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  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    GDW1

    Thank you for the feedback. In all exampled explanations you have offered, no, I'm sorry but those could not be the cases for a variety of reasons that are supported in the numerous data points that GMCR provides to the analyst community. You are most accurate, the math is simple, but the application of the math (offered examples) is not appropriate. It is not possible or plausible that 20mm users or less 10mm, replaced their devices once. Even without the data points provided by GMCR, all anybody has to have conceptual understanding of is the distribution network and how a brewer moves through the sales channel.

    Additionally and as I stated previously and others have offered, the math is simple. So using the faulty understanding of the suggested reasoning of repurchase brewers from same consumer, why would company officials ever expect to realize a 35-40mm user base. And let us not forget the trend of user base growth which is always in decline/slowing growth. In order to believe the suggestion that same users repurchase activity impacts the user base to the extent being suggested, either Keurig is lying about their TAM and user base prospects or they are ignorant of the user base and purchase activity. Their is no argument otherwise. The facts, again: User base growth has declined from 50%, 40%, 30% 20% and now expected to be low double digits. Trend indicates will eventually show no user base growth just on the basis of the product line and consumer demographics that are consistently realized over time. Now pile on the theory being suggested that users repeat their brewer purchase. There is absolutely no logical reasoning and avoiding these facts that would ever enable a single person to believe they could reach 35mm-40mm users. So if I accept the assumptions of repurchase activity, I have to accept that GMCR officials understand and accept this assumption as well, are ignoring the user base slowing growth trend, but still forecast user base goal as stated? How, and wouldn't this be grounds for litigation? Of course it would be which is why now there is not one suit filed against the firm but a second one filed as of last week. Both claims against the company surround statements made by the company regarding its product line and its deliberate recognition of expected user base within the context of its addressable market.

    Look, to all the gentlemen in the conversation thread, my apologies if I have assumed greater understanding and for possibly leaping or recognizing the data I have in hand as being common knowledge. Sincerely I apologize. But I have to ask you all not reason or excuse serious issues without deeply considered rational. Not to beat a dead horse, but think about the retail distribution implications of repurchase actuality or even intent. There is no way the retail distribution channel becomes so vast with such repurchase activity. The consumer generally consumes from friendly/same retailer in such a scenario. Return to vendor data would also highlight this activity. Nowheres in what we can all see absent the data or within the data supports repurchase activity, to the extent being offered as a reasonable excuse, as to the 50% attrition rate of original brewers sold. It just is not there gentlemen. I appreciate the the offered reasons, but the facts do no not support the reasoning to the extent one would desire to find a possible solution for a 50% attrition rate. I'm not stating no repurchase activity occurs because it is obvious that it does as a natural rule of consumption, but it is not to the extent that would justify the factual statistics for Keurig brewer attrition.
    Jun 17, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Thank you for accepting my accuracy and qualifications while not raising awareness of your "possible" (as I attempt to broach delicately with apparent overly sensitive persons) mis categorizations of reasons for options. I would tend to agree, finding logic is predictable and congratulations for finding it...albeit late. Obviously I'm being somewhat tongue and cheek here as I recognize you still don't get it my friend. Keurig's failure to track replacement brewers is a failure to track its user base. That is offered as an option is it not. Note the period. Unless a user registers there brewer (less than 10% of users do as suggested by Consumers Report), how can they track new or original user. Is there a reason this would not have been understand prior to my offering? I should not have to explain such things. They should be commonplace.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Here is the worst part of what you gentleman are failing to recognize. Let us implement your thesis of single user buying more than 1 brewer system over time. For the love of PETE, how long will it really take to get to the company's suggested user base goal of 35-40mm users? It's been 12 years thus far, with each passing year showing sell-through numbers deteriorating and the user base possibly stalling out around low double-high single digits this year. Using the same trend and rate of deterioration, it is virtually impossible to achieve the stated goal of management isn't it. Again, with the rhetorical. But I guess that is what the Keurig Kold is there for right? Because the math doesn't work with the trend or the existing product line.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    One explanation. You are serious, you have figured that this one offered explanation that you, you have come up with through your proven illogical and faulty analysis is the one explanation that satisfies the possibility for reasoning of brewer user base? Really, you found the reasoning? Of course the abundance of illucid and illogical analysis would be emitted from the masses. That is why they are the masses and not the preferred. And it is not that I'm unwilling it is that...look some people simply can't break through to higher ceilings, the masses, not the exceptional. The masses tend to never achieve higher levels of critical thinking. Again, I never said I desired to be a teacher to those less willing to achieve. I've made no mistake, I'm not able to discolor your glasses is all. So of course, lash out as you have and likely are only capable of doing. Be more and be better than that of what you are exhibiting kindly. The ability to accept a mistake, My K-cup relevance, Keurig Kold, K2.0 acceptance/adoption... seriously my friend, seriously? But now you think, "By George I think I've got it"? Seriously. Yeah, sure you do.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Reasons for the options don't change the options. And wouldn't a broken brewer/replaced fall into tracking user base appropriately. Period indicates rhetorical. Congratulations for the exhibition of nonsensical rhetoric. A- for you sir. Can't justify a 100% score. If consistently being accurate finds myself on a pedestal, then so be it my friend, so be it.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Never suggested it should could or would be anything regarding the user base. I'm giving you the factual representation of what is. Perform any math you wish to perform if you desire to waste your time. The company has stated recently and in the past that the user base is around 20mm and since 2003 they have sold 40mm units. My ability to care for your perception of my responses would likely not prove favorable either.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Facts are not insults, they are merely recognition of others shortcomings. I don't exhibit them, you have, do and likely will continue to do so. This is the basis of perception. For example your long standing perception of what the desirability for the 2.0 would be, the lack of My K-cup relevance was and the likely strong adoption of the Keurig Kold. This are your exhibited shortcomings in analysis, not mine. Me pointing them out accurately to you is not an insult, it is a recognition of fact.

