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Seth Golden

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  • Pessimism On SodaStream's Prospects In The Americas Market Is Overblown [View article]
    Aug 19 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Showed A Strong Q3 2014 And Emphasized A Strong Full Year Outlook [View article]
    Company has plans to roll out of 1.0 brewers over the next 12-18 months. This does not include the mini.
    Aug 18 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Hopes Coffee Costs Don't Put Share Price To Sleep [View article]
    When did GMCR raise their prices in the past for portion packs?
    Aug 17 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]

    Thank you again for your perspective and insight into some of the issues with your store operations. Not too much different from many as we visit hundreds of stores and speak with a great many in-store personnel. Some of the things we have offered to some of the logistics ETLs and TLs is to do a hard reset of the accumulator. I'm sure you are familiar with the accumulator and how it works with the creating of batches and aligns with shelf capacity.

    So here is what we offered and it has helped a lot of stores with reducing unnecessary pulls from the back room. SUB99. The SUB99 manual function essentially resets the accumulator for whatever sku you scan. Once you pull a sku and enter the quantity of 99, it automatically resets the store accumulator to 0 for that sku. Pick a department a week or bi-weekly and perform that function for each sku you find in the back room down that aisle and this will reduce the unnecessary pulls and subsequent back stock. Word to the wise, best place to start is electronics as I'm sure you guys still get "ridiculous" and unnecessary pull amounts for movies and books that won't fit on the shelf. Work your way from there! Let me know if you have any questions.

    Now with MPG areas, your ETL Logistics and TL need to identify what areas are MPG and the transition product coming in which will eventually be set by the POG team. Truth, there should not be any need to keep transition for some home department, party and stationary and seasonal in the back room. Those areas are always MPG well in advance of the transition to be set. For example: Dishes, dining, towels, bedding drapery, party supplies, stationary and school supplies. One of the ETL's needs to create the standard by which there TLs are constantly flexing areas with the new transition product coming in off the truck, not crap that they don't need from the back room that will be pulled and eventually be sent back to the back room. It's double work, makes no sense.

