on the streets...

    My SELL signal is getting close, i.e. indicating that it is time to call it quits even according to my aggressive parametrization that optimizes long term profits (by riding smaller bumps instead of playing it safe). If this carnage continues for day or two more, I am pretty sure I will get my SELL signal.

    But this trading based on long term statistics (maximizing cumulative profits in the long term) is quite gut wrenching. So I am now again working on trying to find a parametrization with reasonable/moderate (i.e. smaller than with the aggressive model) profits, but better (predictive) downside protection. Less money in the long run / money left on the table, but better sleep every night :)
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphones Drag Down Lenovo [View article]
    I can pull a quote on Google for LNVGY.

    Also, Fidelity shows it w/ LNVGY ticker in my portfolio.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Butterfly Effect: Advanced Cell Technology Becomes Ocata Therapeutics (OCAT) [View article]
    Fidelity now says that OCAT is trading at pink sheets, latest price $7.08.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Butterfly Effect: Advanced Cell Technology Becomes Ocata Therapeutics (OCAT) [View article]
    What's the new ticker? Fidelity has no info in this. Just showing $0.0 as value...
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Yes. I simply did not want to take the losses, given that I am thinking this event to be a short glitch...we'll see. So I am letting this failed trade ride.

    My signal was solidly BUY until early afternoon, and then moved away from BUY to neutral. As the drop started, I actually removed my -5% trailing stop loss safety valve (which in hindsight was stupid) since I thought this would be a limited drop.

    Now, even after this massive drop, I have not yet received a SELL signal for this trade. My very aggressive parametrization (i.e. if one uses the model w/o the trailing stop loss safety valve), that optimizes very long term returns, will pretty much only give you a SELL signal if it predicts a long term systematic downtrend. Like weeks or months of backwardation conditions...

    The idea is that most drops are short term, so it is better to ride them than take the losses. And all the modelling that I have done enforces this approach...but damn it is nerve wrecking to witness these drops...

    I am now waiting for a new buy signal for a second independent trade to play today's havoc.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Well...that timing failed miserably :(
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries Have Added Diversity And Profits To My Portfolio [View article]
    @Robert Thanks for this and the earlier article. I put some 1/3 of my cash to TLT earlier this fall thanks to your and other's articles.

    I have quite aggressive investment strategy otherwise, so having TLT as a long term stabilizer, while collecting the div is assuring. Like you said, it is good to see something go up in one's portfolio, when S&P etc are falling...
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
    OK, I got my BUY signal. I am in at $68.68.

    Wish me luck :) ...

    PS: Sort of scary just to follow a model. I have done the numbers, I know them, I trust my work, but it is still difficult to just execute...
    Dec 11, 2014. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    LOL, the volatility of volatility :)

    I just got bumped out thanks to my trailing stop loss, just after few hours of posting the above.

    Anyways, now I am on the market for the BUY signal...
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
    Yeah, my modelling does not look into anything outside VIX universe (no S&P indeces, etc etc). So it is limited in its predictive powers. On the other hand following all the very smart people on SA and everywhere writing about macro markets, and arguing equally well for up or down scenarios, I have difficulty putting faith in any particular approach.

    So right now my SELL signal modelling is only using parameters and data within VIX universe, if there were some indicators there for future instability (i.e. indicating a sell before such an instability). As I said before, doing this w/o being too cautious and leaving money on the table, is still work in progress. But as we discussed above, my model works pretty well for many situations, but can not avoid all cliffs.

    So, at the moment, for exciting a trade in my SVXY trading, I am using my SELL signals, in combination with logical _or_ of simple 5% trailing stop loss as a safety valve. 5% seems to balance out well enough limiting the downside risk, while not having to trade in and out too much. The exact trailing stop loss value is still work in progress in my modelling though...

    The bottom line for me is that with all this (on-going) work, I am finally feeling comfortable trading SVXY. My long term numbers are solid :)
    Dec 8, 2014. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Trades For 370 Years Of Earnings, Jack Ma Thinks It Might Not Be Here In 20 [View article]
    This is just anecdotal, but the first sign (for me personally as a Amazon customer) of margins tightening at Amazon came last summer when they dropped Free Shipping in Europe outside UK. Earlier you could ship items from Amazon UK to e.g. Finland for free if you were above the usual total price criteria (I live in Canada, but used to use Amazon UK to ship gifts to Finland thanks to this). Nowadays Free Shipping is only available within UK.

    Second incident happened just this week. I have always used Free Shipping and in reality the items have been processed very quickly. So the trick was that even though one did not pay for quicker processing and shipping, Amazon would still have the capacity to deliver. Now, I ordered something several days ago using again Free Shipping (processed by Amazon itself), and the items have not shipped yet. I think it is five days now. This is is the first time this has happened.

    The point being that even in the middle of last Xmas' buying frenzy my trick worked and Free Shipping items shipped quickly. But it looks like that Amazon might be indeed tightening the margins, and as a result the free service is not good as it used to be...
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
    My model has two different signals, BUY and SELL. Both are parametrized independently. Thus, my model will tell you when to buy, and then one would just wait until a sell signal, sell, and then wait for a buy signal again.

    Even my current very aggressive (maximizing total profits over the long term) signals would have avoided 08/09/2007, and 10/15/2008. That is, you would have gotten a SELL signal before these events, so you would have been waiting in sidelines.

    The 02/27/2007 drop is something that my aggressive signals would not have avoided. You get the SELL signal only after the fact.

    I have been looking into 02/27/2007 a lot, and I have not been able to avoid it w/o having extremely sensitive (and too cautious) parameters. It looks to me that this event came completely out of the blue, and there was no warning signs whatsoever. At least within anything that I am able to model at the moment.

    The latter two drops are much easier to avoid in my modelling, there is warning signs in the air in 2007-08 in general constantly. My signals e.g. would have told you to exit on 09/16/2008 and only return on 12/12/2008, and thus completely avoid the slow and steady death slide from around SVXY $15 to around SVXY $3.4...
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment