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Seppo Sahrakorpi  

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  • Nokia: The Rising Value Of The Map [View article]
    People seem to forget TomTom in the excitement on the value of HERE. TomTom is indeed still available for the Germans etc, so its market cap provides some limit on the value of HERE in the bidding wars.
    May 12, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Nokia Acquisition Likely Leading To A Large Write-Off, A New Strategy Emerges [View article]
    I just realized something...

    Note that only HERE+ has the global off-line mapping option. Usually higher end phones come with HERE+ and lower tier ones with regular HERE, with (regionally) limited or even no off-line maps enabled. For example my Canadian Rogers Lumia 1020 has HERE+ and I can download all the maps globally I want and the GPS and navigation works w/o any data enabled. Great feature.
    May 9, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent +4.4%; SocGen, UBS upgrade after earnings [View news story]
    Or let's put it this way. Fundamentally Nokia has simply offered to issue 0.55 Nokia shares for each ALU share at the time of closing of the deal. These shares will be new shares, adding to Nokia's float. That's all.

    Anything else, all market cap, deal value etc etc calculations are open for discussion, and confusion depending on what kind of metrics one decides to use. And how one wants to spin the numbers.
    May 8, 2015. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent +4.4%; SocGen, UBS upgrade after earnings [View news story]
    The easiest is to simply note that your ALU shares are worth 0.55 times NOK SP at the time of closing of the deal. As pointed out by @AH below.

    Now, your calculation above takes into account ALL Nokia and ALU shares (the 6B shares number), which increases the number of outstanding shares from what is usually quoted (i.e. the float). Particularly in ALU's case the fully diluted share count is substantially higher than the float. So when you calculate your $3.26 'ALU SP' and use the diluted share count in the denominator, you get a smaller number than if you had divided the market cap by the float (which is the correct way).

    In other words, market cap is float times SP, and not fully diluted share count times SP.

    Notably e.g. when Nokia and ALU quoted the purchase price as around ~$15B, it was based on multiplying the offer SP with the fully diluted ALU sharecount, conveniently giving a larger number than if one had used the float. If they had only considered the float, the purchase price would be have been much less, around $10-11B.

    Please see this comment, and related references for further details:
    May 8, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Stock Is Heading To $8 Despite Underperforming Network Business [View article]
    Risto Siilasmaa (Nokia's Chair since 2012) is the real magician and one shrewd player here.

    First he managed to snatch Siemens' share of NSN for practically free (~$2.2B LOL), knowing that Siemens did not have anyone else to sell to, and/since Nokia smartly had control over NSN (one extra board member on NSN's board). While at the same time Suri was on overdrive fixing things at NSN (keep in mind that Suri actually did with NSN what Combes is still trying to achieve with ALU...).

    On the second round Siilasmaa manages to sell the stumbling D&S to Microsoft for $7B+, squeezing everything out of the 'we will go Android and you can kiss WP goodbye' threat. And refuses to include HERE on the deal (MSFT and Nokia could not agree on price).

    On the third round he snatches ALU basically for free, by just issuing new shares. No money changing hands. Nokia's SP does not take practically any hit, since the Nokia shareholders see the long term value in the deal, brilliant.

    On the fourth round now, he is finally selling HERE. The highest bid is ATM $3B, which is way more than what MSFT would have paid in 2013, if anything. And since he has pulled the new, irrational money to the game (Uber, FB), we might get lucky here...I am quite confident Siilasmaa will play this well too...

    The message to current ALU shareholders is that by joining Nokia you are joining a good family...
    May 8, 2015. 11:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Plays On Tap After Shares Of Nokia And Alcatel-Lucent Fall [View article]
    The (non-exclusive), owner-equivalent, mapping / HERE license is for 4 years.

    The general (non-exclusive) license for all of Nokia's IP is for 10 years.
    May 7, 2015. 10:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Stock Is Heading To $8 Despite Underperforming Network Business [View article]
    Good read, thanks.
    May 7, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: The Nokia Merger Is Increasingly At Risk, A Positive For ALU Shareholders [View article]
    Yes. Nokia's SP is up, since with these earnings it is clear that ALU is not in a position to renegotiate. And Nokia's SP then dragging ALU SP up too. The spread is 1.5%, Mr Market says it is a done deal.

    Some further quick thoughts here:
    May 7, 2015. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does UVXY Work? [View article]
    The issuer, e.g Proshares, will, as needed, from time to time, issue new shares on the fly or buy shares to adjust the SP so that it bettercorresponds to the 'index' being tracked. But in the short term, yes, supply and demand will affect the price.
    May 6, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo +12.9%; case data points to U.K. ZTE settlement [View news story]
    Excellent comment @tech, thanks. Agreed.
    May 4, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Earnings: What Happened And What Comes Next? [View article]
    And...the greed some more $NOK @ $6.50...
    May 1, 2015. 02:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Ditch Vringo On This Pop [View article]
    The 'Properties' info for the PDF says that it was created (and last modified) in June 3rd 2013...
    May 1, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Earnings: What Happened And What Comes Next? [View article]
    Excellent read @TB, thanks.

    Having read the CC last night, I think it gives the best insight and understanding what happened with the Networks. I would only add to your summary that Q1 2014 SW sales was exceptionally good, while Q1 2015 happened to be on the unusually low side, compounding the negative impression of (high margin) SW sales performance.

    Also they entered to a new long term China deal(s?) with increased upfront HW cost, and _near to the end of the quarter_. With the explicit plan that these deals will start bearing fruit in H2 2015 and onwards. And Suri was quite clear that the overall profitability over the lifetime of the deal is positive.

    In a sense, Nokia (like so many companies, e.g. CRAY) suffered here from the quarterly reporting cycle's inadequacy to describe or fit into the more longer term cycle of the business itself.

    Fear and greed, greed and fear...having slept over this, and having reviewed plenty material etc, I am very tempted to get more Nokia (or ALU, I do not know yet) on this fire sale...
    May 1, 2015. 09:53 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia shares nosedive on plunge in networks profit [View news story]
    Nokian Hakkapeliitta winter tire might be a tough one to chew, particularly the studded version.
    May 1, 2015. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's HERE Sale: Apple, Facebook, Alibaba Join List Of Potential Suitors [View article]
    Good long story here, with references to boot:
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment