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Seraphim Blentzas  

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  • The Apple Bubble Is Ready To Burst [View article]
    why would you go back to 1984 when most of the company's growth happened in the last seven years? In 2005 Apple's market capitalization was $65 billion today it's over $400 billion.
    Jan 9, 2012. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Bubble Is Ready To Burst [View article]
    I just think that Apple has its work cut out for it in the smartphone market (China recently surpassed the US as the biggest smartphone market and how's Apple doing in China?). Tablet market, it dominates that's a given but smartphones I'm not convinced. Apple's recent problems in Europe are widely known (still not as bad as Nokia where market share got cut in half in 2011). iOS is getting dangerously close to 20% in France and Germany which represents 5-10% decrease in the last year the opposite of what's happening with Android in those markets. In Germany Android is something like 3X the market share of Apple which should mean a lot considering Germany is Europe's biggest market. Germany has been a hostile place for Apple (just look up the patent ruling in favor of Motorola) so it could be a while before Apple makes up any of the share losses.

    Should've elaborated in the first sentence, the US and UK (and maybe a couple others like Australia, Canada) are the only major developed countries in which iOS is gaining market share (as far as I know, please correct me if I'm wrong). That doesn't mean iOS isn't still doing well in other markets like Japan where it is still over 30%. Just check out Apple in South Korea, not only is it far behind the leader but it isn't gaining share. China and Brazil are adding tens of millions of people to the working class every year, and iOS is not showing share growth there either as one would expect.
    Jan 9, 2012. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Bubble Is Ready To Burst [View article]
    Apple does seem a bit overvalued at over $400 a share if you consider it losing market share in Europe and most of its success limited to the USA and UK and it still has work to do in emerging markets.
    But there's still the iPad which has anywhere from 60 to 90% of the tablet market which could grow from 29 million in 2012 to a couple hundred million by 2015.
    The book value value in the article doesn't factor in cash which it could use to takeover many of its smaller competitors. There's also a lot of intangibles which give value to the company that don't really show up on the balance sheet (itunes, icloud) nokia, motorola don't have them. However Apple should be spending a lot more on research and development than it does (less than double Research in Motion).
    Jan 5, 2012. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Outlook: Silver Signaling Danger Ahead [View article]
    Should've also mentioned the gold to silver ratio which is getting close to 60. That's almost double what it was in April when it was 33. Considering demand for the precious metals remains strong and the economy hasn't recovered there's reason to think that prices are being influenced by something new maybe primary production is increasing too fast (Goldcorp's one billion ounce silver mine in Mexico). The fundamentals are still there so expect long term higher prices combined with lower gold to silver ratio.
    Dec 29, 2011. 06:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Outlook: Silver Signaling Danger Ahead [View article]
    If you're looking for short term returns as an investor, neither silver nor gold should be at the top of your list, it should be palladium (30% under 2013 Royal Bank estimate). People who buy them at relatively high prices now are thinking long term, like 1 year or more and probably also taking into consideration a possible currency collapse which would make hard assets invaluable (US relies on debt sales for 40% of US spending).

    US mint silver sales were up 15% in 9M11 while gold sales were down 20% meaning there's nothing wrong with investment demand for silver. Gold is still attracting record demand from ETF's (nearly 70m oz) and central banks in Russia, Mexico, Belarus even Colombia. Before getting out of precious metals ask youself has Greece or South Korea sold any of theirs? Greece can't afford to lose asset value, central banks see low prices as an opportunity to buy more and so should you. When global debt becomes insurmountable in 2013 precious metals will become invaluable since central bank buying will skyrocket.
    Dec 29, 2011. 06:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears (SHLD) will close 100-120 Kmart and Sears stores, and will take Q4 charges of $1.6B-2.4B. Quarter-to-date comparable sales are off 5.2%. "Given our performance and the difficult economic environment, especially for big-ticket items, we intend to implement a series of actions to reduce on-going expenses, adjust our asset base, and accelerate the transformation of our business model." (PR)  [View news story]
    At least they finally took over Sears Canada. BUT Target is now opening over 100 stores in Canada in 2012 and Sears could be in trouble in Canada too because up until now they had relatively little competition with the bankruptcy of Eatons and The Bay, though The Bay survived it was made a smaller company. What about Sears Mexico? They sold out to Carlos Slim in 2007.
    Dec 28, 2011. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation [View article]
    You make it sound as if it's just the 20-30's generation. When the 40-50's reach 65 the new 20-30's generation (currenty 12-20) will also be crowded out since I don't think the west is doing a stellar job of preparing any new generation for life after high school. The world economy is still changing at a rapid pace making it next to impossible for any new generation to prepare for the furture. Many of the mid 20's of today thought that biological sciences was the future and so they prepared themselves accordingly , they were right but in the wrong way; biology degrees are almost as common as high school diplomas in some places (ok maybe not but it's close) and that makes them less useful. Development in India, Brazil, China and their roles in the world economy strengthening is shifting jobs over to manufacturing and the west HAS NOT prepared itself for that. Jobs that used to be considered outdated are back in demand (especially engineering and geology). That's why jobs prepared for at colleges are getting their graduates in positions faster than universities. Don't judge the book by its cover, jobs in the energy industry can be just as rewarding and not necessarily more stressful than doctors and lawyers.
    I still consider the 20-30's generation of today as having some advantages over other generations. They are the ones that graduated around the turn of the millenium when popular culture, lifestyle, technology, even careers changed most dramatically in the last 50 years. That gives them a unique perspective that all generations will eventually come to value.
    Dec 28, 2011. 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    liquidation suggests nothing went right for the company (considering it has no debt problem). not true: released bb7 products (sales of which were seen as healthy by the royal bank of Canada) bb7 is 40% faster than bb6 and twice as fast as bb5. latest quarter bb sales near record high of 14.1m. earnings outlook is no worse than Nokia or Motorola but could actually be better considering the high end phones are proving popular in markets like Indonesia. 2/3 revenue comes from outside the US so positive outlook for the company there has to be taken into consideration. has not fallen behind any company (by much) in the corporate market and still has yet to introduce bb10 qnx phones.
    apple and google have pulled ahead over the last two years but rim has not fallen behind any of the other companies, all of which are valued much higher especially on a p/e ratio basis (the 5 year net present value calculation is great to discuss but apply it to the other companies first and you'll find that it's an unfair metric to use to value Rim).
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    the .51 includes $400m loss from tablets so smartphones did ok (better than Nokia worth twice as much).
    "the product they release will be three years behind the market"
    how do you know? QNX will probably have much improved resolution (better than iphone), seemless zooming and scrolling. BB7 os is 40% faster than bb6 bb10 would at least match what the other companies are offering.
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    14.1 million (ties company record) in the 3rd compared to 10.6 million blackberrys in the 2nd is less phones ? Don't forget that the US becoming an increasingly smaller share of the global smartphone market and Rim is doing great abroad.
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    The article presents a case based on Rim being liquidated and people think that's fair. They have yet to report a loss in any quarter (unlike Nokia with a 21X p/e ratio going on 3rd straight losing quarter) have patents which $200B google is suffering from not having (HTC on verge of getting some android products kept out of US because google doesn't have certain patents), Nokia doesn't even have its own viable operating system while Rim could have 2 within a year, Rim's Belagio phones (expensive = higher margins) gaining popularity in developing countries, subscribers up 35% in 2011, 64% of revenue from outside the USA but for some reason its entire future depends on its performance in the American market? 3X price to earnings ratio is a hard to sell but Nokia 21X is tolerable? motorola 39cents per share is ok but Rim 51 cents is horrible, LG and Motorola losing the same market share in the USA as Rim in the July to September period but no criticism.

