Comments on Serge Hagopian's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/serge-hagopian/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-686210 686210 Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:01:38 -0400
You're still an idiot. I believe I still have a $1000 bet with Maxe Paul too]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-678318 678318 Tracy, everything you said is true. It makes a lot of sense to hedge > your long positions for "the day when all the suckers join in and > create an opportunity on the short side". Use stops and puts or sell > calls --whatever works, but we've got to keep our eyes on the trend > to recognize a real reversal. I thought we were going to see one > about 3 weeks ago, but it didn't happen.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:13:57 -0400 Me as well, I had the same feeling: Late August, I thought the correction was coming, so I lightened up my long, but again this market failed to drop after trying over a few days.
I am long again, comforted by the solid support we saw when the market tried to go down and failed.
The strength of the rebound suggests that many Bears and Flats took the opportunity to come-in, too happy to be given a chance.

After this failed sell-off, the market's risk appetite is higher. No-one can fight it for the moment.

On Sep 15 10:26 AM optionsgirl wrote:

> Tracy, everything you said is true. It makes a lot of sense to hedge
> your long positions for "the day when all the suckers join in and
> create an opportunity on the short side". Use stops and puts or sell
> calls --whatever works, but we've got to keep our eyes on the trend
> to recognize a real reversal. I thought we were going to see one
> about 3 weeks ago, but it didn't happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-677317 677317 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:26:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-677186 677186 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 09:08:21 -0400
I have one more thing to add. The G-20 has practically said they will put the pedal to the metal in the near term. In this country, the same people who got us into this mess with low interest rates are now in complete control of the politicians. They refuse to recognize that low interest rates and easy credit are the problem. Their reputations and legacy involve solving the problem with more of what caused the problem in the first place. As long as they are boxed in a corner and unable to admit the truth, and that will be as long as they are in office, the dollar will continue to fall. Their elected lackeys, who think they run the country, cannot now admit that they wasted trillions of dollars following a flawed game plan, so they can't change either.

So all the scoundrels, Republican and Democrat, political appointee and renown economist, are together TRAPPED ON THE LOSING SIDE OF THIS TRADE. If the market drops, they will have to pump more liquidity into the market to prop it up. If a big company fails, they will have to bail it out. Otherwise they would have to admit they were wrong. The big money knows this. The rally will continue. Watch the sweat break out on Mr. B's bald head if we drop more than 10%. He'll have to reach for the drugs. We have their egotistical skins nailed to a board.

Whether or not there is a small correction to the down side. The rally will continue until the suckers join in and create an opportunity on the short side.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-677094 677094 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:33:14 -0400 Doom and Gloom once again. Just so you know I am a socialist, so i berlieve the stock market should be abolished completely and people should strive to make their respective countries better. Wall street should be demolished because it syphons off a big chunck of people's money. Having said that I have made an obscene amount f money in the last 6 months by NOT listening to people like you. I don't care how many thumbs down signs I get, but this nation wide GAMBLING GAME must end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676839 676839 You missed a few big points, > 1. First ever coordinated global stimulus. > 2. BRIC story is not only intact but stronger than ever. > 3. The USD has/is going down, all commodities and income producing > assets have/will go up. > 4. Interest rates are at rock bottom and they are not going any where > for at least another year. > 5. Cash is trash for reason no. 3 & 4. > 6. We are still down 33.3% from Oct 10, 2007. > 7. Panic is being replaced with Anger and Envy with Greed lurking > around the corner. > > How long have you been long TZA?]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 00:14:21 -0400 I'll go along with these 7 points (any of these points weight more than the poor bull-fallacy argumentation up there).

Too many people - pro ot not - missed this rally. everyday they prey for the market to go down, write articles like this one up, try to convince the rest of the world they should not be long and making money, and their anger grows as the market keeps performing. it's painful, they resist it, up to when they will capitulate, it is only a matter of time & pain magnitude.

Let's let the teachers teach, and in the meantime, enjoy the ride...



On Sep 14 10:00 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> You missed a few big points,
> 1. First ever coordinated global stimulus.
> 2. BRIC story is not only intact but stronger than ever.
> 3. The USD has/is going down, all commodities and income producing
> assets have/will go up.
> 4. Interest rates are at rock bottom and they are not going any where
> for at least another year.
> 5. Cash is trash for reason no. 3 & 4.
> 6. We are still down 33.3% from Oct 10, 2007.
> 7. Panic is being replaced with Anger and Envy with Greed lurking
> around the corner.
>
> How long have you been long TZA?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676767 676767 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 22:00:42 -0400 1. First ever coordinated global stimulus.
2. BRIC story is not only intact but stronger than ever.
3. The USD has/is going down, all commodities and income producing assets have/will go up.
4. Interest rates are at rock bottom and they are not going any where for at least another year.
5. Cash is trash for reason no. 3 & 4.
6. We are still down 33.3% from Oct 10, 2007.
7. Panic is being replaced with Anger and Envy with Greed lurking around the corner.

How long have you been long TZA?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676760 676760 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 21:47:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676755 676755 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 21:40:05 -0400
I'm not trying to be critical of the author, because his analysis of the fundamentals makes sense. It's analysis as usual that I have a problem with right now because it doesn't work. It's like trying to use your 3 HP electric bass motor to push your boat in a hurricane. Sure, it usually works, but not today bubba.

Markets do respond to the economy, except when they respond to themselves.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676729 676729 I have been in small cap stocks heavily all the way in this rally, > and I have beat the Dow & S&P by about two-fold since January > 1 of this year. I have posted nearly all the way here on SAS, and > have been shouted down by the sort of logic above all the way. This > has been, so far, the best year I have ever had in 45 years of investing, > and you are going to have a hard time convincing me this is not a > bull market. Sure, it will correct at some point, but the stocks > I invest in were definitely over-sold, and are still bouncing back. > > > I took some money off the table a couple of months ago,and the stocks > I sold continued right on up without me, so I got back in and have > not been sorry. I have some cash in reserve, but this advance seens > relentless to me. Why not enjoy the ride?]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:42:36 -0400

On Sep 14 05:02 PM redbaron wrote:

> I have been in small cap stocks heavily all the way in this rally,
> and I have beat the Dow & S&P by about two-fold since January
> 1 of this year. I have posted nearly all the way here on SAS, and
> have been shouted down by the sort of logic above all the way. This
> has been, so far, the best year I have ever had in 45 years of investing,
> and you are going to have a hard time convincing me this is not a
> bull market. Sure, it will correct at some point, but the stocks
> I invest in were definitely over-sold, and are still bouncing back.
>
>
> I took some money off the table a couple of months ago,and the stocks
> I sold continued right on up without me, so I got back in and have
> not been sorry. I have some cash in reserve, but this advance seens
> relentless to me. Why not enjoy the ride?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676728 676728 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:40:30 -0400
You want to know why the rally can continue? Given the terrible fundamentals, there's no reason for this rally to have occurred in the first place. Stocks weren't worth their March lows either. Since fundamentals didn't continue the drop in March, I'm not very receptive to a fundamental argument why the rally should end now. Yes, I know the jobs numbers stink, and without jobs in an economy that depends on 70% of its GNP coming from consumer spending, this economy is going nowhere. But I'm not arguing the rally can continue because this market is sound, I'm arguing it can continue because it has absolutely nothing to do with market fundamentals.

This rally is a casino, nothing more. The market is driven by big money fund managers who are desperate to put up some positive numbers before a second losing year in a row shuts them down. They are willing to gamble everything in a bear market because they want to survive, and their clients are out of patience. It's a safe bet for these fund managers, because either they win and save their funds, or they don't win, but they would have lost their clients anyway if they didn't try.

All I hear on the web is doom and gloom. Look at your web site today, it's downright morose. The contrarian in me tells me that we haven't topped just yet. Look at the markets' reaction to the horrible market data coming out. We struck China a body blow for the United Steel Workers (tires) and the UAW (cars), and now they have all but declared a trade war, BUT THE MARKETS WENT UP! When bad news is discounted, it is not the behavior of a market ready to come to its senses

You might say that the level of insider sellers shows something is amiss. No, really? Didn't we just agree that the fundamentals are horrible? How is more evidence of bad things going to change investor sentiment when they were bad throughout the rally? They'll just ignore the insiders like they've ignored everything else. On the other hand, maybe the insiders are selling because they need the money. Maybe they are in hock just as much as everybody else, or maybe they are gambling on the rally too.

