Seeking Alpha

Serenity

View as an RSS Feed
View Serenity's Comments BY TICKER:
ABX, CL, CVR, EMR, ETN, FB, GIS, GRPN, HFC, IBM, K, LMT, LNKD, MMM, MPC, MSFT, ORCL, OREX, PEP, PSX, RTN, T, VZ, WM
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Groupon Valuation Estimates Using Graham Formula [View article]
    Sorry, but Graham did not recommend this formula.
    This is a common misunderstanding.

    In fact, he used this formula to show why such overly simplistic methods are unreliable.

    For details, please see the seekingalpha article - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 26 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Even though AT&T (T) has a Reported Book Value of $17.41, it has a (negative) Tangible Book Value of -$6.48.

    So the result of a complete Benjamin Graham analysis for AT&T is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price (Serenity Number): $0.00
    NCAV Price: -$28.17
    Qualitative Result: OK / NCAV
    Graham Price: -$28.17
    Previous Close: $32.38
    Quantitative Result: 0.00%

    Also, to be checked against the Graham Number, Benjamin Graham required that a stock first have uninterrupted earnings for the previous 10 years, uninterrupted dividends for the previous 20 years, and meet 4 other Defensive criteria. In addition to the Defensive criteria, Graham also specified separate sets of criteria for Enterprising and NCAV stocks.

    Given below are the Defensive ratings for AT&T:
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    Sales: 25,486.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 35.72%
    Assets / Debt: 0.00%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 79.93%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%

    http://seekingalpha.co... gives step-by-step instructions on how to build a complete Benjamin Graham portfolio.
    Mar 13 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Communications Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Even though Verizon Communications Inc (VZ) has a Reported Book Value of $13.57, it has a (negative) Tangible Book Value of -$26.12.

    So the result of a complete Graham analysis for Verizon Communications Inc is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price (Serenity Number): $0.00
    NCAV Price: -$59.76
    Qualitative Result: OK / NCAV
    Graham Price: -$59.76
    Previous Close: $47.15
    Quantitative Result: -126.74%

    Also, to be checked against the Graham Number, Benjamin Graham required that a stock first have uninterrupted earnings for the previous 10 years, uninterrupted dividends for the previous 20 years, and meet 4 other Defensive criteria. In addition to the Defensive criteria, Graham also specified separate sets of criteria for Enterprising and NCAV stocks.

    Given below are the Defensive ratings for Verizon Communications Inc:
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    Sales: 23,170.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 39.39%
    Assets / Debt: 0.00%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 19.90%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%

    http://seekingalpha.co... gives step-by-step instructions on how to build a complete Benjamin Graham portfolio.
    Mar 9 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ghost Of Benjamin Graham Takes Revenge [View article]
    Very true.
    As Warren E. Buffett said in the Preface to Graham’s seminal book, The Intelligent Investor:

    “The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business-like investor. Follow Graham and you will profit from folly rather than participate in it.”

    Graham recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    http://seekingalpha.co... gives step-by-step instructions on how to build a complete Benjamin Graham portfolio.
    Feb 9 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Even though Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL) has a Reported Book Value of $3.80, it has a (negative) Tangible Book Value of -$3.87.

    So the result of a complete Graham analysis for Colgate-Palmolive Co is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$4.64
    NCAV Price: -$14.21
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $62.39
    Graham Result: Overvalued

    Also, to be checked against the Graham Number, Benjamin Graham required that a stock first have uninterrupted earnings for the previous 10 years, uninterrupted dividends for the previous 20 years, and meet 4 other Defensive criteria. In addition to the Defensive criteria, Graham also specified separate sets of criteria for Enterprising and NCAV stocks.

    Given below are the Defensive ratings for Colgate-Palmolive Co:
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    Sales: 3,418.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 60.97%
    Assets / Debt: 16.65%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 151.69%

    To learn how to build a complete Benjamin Graham portfolio, see http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 27 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg Company Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Benjamin Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Given below are each of the individual ratings for Graham's Defensive criteria for Kellogg Co (K):

    Sales: 2,840.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 37.36%
    Assets / Debt: 0.00%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 75.61%
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    The final Graham result for Kellogg Co is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$16.58
    NCAV Price: -$25.98
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $60.25
    Graham Result: Overvalued

    To learn more, see "How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio" - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 7 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real Story' Behind Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. [View article]
    Actually, this is what Benjamin Graham wrote about short selling:
    "selling short a too popular and therefore overvalued issue is apt to be a test not only of one’s courage and stamina but also of the depth of one’s pocketbook. The principle is sound, its successful application is not impossible, but it is distinctly not an easy art to master."

    Going short is hard for retail investors simply because it requires a lot more resources to pull off successfully. Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Given below are each of the individual ratings for Graham's Defensive criteria for Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (OREX):

    Sales: 0.69%
    Assets / Liabilities: 276.56%
    Assets / Debt: 100.00%
    Earnings Stability: 0.00%
    Dividend Record: 0.00%
    Earnings Growth: 0.00%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    The final Graham result for Orexigen Therapeutics Inc is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$12.70
    NCAV Price: $0.89
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $5.62
    Graham Result: Overvalued

    For a tutorial on how to invest as taught by Benjamin Graham, see http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 26 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Rivet & Machine: Graham And Buffett Would Have Loved This Boring Value Stock [View article]
    Well said, Robert Allan Schwartz!