    I never said user base was a problem. Those words are words you have chosen to analyze my statements. To the contrary, I have offered what a positive spin on the statistical numerations would be? Hence the question mark. Again, you are exhibiting poor analytical capabilities. And again this is a fact, not an opinion as is proven by my words and your false characterization of my words. Please do better, that is advice that I freely offer to you my friend. Sorry if that sounded condescending but blatant misrepresentations of my verbiage is unsatisfactory when dealing with money...don't you think and shouldn't you aim to achieve better analytical perspective.

    I'm sorry but if 40mm units are sold with the purposeful business of emitting consumables purchased thereafter and only half of the user base dose so after initial brewer purchase, what needs enlightening. The numbers do not lie. It is not as if there are competing/compatible systems to render the initial user who still purchases K-cups after brewer life ends. Most every single-serve system over the last 10 years+ was a Keurig or licensed brewer system. Or have you decided, now, that other brewer systems like that of Hamilton Beach have taken that much share from Keurig in the last two years. This would be counter factual to your previously suggestive statements that downplay the relevance of such market participants. Keurig measures its user base by K-cup attachment rate. Your gross misunderstandings are your own my friend. My shortcoming in this regard is that I'm unable to enlighten you due to your apparent decisions made to misunderstand the business model.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    MarkB,

    There comes a time where I have to recognize the inability of others to analyze data correctly. With that statement I am forced to recognize your participation in such a category, as unfortunate as that may be.

    1. 40mm sold, roughly 20mm active. 5-year life cycle is no excuse for non-repurchase of system and K-cups some 12 years after commencement of product.

    2. Not slander at all, in fact Keurig will not nor has ever said that their system can eliminate all molds or bio films. Public forum. If they wished to dispute the claim they have long since been able to contact me on the subject matter. Truth is all that anybody has to do is understand the nature of water and plastic interaction over time. It is impossible for the system to not breed mold and therefore indisputable, as Keurig well understands and therefore does not deny.

    3. Insider buying in the $130s and $110s. Your point?

    4. Morgan Stanley proven to have poor timing, Susquehanna proven wrong. Maybe you desire to pour salt on their wounds, not I.