There is a lot of liquidity being pumped into the marketplace. Unfortunately, nobody is willing to spend it. The companies are cutting costs and the individuals are worried about debt and jobs. The extra money has to go somewhere so it ends up in stocks and commodities. It happened during the Depression. How would you feel if you sat out a 300% rally? Vindicated because you were right? There are precedents for huge rallies. You know where you find them? Right after huge drops like we just experienced.

The thin volume of this rally is a trap for the bears. If the rally is going to end, where are all the sellers going to come from? They are already out of the game. There's an enormous amount of money sitting on the sidelines. Most of this money is held by small retail investors. Their retirements were hurt real bad when they went to cash. Now, they are under a unbearable strain knowing that they are the cause of their missing the rally. Every day, Joe Sidelines has to face his coworkers, a bunch of idiots who usually don't know squat about the market, but who are bragging about making money while Joe thinks about how he is going to have to work into his 70s. How long do you think people like this can hold out? If they reenter, they will be long because they can't go short in a 401k or long is all they know. There is a tremendous amount of investors ready to join the tug of war on the buy side even though the game is being played on the edge of a cliff.

I grant the fundamentals are as menacing as they can get, but that's not the issue (yet).

Smiddywesson]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676698 676698 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:38:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676666 676666 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:44:13 -0400
You can get a 2:1 on an at-the-money play Oct (i.e. 62 - 58) put spread, and almost 6:1 betting on a 10% drop with a 57-54 spread, with decent trading volume.

I'd appreciate your input...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676611 676611 Why if only one argument is correct? What if the market was really > oversold in March. What if the health plan passes and people like > it, what if a few companies start hiring and people slowly start > to buy again, then momentum starts to build and we reach 11,000 on > the DOW by years' end? Why can't that happen? Do you really believe > that the planet has less resources or less consumers?]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:20:17 -0400 This does not have the ring for a Consumer galloping to spend money. The fact is the consumer is wiped out.

Then the dollar is debasing wiping out the increase in stock market value as it buys less.

The biggest Swiss wealth management firm that controls 27% of offshore assets advising a sell of all US stock postions.

Insider sell trading at a record high.

There are indicators here bear or bull that are facts. For those who rode the wave, its a good time to watch the sunset.



On Sep 14 05:56 PM dracula99 wrote:

> Why if only one argument is correct? What if the market was really
> oversold in March. What if the health plan passes and people like
> it, what if a few companies start hiring and people slowly start
> to buy again, then momentum starts to build and we reach 11,000 on
> the DOW by years' end? Why can't that happen? Do you really believe
> that the planet has less resources or less consumers?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676574 676574 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:56:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676553 676553 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:38:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676551 676551 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:37:26 -0400
I read the conclusion but it didn't conclude.

Bearish but why? The bulls are running on vapor? What are the elephant tracks telling us?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676530 676530 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:17:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161446-markets-reversion-to-the-mean-or-a-really-mean-reversion?source=feed#comment-676494 676494 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:02:34 -0400
I took some money off the table a couple of months ago,and the stocks I sold continued right on up without me, so I got back in and have not been sorry. I have some cash in reserve, but this advance seens relentless to me. Why not enjoy the ride?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160530-dvd-review-the-original-turtle-trading-rules?source=feed#comment-673482 673482 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:06:34 -0400
I've been told that Dennis system was original in its day, but is old hat now. And not real effective anymore. Sounds like Sands is pushing a basic intro to trading by revealing old "secrets."

Also, that "Trading Places" mythology for the creation of the Turtles sounds good, but I was told it was in response to CFTC rule changes limiting position sizes as a result of the Hunt Bros run at the silver market in 1979-80.

I wonder if Sands still has the WSJ ad that Dennis placed looking for prospective Turtles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-593978 593978 Elliott Wave International are a lot more pessimistic than you, and > unfortunately they are very, very good at forecasting. I want to make sure people get the full story behind your post. While EWI is indeed predicting a very dire long term outcome with the Dow going well sub 2k, they also believe that this sucker's rally will hit a higher high this year before it enters Primary 3 down (AKA the big wipe out). They know that stocks don't go straight up or straight down. They predicted this sucker's rally almost to the freaking day.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 14:48:01 -0400 > Elliott Wave International are a lot more pessimistic than you, and
> unfortunately they are very, very good at forecasting.