    Here's what Benjamin Graham himself warned about this formula, after demonstrating that such predictive formulas don't stand up well to backtesting.

    "Warning: This material is supplied for illustrative purposes only, and because of the inescapable necessity in security analysis to project the future growth rate for most companies studied. Let the reader not be misled into thinking that such projections have any high degree of reliability or, conversely, that future prices can be counted on to behave accordingly as the prophecies are realized, surpassed, or disappointed."

    Scans of the footnote (which is missing from new editions of The Intelligent Investor) and the above warning about this formula can be seen on http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Benjamin Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Given below are each of the individual ratings for Graham's Defensive criteria for General Mills Inc (GIS):

    Sales: 3,332.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 48.03%
    Assets / Debt: 0.00%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 143.25%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%
    [a rating of 100% or more indicates that the stock clears that criteria]

    The final Graham result for GIS is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$11.96
    NCAV Price: -$16.94
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $51.44
    Graham Result: Overvalued

    For more information, see How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Rivet & Machine: Graham And Buffett Would Have Loved This Boring Value Stock [View article]
    Sorry, but Benjamin Graham never recommended using that intrinsic value formula. In fact, he used it (with backtesting) to show why such simplistic formulas were unreliable, and warned against using them.

    More details here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    For details, see How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio [View article]
    To repeat a line from the reply above:

    "The reason Graham and his followers do better than others is because they do things others don't."
    Dec 6 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Management, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Benjamin Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Given below are each of the individual ratings for Graham's Defensive criteria for Waste Management Inc (WM):
    (a rating above 100% indicates that the stock clears that criteria).

    Sales: 2,730.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 39.89%
    Assets / Debt: 0.00%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 80.00%
    Earnings Growth: 82.76%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%

    Thus, Waste Management Inc only clears the Defensive criteria for Sales and Earnings Stability, and the final Graham result for Waste Management Inc is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$0.86
    NCAV Price: -$30.85
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $44.34
    Graham Result: Overvalued

    To See How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 6 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pepsico, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Graham actually recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Given below are each of the individual ratings for Benjamin Graham's Defensive criteria for PepsiCo Inc (PEP):
    (a rating above 100% indicates that the stock clears that criteria).

    Sales: 13,098.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 54.77%
    Assets / Debt: 6.93%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 131.26%
    Graham Number / Price: 0.00%

    Thus, PepsiCo Inc clears all Defensive criteria expect those for Assets, Liabilities and EPS/Book-Value.

    The final Graham result for PepsiCo Inc is:

    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $0.00
    Enterprising Price: -$8.62
    NCAV Price: -$21.70
    Graham Grade: Ungraded
    Graham Price: $0.00
    Current Price: $84.39
    Nov 27 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Best Dividend Stocks According To Graham Principles [View article]
    Benjamin Graham recommended 3 different types of stocks for investment - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 16 criteria for finding them.

    Doing a complete Graham analysis for the above three stocks, we get:

    Helmerich & Payne Inc
    Reported Book Value: $39.26
    Tangible Book Value: $36.28
    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $68.21
    Enterprising Price: $43.54
    NCAV Price: -$9.37
    Graham Grade: Excellent / Defensive
    Graham Price: $68.21
    Current Price: $78.06

    Joy Global Inc
    Reported Book Value: $25.54
    Tangible Book Value: $5.72
    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $30.29
    Enterprising Price: $6.86
    NCAV Price: -$3.86
    Graham Grade: Good / Enterprising
    Graham Price: $6.86
    Current Price: $56.72

    National Oilwell Varco Inc
    Reported Book Value: $48.22
    Tangible Book Value: $19.50
    Defensive Price (Graham Number): $49.48
    Enterprising Price: $23.40
    NCAV Price: $10.38
    Graham Grade: Good / Enterprising
    Graham Price: $23.40
    Current Price: $83.56

    Also given below are the individual ratings for each of Graham's defensive criteria for the above three stocks (a rating above 100% indicates that the stock clears that criteria).

    Helmerich & Payne Inc
    Sales: 630.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 117.43%
    Assets / Debt: 263.63%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 100.00%
    Earnings Growth: 518.08%

    Joy Global Inc
    Sales: 1,132.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 88.61%
    Assets / Debt: 105.25%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 55.00%
    Earnings Growth: 630.26%

    National Oilwell Varco Inc
    Sales: 4,008.00%
    Assets / Liabilities: 138.77%
    Assets / Debt: 318.58%
    Earnings Stability: 100.00%
    Dividend Record: 25.00%
    Earnings Growth: 515.59%
    Nov 15 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raytheon Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    To be checked against the Graham Number, Benjamin Graham required that a stock first have uninterrupted earnings for the previous 10 years, uninterrupted dividends for the previous 20 years, and meet 4 other Defensive criteria.

    And in addition to the criteria for Defensive stocks, Graham also specified separate sets of criteria for Enterprising and NCAV stocks - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 15 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
292 Comments
108 Likes