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Seraphim Blentzas

 
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  • BlackBerry: Strong Buy On Plunging Sales And $4.4 Billion Loss [View article]
    nsa scandal influences German government decision to stick with BlackBerry only. http://bit.ly/1j40oH8
    Dec 22, 2013. 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Strong Buy On Plunging Sales And $4.4 Billion Loss [View article]
    The media tends to focus on only the very worst news for the company, in the worst way.
    $4.4b loss - overblown
    -either say that the company sold 1.9 million handsets or say the company lost $4.4b. the $4.4b loss takes into account that the company sold 4 million devices.
    - the adjusted loss (purely on the business it did) was under $400m which is still nothing compared to the losses Nokia was racking up before Microsoft bought it.
    - Without its cheap devices Samsung would be doing bad too (sales of high end devices plummeted at Samsung). BlackBerry just released Q5 and other low end devices which will appeal to users of the BB7 phones in developing countries.
    - this quarter BlackBerry had the worst kind of media attention possible, talk of the company collapsing when the Chinese company valued it more than gold. Instead there's a turnaround with US Government and Germany curbing the iPhone and sticking to BLACKBERRY. as long as security remains a priority BlackBerry will be a player.
    - cash equivalents up to $3.7b. even without the $1b share issue cash down by less than half a billion. a true $4.4b loss would've put the company in bankruptcy.
    - $4b of the $4.4b loss is structural changes + things that will not happen next year thanks to the foxconn deal.
    - new security technology center in Washington DC.
    - only 442th BB10 phones sold last quarter. That number can only go up, bring down the price of the devices and they will sell.
    - market share remains strong in the middle east. service revenue remains strong given drop in unit sales.
    Dec 22, 2013. 01:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Research In Nokia Existed? [View article]
    All year I've been saying Research In Motion is not done. 90% of fortune 500 companies remain committed to the company because of BB enterprise server. The playbook is approved for use by the US federal government. Nokia has made a couple releases since the last BB release but Nokia's smartphone sales are falling faster than at RIM.
    Nokia and RIM can't merge because Nokia would have to abandon windows operating system. Microsoft gives Nokia $1 billion every year for that priviledge.
    Jan 2, 2013. 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Coke As New Operating Structure In Line With Vision 2020 [View article]
    Coca Cola still lagging behind Pepsico. Pepsi sales grew 11% in developing countries. In China, Pepsi is partnered with Tingyi the largest beverage distributor in the country (1.5 times bigger than the nearest competitior).
    Coca Cola China sales grew 2% last quarter down 7% q2q.
    Coca Cola needs to diversify much like Pepsi has with gatorade and tropicana, that would enable it to widen its partnership base with beverage distributors.
    Oct 22, 2012. 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    A lot of infrastructure has to be built before China can use Nexens Canadian oil. In February 2012 Cenovus Energy was one of the first Canadian companies to send oil to China and it was using a 12,000 bpd pipeline.
    Jul 26, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kinross Is A Long-Term Winner [View article]
    Kinross Gold K is valued lower than it was before it took over Red Back Mining.
    Production cost of sales +17.7% in 2011 to under $600 comparable to Newmont, Polyus.
    Kinross wasn't the only company to have a writedown in 4Q 2011. Newmont did too in the amount of $1.6 billion.
    I also like Agnico-Eagle Mines because though it took on a writedown Meadowbank's high cost nature is dealt with.
    Favorite gold mining stock is Eldorado Gold because of its very low cash costs, and that in 2011 it realized higher profit growth than revenue growth which is rare.
    http://bit.ly/wxbEDM
    Mar 5, 2012. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp's Assets Value It At $71 Per Share [View article]
    Using that method of valuation Seabridge Gold is the most undervalued company. Even more if you factor in the low cash costs but it needs a bank to step forward with financing (like Eldorado Gold, European Goldfields got from Qatar Holdings) http://bit.ly/xcXC8o, it could also merge with another company like Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines.

    One fifth of Goldcorp's value comes from silver and the high gold to silver ratio is eventually going to come down but not at the expense of gold price. All the silver is at one mine which recently reached commercial production so expect silver to have a bigger impact on the company's income statements this year.
    Feb 16, 2012. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Needs To Stop Buying Back Shares And Buy Penn West Energy Instead [View article]
    Something unconventional is happening at Penn West, light oil production (conventional) is increasing faster than unconventional.

    First 9 months 2011 52% of output was light oil and ngl's up from 48%. At the same time revenue from light oil and ngl's was up 36% compared to just 5% for heavy oil. http://bit.ly/xdF4Uh
    Feb 13, 2012. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Disses Gold [View article]
    His whole premise is that today's economy has the same kind of problems and risk that it had since the 1960's when in fact the economy is fundamentally different. The 1990's was when the US gdp had the highest rate of growth, not much debt and the trade deficit was manageable. Capitalism worked then.
    For a more proper assessment he has to go back further to the 1930's when cash wasn't king. Companies, the perfomance of their stocks depends on there being a consumption market. When countries come close to default they implement austerity measures (minimum wage in Greece 20% lower) which affects consumer confidence and spending. Considering the West is the region in trouble and that it still fuels growth in the developing world through investment, consumption and innovation (excessive spending as is the case with medical discoveries) no economy is safe.