I want to make sure people get the full story behind your post. While EWI is indeed predicting a very dire long term outcome with the Dow going well sub 2k, they also believe that this sucker's rally will hit a higher high this year before it enters Primary 3 down (AKA the big wipe out). They know that stocks don't go straight up or straight down. They predicted this sucker's rally almost to the freaking day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146970-profiting-from-earnings-season-uncertainty?source=feed#comment-575799 575799 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:45:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147126-goldman-sachs-scandal-myth-or-reality?source=feed#comment-575723 575723 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:07:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146221-dow-6-000-part-ii?source=feed#comment-575105 575105 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:56:13 -0400
"When Wall Street decides to package it up, put a bow on it, and sell it to the public, that move is over.”"----nuff said]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-574646 574646 The only reasonable voice here is Warren Tee Smith ..step forward > Warren, u get the prize today! The only sensible investor on this > thread. Branch Rickey once said: " Wisdom is the residue of experience." > And Mr. Smith and I share a whole bunch of business cycles which > have taught us that things are never as bad as the bears think (read > P. Schiff) nor as great as the bulls believe (read A. Greenspan). > Those of you who are with Schiff are confused. You think Gold will > save you. Well my friends, Gold, more likely as not will break your > heart. I have seen it happen many times over the past 45 years. Of > course, I could be wrong. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. > Warren Buffett and his co-chair at BRKA, Charlie Munger, buy good > companies run by honest and able managers when their equity can be > bought at prices which provide a margin of safety. See (The Intelligent > Investor, by Benjamin Graham). They don't spend a great deal of time > on Macroeconomics, interest rates, the money supply etc. They just > buy keep buying hamburger when it is on sale. Those of you attracted > to trading, see head & shoulders, cups & saucers, have my > profound sympathy for your addiction. Mr. Smith and I both understand > that optimism is the enemy of rationality and being perpetually bearish > can be harmful to your financial health. Buffett has said concentrate > on what is knowable (Know·a·ble a. That may be known; capable of > being discovered, understood, or ascertained) and what is important > and waste no time predicting the future. (Unknowable) I don't know > if the Dow is going to 6,000 or ? but I believe now is as good a > time as any to seek value. You will pay a high price for certainty. > Smith and I have made good money in the past and we will continue > to abide by our long held beliefs re: investing for the long run. > Look you can't have it both ways..If the dollar is in a long term > secular downtrend, then by definition, inflation will rule. Everything > we buy from other nations will cost more. That means inflation. and > the first thing you will notice is investors running from dollars. > Before they run for metals they exchange dollars for stocks. Don't > believe me? Check out the bull run in 1967-69. This time next year, > maybe even late in 09, I would expect the same thing to happen. So > 6000? or 15000? Who knows? What I firmly believe and have experienced > is, profits await the investor prepared to take advantage of Mr. > Market. > Don't follow the crowd; think for yourself; read, read, read!]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:08:36 -0400

On Jul 03 08:36 PM nport wrote:

> The only reasonable voice here is Warren Tee Smith ..step forward
> Warren, u get the prize today! The only sensible investor on this
> thread. Branch Rickey once said: " Wisdom is the residue of experience."
> And Mr. Smith and I share a whole bunch of business cycles which
> have taught us that things are never as bad as the bears think (read
> P. Schiff) nor as great as the bulls believe (read A. Greenspan).
> Those of you who are with Schiff are confused. You think Gold will
> save you. Well my friends, Gold, more likely as not will break your
> heart. I have seen it happen many times over the past 45 years. Of
> course, I could be wrong. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
> Warren Buffett and his co-chair at BRKA, Charlie Munger, buy good
> companies run by honest and able managers when their equity can be
> bought at prices which provide a margin of safety. See (The Intelligent
> Investor, by Benjamin Graham). They don't spend a great deal of time
> on Macroeconomics, interest rates, the money supply etc. They just
> buy keep buying hamburger when it is on sale. Those of you attracted
> to trading, see head & shoulders, cups & saucers, have my
> profound sympathy for your addiction. Mr. Smith and I both understand
> that optimism is the enemy of rationality and being perpetually bearish
> can be harmful to your financial health. Buffett has said concentrate
> on what is knowable (Know·a·ble a. That may be known; capable of
> being discovered, understood, or ascertained) and what is important
> and waste no time predicting the future. (Unknowable) I don't know
> if the Dow is going to 6,000 or ? but I believe now is as good a
> time as any to seek value. You will pay a high price for certainty.
> Smith and I have made good money in the past and we will continue
> to abide by our long held beliefs re: investing for the long run.
> Look you can't have it both ways..If the dollar is in a long term
> secular downtrend, then by definition, inflation will rule. Everything
> we buy from other nations will cost more. That means inflation. and
> the first thing you will notice is investors running from dollars.
> Before they run for metals they exchange dollars for stocks. Don't
> believe me? Check out the bull run in 1967-69. This time next year,
> maybe even late in 09, I would expect the same thing to happen. So
> 6000? or 15000? Who knows? What I firmly believe and have experienced
> is, profits await the investor prepared to take advantage of Mr.
> Market.
> Don't follow the crowd; think for yourself; read, read, read!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146970-profiting-from-earnings-season-uncertainty?source=feed#comment-574511 574511 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:40:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146970-profiting-from-earnings-season-uncertainty?source=feed#comment-574451 574451 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 10:57:13 -0400
I've noticed that an increasing number of companies have started to refrain from issuing forward guidance when announcing current earnings, which doesn't make life any easier regardless whether one is a "trader" or an "investor". ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-574194 574194 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 00:24:41 -0400 Over the last few months sentiment has shifted and bullish expectations --green shoots--were driving the market higher. Lately some of the numbers are worse than expected and thats driving the market lower.
Now we get the doomsday scenerios again and the build up of negative expectations. Inevitably at some point the numbers are going to be better than expected and back up we go.Ironically articles like this one are the seeds for the next rally.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-574034 574034 I disagree with his #3, depressed wages: other than govt. employees > here in Calif., employers are not forcing wage cuts, and union teachers > are accepting contracts with no wage changes. > > 4, demographic disaster: the baby boom generation is very talented > and productive, and if they have to work a few more years than intended > before they retire, that is not going to drag the econ. down, as > many are entrepreneurial and will be self-employed etc. > > 5. Catch 22 is not as bad as he makes it out to be. Most of us are > still working and paying loans, and enough people are buying up the > foreclosed real estate that banks are not frozen in place. > > > And most important, Bernanke listened to Cramer, and opened up credit > lines to unfreeze the mess, and he seems to be carefully monitoring > flows and is erring more toward inflation and away from the 1930s > Fed huge mistake of punishing America by shrinkng the money supply. > > > I may be a fool, maybe not, but this financial collapse WAS NOT ANY > DIFFERENT than previous money panics, except that more and fancier > technology was involved. Most of us are not employed in the financial > sector, we just need it to be around for us when we need loans.
> > 5 are either not not sufficient or truecauses]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 16:21:14 -0400

On Jul 04 01:46 PM redwine44 wrote:

> I disagree with his #3, depressed wages: other than govt. employees
> here in Calif., employers are not forcing wage cuts, and union teachers
> are accepting contracts with no wage changes.
>
> 4, demographic disaster: the baby boom generation is very talented
> and productive, and if they have to work a few more years than intended
> before they retire, that is not going to drag the econ. down, as
> many are entrepreneurial and will be self-employed etc.
>
> 5. Catch 22 is not as bad as he makes it out to be. Most of us are
> still working and paying loans, and enough people are buying up the
> foreclosed real estate that banks are not frozen in place.
>
>
> And most important, Bernanke listened to Cramer, and opened up credit
> lines to unfreeze the mess, and he seems to be carefully monitoring
> flows and is erring more toward inflation and away from the 1930s
> Fed huge mistake of punishing America by shrinkng the money supply.
>
>
> I may be a fool, maybe not, but this financial collapse WAS NOT ANY
> DIFFERENT than previous money panics, except that more and fancier
> technology was involved. Most of us are not employed in the financial
> sector, we just need it to be around for us when we need loans.

>
> 5 are either not not sufficient or truecauses]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-573979 573979 Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:02:59 -0400
On June 30th, China quietly announced an end to this program.

www.planbeconomics.com.../]]>