    5. Never said GMCR valuation is not more appropriate at $80. Kind of why at these levels I stated "not to worry". You're welcome to articulate your thoughts in a publication.

    6. Those who understood KOLD was a bad idea sold above $100 as indicated in previous publications. Sorry you had not realized what I articulated and what other reporting mediums contact me for personal understanding about.

    7. Better luck in the future. It is necessary to correct the erroneous position management and misguided analysis that has engaged a near 38% profit curtailment.
    Jun 16, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Continues To Emit Poor Sentiment From Analysts And Investors [View article]
    Yes, your assumptions are incorrect with regards to Coca-Cola's motives for purchasing GMCR.
    Jun 16, 2015. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beverage-Digest: PepsiCo to make craft soda play [View news story]
    Or you're just plain wrong on most of your assertions sir.
    Jun 4, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Q1 2015 Recap [View article]
    Allow me to educate you on the matter if you would. WMT does turn down free in-store demos as it does not fit their retail format. They very, very rarely participate in demos. WMT will allow demos, but the environment is not suitable for such marketing. Keurig tried some a few times over the years with no return on the investment. SodaStream did some in 2014, with a loss on the investment.

    It's been said this was a choice, the lost doors. That is what has been offered by management, but with a more knowledgeable understanding of slotting fees...I won't comment further on that.

    I'm not suggesting a reduction by 1,700 WMT doors is anything, just lending some expert knowledge on the subject matter. If you think it is a bad thing then so be it. I'm simply stating the facts: And it isn't just the 1,700 WMT doors that you continue to focus on for some reason as you are overlooking the 300+ COST, Ralph's Giant Foods, KMART, John Lewis, Macy's etc. SodaStream is in Mom's Organic, with just horrible sales in this upscale small chain on the east coast. They have also been in doctor offices in the past. I'm not sure where one can find a more dedicated office than at your physician who believes in the product so much that he is willing to retail it to his/her patients...but then again that did not work either. So, if you think WFM should carry a greater weighting in your consideration, I'm simply suggesting you might want to consider a great deal more than something so minuscule in my opinion.
    May 24, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Whirlpool Despite The Drinks Machine [View article]
    Well said Dana!
    May 24, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Keurig Kold Foreshadow For SodaStream? [View article]
    The Ultimate machine is not really for in-home use. It is for their SodaStream Professional commercial division. Probably around $400ish. Not pod based either. It's not really a factor given its positioning.
    May 22, 2015. 06:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Keurig Kold Foreshadow For SodaStream? [View article]
    I believe I have outlined those insights but if you have a specific question you'd like to offer maybe I can answer directly. I'm not familiar with a hot drinks maker?
    May 21, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Q1 2015 Recap [View article]
    Thank you sir,

    Most management teams are very pragmatic, if at first you don't succeed try another approach. With regards to demos, lumping in WMT to that subject matter is not appropriate as they do not commonly support such marketing efforts. A better inclusion would be BBBY.

    Yes, SodaStream very much decided to limit eyes in the U.S. and they did do so in efforts to "try, try again". At this stage and with results being where they are in the Americas, the screwed aspect is very limited as results are either bottoming or have bottomed. As I have also said in the past, future results will not likely be the affect of one implemented strategy change but the confluence of a variety of strategy changes including product, packaging, operational efficacy, supply lines and overall distribution...not to mention severely depressed comps.

    It doesn't matter if it be 1,700 WMT's or 400+ WFM locations nearby BBBY. I'm simply highlighting the fact that retailer name "be damned", he issue does not change as the competition by retailer proximity remains.

    What is most important consideration I believe presently is the developments surrounding SodaStream and Keurig Kold. If Kold fails to garner the sales assumed by the masses, then SodaStream can do as they please in a category they own and with the basic execution they have outlined. The stock's performance in recent weeks is indicative of this sentiment. As long as the attachment rate improves they can move as slowly or as quickly as they want their business to move and the institutional investors will admire the lack of viable competition for the category, possibly improving the multiple as well.
    May 21, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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