    When cash was king people liked gold.
    When cash wasn't king gold not only was it worth more it was the only thing that still had relative value.

    It's true that gold is more common deeper in the earth but how would that land be reclaimed ? environmental permit would be difficult to get.

    Considering the unemployment rate in the US (including people who stopped looking for work), stagnation, Europe's recession, Japan's debt, high oil prices, high food prices, geopolitical risk why would anyone have so much confidence in the stock market ? The risk is there evidenced by the volatility, bond rates.

    64% of Ron Paul's investments are mining stocks
    UBS: 22% of central banks consider gold the most important reserve asset for the next 25 years.
    Billionaires like George Soros are investing in gold like never before.
    Buy gold. A lot of it. http://bit.ly/yfKXvh
    Feb 10, 2012. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paychex Has Lost Its Dividend Luster [View article]
    thanks for replying.

    "We all know the government definition isn't the true meaning of the word. When someone stops looking for work, they no longer are "unemployed" per government stats"

    that's right, the definition hides the real unemployment rate.
    Your analysis of Paychex is great however you'll probably agree that it's not the worst stock someone could own. There are probably many others that won't match it in terms of returns.
    About Transforce (TFIFF.PK) , the dividend increase should be around 15% however it's on track for 12-15% (quarterly 20%), was looking at the wrong data when I said 40%. Further growth is conceivable given that the company will be somewhat bigger and that it now owns IE Miller which services oil fields in North Dakota where land containing shale is being developed.
    Feb 9, 2012. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paychex Has Lost Its Dividend Luster [View article]
    Paychex is up 22% the last six months and the quarterly improved a bit last quarter compared to no quarter to quarter increase during the last year. Doesn't sound like a sell.
    What do you think of Transforce (TFI) ? Annual dividend on track to be at least 40% higher than last year, that would be the first yearly dividend increase in three years. TFI is up 34.97% last six months.
    Feb 8, 2012. 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) reports global same-store sales growth of 6.7% in January. The U.S. was the best performing segment with a 7.8% increase in sales followed by the Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa region up a strong 7.3%, helped by the timing of the Chinese New Year. Shares +0.5% premarket. [View news story]
    Partly attributed to renovated stores. $1 billion spending on updating 1400 stores in Canada. (MCD) http://bit.ly/Ai55kQ
    Feb 8, 2012. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Government May Oppose A Takeover Of Research In Motion [View article]
    RIM's biggest product launch is happening this year. Saying that its older models won't be able to compete with new phones on Android is probably exaggerating RIM's situation.

    Even iOS is starting to fall behind Android in terms of growth because of all the manufacturers that have been allowed to use it. For the future there's more than enough room for more than two platforms in the industry especially when neither of them makes efficient use of bandwidth (important for developing countries) or have above average encryption security.
    Feb 5, 2012. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Government May Oppose A Takeover Of Research In Motion [View article]
    "One of the big problems we face is that while companies have "gone global", Nations, Citizens and Governments have not"

    you say that as if it's a bad thing. Being US-based is more than just symbolic. When China and the U.S. negotiate trade and say Apple is threatening to end its contract with Hon Hai Precision Industry and partners with another company in India. Doesn't that help the U.S.? Apple's patents are in the U.S., Apple's income taxes are in the U.S. It's not in Apple's interest to move its headquarters.
    There are Global lists like The Global 2000 Forbes list which ranks countries based on the number of major companies headquartered there. It's significant for a company to be associated with a country. Canada doesn't rely on RIM as much as the US relies on Apple or Australia relies on BHP Billiton but there's still a lot that Canada would lose if the company's major decisions happened in another country.
    Having BlackBerry servers in Canada is very important. All RIM had to do was have servers in India and India would have ended its dispute.
    Feb 4, 2012. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Government May Oppose A Takeover Of Research In Motion [View article]
    The future of the smartphone market lies beyond the U.S. border. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be for you to understand that RIM is not in trouble. BlackBerry is a leader in many regions including Latin America, South Africa and Indonesia. When major carriers start carrying the PlayBook and the tablet market expands in emerging markets, RIM will grow. Western Europe is not nearly as hostile towards RIM as the U.S. is.

    RIM is Canada's biggest Research and Development investor at $1 billion a year. It employs 11,000 if its over 17,000 workforce in Canada. Why would it be in Canada's interest for RIM to be foreign controlled? if the reason for selling is limited to U.S. market share then Canada would be better off risking the block. What's the worst that would happen? The company has very high intrinsic value, until tech companies with their own in-house platforms and apps become numerous there's going to be an Amazon, Vodafone that will want it. 15-20% market share in Western Europe where it is not having products blocked as is happening with Android. If the market value gets too low, go private. That's my advice.
    Not measuring up to iOS and Android in the United States doesn't necessarily put RIM in danger zone. As a device marker RIM is doing alright. In terms of platforms it still has a strong presence in the corporate market. In December RIM grew a bit.
    Feb 4, 2012. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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