    Apple and Google may be better positioned for the future (right now) than Rim but there's nothing fundamentally wrong with Rim's products to suggest the company is about to fold. It doesn't have debt problems, countinues to have strong market share globally and still has a piece of the US pie including a near tie with Apple in the corporate market (no other company comes close). apps aren't a problem anymore either because rim allows Androids apps on its own (unlike google and apple though users start out with only essential apps helping battery life).
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    Rim's current market valuation assumes the worst and doesn't take qnx into consideration at all (without qnx the company would not be worth less, don't listen to pessimists Motorola and Nokia have nothing more to offer than Rim). Earnings are a big issue for a lot of smartphone companies, considering Rim's 51c per share earnings takes into considering $400 million in tablet loss last quarter the smartphone business did a lot better than it's given credit for.
    Company has refused takeover offers from Vodafone, Amazon. How do you expect the owners to sell if they won't even allow management changes ? Ultimately that could be great for the stock because a takeover would have to overpay to convince owners to sell and there is a lot of interest in its patents and international popularity.
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    $400m in tablet losses contributed to the .51 eps. if .51 is so bad I wonder what Motorola's 39c and Nokia's losses are. of what you'd think of iphone4s being popular despite not being profitable enough for US Cellular to refuse carrying it.
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Research In Motion Based On Valuation, Not Rumors [View article]
    horrible analysis. may as well also say that Nokia is only worth -$10/share and that google paid 10 times more for Motorola than it's worth based on earnings and realistic projects (Microsoft can't even hold onto its 5.8% oem mobile market share, that's with Rim already in double digits).

    google will not gain market share over rim in the corporate market because that would involve completely revamping their encryption security. 90% of American companies hacked in 2010 and the trouble Rim had getting its product in India and Saudi Arabia (while Apple and Google didn't have any) proves they are committed to providing their clients real encryption security.

    what about the non US market? Indonesia 4th most populous country in the world and Rim remains the dominant player with six million users.

    33% increase in blackberry sales 3rd qtr over 2nd qtr.

    google earnings fell quarter to quarter in 2011, earnings are not the only measure to use when determing a company's success, US Cellular refused to carry iphone4S because of profitabilty issues.

    RIM assets up $2B quarter on quarter (latest). don't underestimate the billions of dollars in patents, HTC is on the verge of being refused entry into the USA of some of its products because they rely on android platform and apple won an injunction against them in court.
    Dec 22, 2011. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former Obama economic advisor Christina Romer cites the 1930s and WW2 to argue the government should increase spending to spark growth. She says "aggressive monetary expansion" brought growth of 10% a year from 1933-1937, with  monetary and fiscal retrenchment then helping cause the 1937 recession.  [View news story]
    How do you spend what you don't have? There are too many US dollars already in the system, printing more/increasing debt is going to inflame the problem. What the US government has to realize is that investor confidence is not going to improve until debt goes down, the economy is not going to improve until investors regain confidence. Every country needs to be able to borrow, what the US is doing is putting at risk its future ability to borrow.

    You don't get out of the mess the same way you went into it. What the last 3 years has shown is that stimulus can't correct the problem. Going back to cheap energy (coal 4 cents a kWh compared to 23 cents a kWh for renewables, China building a major coal thermal energy plant every week) and giving big companies an incentive to manufacture in America (yes, they're already rich but there's no law that says they have to keep jobs in the America, a couple extra dollars in their pockets could mean thousands of more American workers because they are capitalists).
    Aug 14, 2011. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment