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Seppo Sahrakorpi  

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  • Sale Of HERE Should Open New Doors For Nokia [View article]
    This is Finland:
    http://bit.ly/1S7bTBC
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sale Of HERE Should Open New Doors For Nokia [View article]
    1)
    In the US, the 'institutional ownership' is based on adding up all mandatory 13F SEC filings. This site (Whale Wisdom) aggregates all such listings:
    http://bit.ly/UGNcca#

    So the single 'inst ownership' number you see on Nasdaq, Yahoo etc for Nokia is just a sum of all shares listed on the above site. Notably these are reporting only NYSE traded NOK shares, so that the commonly reported 'inst ownership' number for Nokia can not ever exceed 22% (or even approach 22% in practice).

    Note that the 13F form has to be filed quarterly, no later than 45 days after the end of the quarter. So currently we know for sure the inst. ownership as of 03/31/2015. The end of June situation will be available on or about August 15th, as many big players want to file at the last minute in order to avoid tipping their hand too early.

    2)
    For shares traded in Helsinki, Nokia provides the institutional ownership here:
    http://nokia.ly/1jqJD9Z

    Please note that the above only lists shares owned by 'institutions registered in Finland'. So, e.g. the NOK1V shares owned by D&C are not listed here!

    3)
    In addition to the above, Finnish securities law dictates that anyone owning more than 5% of a publicly traded company must report such ownership. In such reporting one has to take into account all shares (both NOK and NOK1V). Indeed, often such large owners, e.g. D&C in the past, own shares both in NYSE and in Helsinki. Particularly since only 22% of all Nokia shares are available in NYSE, one is pretty much forced to buy also in Helsinki if one wants to gain a substantial share of Nokia.

    4)
    So, if one wants to find out the total institutional ownership, one has to add up the 13F filings (i.e. the US/NYSE), add up the ownerships listed on Nokia's website (i.e. Helsinki SE), and then review all 'more than 5%' filings Nokia lists on its website. And carefully reconcile the last item with respect to two first ones in order to avoid double counting (e.g. D&C used to report only its NOK shares in 13F filings, but would report all shares in its 'more than 5%' filings).

    For further details, please see my old blog post here:
    http://bit.ly/1nUdbha
    Jul 26, 2015. 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sale Of HERE Should Open New Doors For Nokia [View article]
    You have to independently take into account shares in NYSE (NOK ADR), and in Helsinki Stock Exchange (NOK1V). Roughly 22% of Nokia shares are traded in NYSE, and 78% are traded in Helsinki:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The reporting criteria and mechanisms are completely different for the US and EU. The common 'inst ownership' people report is only the NYSE ownership. For shares owned in Helsinki, you need to go to Nokia's website. For details and summary adding up all shares, see this old article I wrote (the numbers are outdated, but the concept has not changed):
    http://bit.ly/1nUdbha

    The same issue applies to Nokia's short interest as well, one has to take into account the NYSE and Helsinki short interest separately. I used to report the total short interest (NYSE and Helsinki short interest combined) here on SA, but stopped doing that a while ago. For the latest report, please see here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 26, 2015. 08:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]
    Yep, there could be quite a long wait for the next opportunity. But it will come for sure.

    And even one 20% profitable trade per year is not bad for an annual yield. And in practice one is more likely to have at least 2-3 or more VIX spikes per year, i.e. opportunities to play long XIV/SVXY...
    Jul 25, 2015. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo up 8.6% following ZTE lawsuit updates [View news story]
    "...It preliminarily appears that ZTE's opposition to this motion was entirely frivolous and, in any case, interposed for purposes of delay and harassment. Accordingly, Messrs. Perry and Strauss and ZTE shall show cause, on or before August 7 2015, why they should not be sanctioned..."
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU approves Nokia's acquisition of Alcatel-Lucent [View news story]
    Suri joined Nokia Networks in 1995, and became CEO of NSN in 2009:
    http://bit.ly/1CW9bZ5
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]
    My 5% trailing stop loss was just triggered, sold SVXY at $91.27, for ~20% profit in ~two weeks.

    And now waiting for the next crisis and opportunity... :)
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]
    Sorry, I do not remember anymore about the details...but when I compared them, it indeed more or less boiled down to ETF v. ETN.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]
    @gunnlin You are not overthinking at all.

    In fact often drastic increases in volatility (drops in XIV/SVXY) happen outside regular trading hours / overnight (say something happens in Europe or China), so one wakes up to a 5-15% drop in SVXY. So in that case my stop loss will kick in but with a larger 'loss' (i.e. usually not necessarily a loss, but just a smaller profit) than 5% trailing stop loss.

    My simulations (based on volatility data since 2004) indicate that one's profits are substantially better over long term if the trailing stop loss is always executed at 'ideal' (say 5%) value, compared to 'realistic' scenario discussed above. In real life you will get both ideal trades and then some with larger drops from the top. In any case, my simulations show that no matter what, using simple trailing stop loss as a SELL signal will create substantial profits in the long term...
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]

    Yes, I always only go long SVXY.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 25% In 2 Weeks, I'm Out Of My Short Volatility Trade [View article]

    1)
    IMO, you make it sound a bit too easy regarding entering the short VIX position. Keeping in mind e.g. that your initial short VIX call (June 30th) failed:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In other words, shorting volatility is a game of chicken, where one has to be prepared and one will incur substantial losses when things do not calm down as quickly as one would have expected. Then on the other hand the upside for successful trades is also substantial. And the key is to have a strategy and insight such that the losses and profits add up to the positive side.

    Short VIX is a unique trade vehicle (and my favorite) since it (usually / most of the time) has the contango helping failed long trades to climb back to black, if one has the time and the guts to wait it out.

    2)
    Regarding exiting the position, taking 25% profits is never bad. Congrats!

    My exit strategy is slightly different, trying to recoup as much of the contango benefits as possible as well, and not try to guess the future in a sense of future volatilty (e.g. Yellen speaks, earnings season etc). So I have simple 5% trailing stop loss in place for this trade:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]

    BloombergView:

    Why Apple Is Afraid to Reveal Watch Numbers

    http://bv.ms/1JymL1I
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Greece And Volatility [View article]
    Yep, that's how it works :)

    The time to buy SVXY is when everyone (you included) is most fearful, but the numbers actually show stabilization and reversion in bacwardation. And your own assessment of the situation is that things should turn around from this point on.

    And then if you get the buy wrong, be prepared to witness substantial losses... :)
    Jul 17, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    IMO, the way to play SVXY/XIV is not to simply buy and hold, but to trade around high volatility events.

    In the very long term SVXY has substantial ups and downs, but seems to be somewhat range bound:
    http://bit.ly/1TGT3Pd

    Now, on the other hand, if one indeed buys when there is blood on the streets, and times the BUY right (VIX futures backwardation still negative but improving), one can make substantial profits quite quickly. Unless of course if things get even worse after the initial shock, in which case one's trade will fail spectacularly (in the short to mid term). But in that case we luckily have the long term contango that can lift SVXY from deep red. This vehicle is not for the faint of heart.

    On SELLing the SVXY trade position, instead of trying to guess the market and future, I have found that trailing stop loss is a simple and efficient way to take the profits. The trailing stop loss can not be too tight though, as one does not want the daily volatility of volatility to force a sale and prevent one from benefiting from future contango. In practice a ~5% trailing stop loss seems to work OK...

    Case in point, my long SVXY trade (bought at @$75.88) from last Friday is currently up ~22%:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    So the 5% trailing stop loss should give me at least ~17% profit for this trade. Unless, as it often happens, the drop in SVXY (pop in volatility/VIX) happens overnight (outside regular trading hours), reducing the profits.
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Will Be Resolved And VXX Will Tank Once More [View article]
    There is so many ways to skin the volatility cat...I am still holding my long SVXY position, bought on Friday morning at $75.88. My current strategy with SVXY is not to overanalyze the sell side. I simply have a trailing stop loss order in place (usually 5%), that allows daily fluctuations and only bails out if something a bit more drastic happens. This allows me to ride the upside (see e.g. March-June this year) with limited downside risk...
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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