    So let's say you have a new towel POG transition set coming up. The aisle has already been MPG and probably many towels are on clearance right. The TL for home should be condensing that product down to one end or even use an end cap. IF THEY ARE COMMUNICATING WHAT is coming in from that new POG. So if you guys on the flow team see this transition product coming off the truck through WORKLOAD, you can simply place it all on a flat bed and that should be worked into the MPG area. Why should it be back stocked when all your are going to do is pull it in a few weeks and the shelves on the sales floor are empty or have room to be flexed with newer product? Eliminates a lot of double work and forces the dayside TLs to own their department. Now when the POG team finally goes to set the POG, most of the product is already on the floor, reducing any pulls from the back room. Accumulator isn't affected either as the initial POG is never set in the system when the transition product is sent to the floor prior to the actual POG being set. Last thing the TL has to do is make shelf labels, not terribly difficult. I hope you follow but if not feel free to direct mail me.
    Aug 16 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    No need for sarcasm sir. Just sharing information. Many times, the more information one has, the more secure they feel long term about what needs to and likely will be done over time. Therefore, holding through good and bad times isn't as uncomfortable. I remember I was down on AAPL by roughly $43 per share. But I knew all the fundamentals surrounding the business through information sharing, proprietary research and broad based resources to create an air of comfort around my position even though I was well under water for a period of time. Eventually I sold AAPL for a 26.4% profit after about 6 or 7 months, not bad. So even if someone was buying in the $70s and the stock is now down in the high $50s, some of these conversations and analytical pieces are of great comfort to them. 130 Candian stores is not a lot of stores to either turnaround, or worst case scenario abandon as part of the core earnings model. Consumer will eventually forget about the credit breach or feel drawn back to Target under the right circumstances over time and with appropriate in-store measures taken by the company. That's all we're discussing. But from Point A (today), until Point B (appropriate measures taken & sales returning to growth) many will appreciate the dialogue and analytical points of articulation outlining the state of affairs surround TGT.
    Aug 16 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    Respectfully, of course the company won't start from square one. However, I wouldn't be proposing unionization. This drives costs up across the board for a retailer. Several WMT locations across the U.S. have in fact unionized based on the sentiment displayed by Targetgrunt. Just saying.
    Aug 15 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    Sounds ominous, hopefully they can right the ship before Q4 in Canada, only 130 stores so it shouldn't prove to be too difficult with even moderate execution. Trying to look at both sides of the coin, but it doesn't look terribly promising by your account Kevin. Thank you kindly.
    Aug 15 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Green Quarter [View article]
    Actually, quite difficult consider the established leader taking a 16% stake in your company has witnessed its primary product line lose sales in the last decade to the degree that they are now back to 2003 levels. Secondly, at probably most importantly, I don't believe they will be marketing this product globally as you have offered, at least not to start. It will take years to develop a user base sufficient to send this international imo.
    Aug 15 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Puzzle Of SodaStream Accounting [View article]
    Well then it sounds like you have what you determined to be your facts. It might be prudent to invest along those determinations.
    Aug 15 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Green Quarter [View article]
    First step is to identify a distribution channel/retailer for the product. Most likely it will be BBBY. Then you have to track rate of sale to get other retailers on board. Should do well, but it will take time. IMO, at least 12 months before anything meaningful, possibly 18 months. Just depends on how much they spend to promote and market alongside adoption rate.
    Aug 14 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Green Quarter [View article]
    Just be careful with the whole Keurig Cold driving bottom line performance suggestion. A carbonation machine doesn't sell like a coffee maker. One you need, one you don't. One will show lower A&P spend next year and one will show a significant A&P spend. To know your products is to best know how to model for growth.
    Aug 14 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    If memories serves me correct, location accuracy to be green is 97.5% but I could be wrong. I can certainly see how difficult it would be to perform all the necessary logistics processes during the day, with in-stocks team and planogram team needing all their batches pulled and necessary equipment to perform their duties. Just astounding that this was not thought through to the extent that it would have been needed to for everyone to succeed.

    Regarding 4th quarter trucks, remember, there is going to be that one Gosh Awful truck that comes with about 400 repack cartons full of ornaments to sort through. Usually equates to about 5 flat beds and pallets. Make sure your ETL or TL has a plan for that truck and he/she is constantly looking at the BOL to identify repack count. Not to mention the pesky one-spot transition ughhh! I feel your pain my friend.

    Keep fighting the good fight and while it is somewhat hostile presently, it's a job in a tough economy where many are still looking for jobs or getting laid off. All you can do is the best you can do, ETL's are the one's who will have to answer to the STL and DTL at the end of the day. So keep your head low and keep trucking away my friend!
    Aug 14 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Green Quarter [View article]
    Nice perspective, thank you Dana!
    Aug 14 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    Right from the horses mouth, thank you. What's your location accuracy look like in the back room Targetgrunt? We do have many pictures of pallets still on the floor, shrunk wrapped at least, as well from many stores. I would think that they should be at least pulled to the back room until they are ready to be worked, which was alarming to me as well. I'm truly sorry for what you are experiencing and hope indeed it does get better. Given these unload times, how does the company plan to operate unloads in the 4th quarter when stores plan to have extended shopping hours? With more traffic in the 4th quarter I would think they need to move back the unload times.

    Keep your head up and as I always say, "this is just a moment in time and just like all moments, this one too shall pass".
    Aug 14 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]

    I don't really understand your thought process, so forgive me for disengaging as it seems you continue to either misread or just plain and simply don't comprehend what is stated. Just like you suggesting my firm took a couple of pictures at A Target store when we clearly stated we visit dozens of stores a week and hundreds of stores monthly. This is a chain wide issue and clearly one should recognize that we can't put hundreds of pictures in a publication. Simplistic comprehension I would think, but for some reason that has gone over your head or you are purposely being argumentative for the sake of being so.
    Aug 14 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment