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Seth Walters

 
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  • H-P guides in-line, announces more job cuts [View news story]
    Since the Fed is controlling asset prices anyway, the Fed should just promise to naked short sell any company into the ground that cuts jobs.
    There's your price stability and full employment, lol.

    Job cuts are the wide road to EPS that leads to destruction. Real leadership would be figuring out how to put their people to work effectively and earn more $. But I'm sure the management will be taking home fat bonuses for their "leadership" roles.
    May 23, 2014. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Says It's Different This Time [View article]
    The biggest socialism right now in this country is redistribution of economic opportunity from ordinary citizens to corporations via ZIRP. ZIRP allows corporations to increase EPS with cheap debt funded share buybacks and eternal "cost cutting" - which means taking money and quality of life from employees and giving it to shareholders.

    THAT is the socialism in this country. The Fed is making large assetholders the "winners" for now. Of course it is utterly unsustainable, and asset values will eventually collapse to nothing, because the middle class that is the backbone of the real productive economy is being systematically gutted to produce temporary paper gains in the stock market.
    May 17, 2014. 12:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Under Serious Threat [View article]
    There is no question whatsoever that pumping CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere means a higher average global surface temp, over time. The energy has to go somewhere if it's trapped by a greenhouse gas.

    There are many questions over what the consequences of this fact will be, exactly. Some models say Really Really Bad, some say Not So Bad.

    However, what no one takes into account is the economic cost that would be inflicted on the whole world by somehow eliminating use of fossil fuels. And economic costs ultimately equal human costs. You need to have solid GDP growth just to sustain jobs. We don't have that now WITH fossil fuel use - imagine how much worse things would be without it.

    Rough calculations I have done indicate that the impact of global warming would have to be far far far worse than almost anyone thinks to justify taking the necessary steps to avoid it. As such, we suck it up and take whatever happens and we continue onwards and upwards.

    That's not to say that we shouldn't endeavor to fund smart people who are trying to develop and discover new things to move the human race forward. We aren't doing nearly enough of that right now, the funding climate in science (all science) is pretty bad, and that simply isn't going to cut it for driving long term economic growth. But allocating any funding at all to uneconomic carbon capture technologies (which a lot of very smart people are being forced to devote time and energy into simply because that is where the grant money to keep their labs running is to be had) is really stupid.
    May 11, 2014. 03:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Overdue Major Stock-Market Selloff Is Looming [View article]
    I think the Dow is down Monday, but if its up significantly, the bear thesis is probably toast.

    Postioned: short term bearish
    May 10, 2014. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadioShack closes near all-time low, analyst says "the ship is sinking" [View news story]
    In store retail is a blatantly inferior distribution channel for almost everything except fresh food and things that you have to see if they fit (clothes and stuff). The better distribution channel is going to win out in the long run and stocks like this will be zeroes.
    May 10, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine continues offensive against rebels [View news story]
    Russia is moving some serious airpower into the Crimea. Fighters, refueling tankers... strategic bombers. Somehow, I doubt they are playing around.
    May 4, 2014. 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire energy arm to buy SNC’s AltaLink for $3.24B [View news story]
    Betting that electricity use will grow over time is probably one of the safest and most boring bets you could make.
    May 2, 2014. 12:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Says Gold Might Hit $5,000, Prudent Portfolios Have Some Gold Exposure [View article]
    $5000 gold is absurd. It was only driven close to $2000 on wild speculation, not on actual inflation. Remember that, before the massive speculation boom, gold traded at around $350-$400 in 2014 dollars for some time, 14-15 years ago. Is its inflation-adjusted fair value any higher than that? Depends what people are willing to pay, I suppose. But inflation hasn't driven it much higher. You have to really believe in future, imminent hyperinflation to want gold as a long term holding, and in that case, why not just hold equities with heavy debt (which will be wiped out in hyperinflation)? Even in Weimar Germany those who owned stocks preserved their wealth in the hyperinflation. Property rights were respected. You have to believe in worse than hyperinflation to buy gold - and in that case, gold will be very much useless.
    Apr 28, 2014. 02:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Inc. misses on revenue [View news story]
    It would be interesting to know how much of the revenue increase was driven by increased revenue transaction volume, and how much was driven by fees and rate hikes and such. It seems surprising that aggregate consumer credit card spending could be increasing by 7% year over year without that showing up in inflation, unless production is also going up by at least that much, or other categories of consumer spending are decreasing. Probably a lot of information about the health of the economy in this if someone cares to dig deeply into it.
    Apr 25, 2014. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Charter in talks to acquire 3M subscribers from Comcast [View news story]
    A cable subscriber is worth $6000? Really?
    Apr 20, 2014. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World [View article]
    Profound inefficiencies can endure for long in populations in the absence of competition. The nature of existence is that competition will always arise in time. When competition for our current political and economic systems arise, then the world will change in a meaningful way.
    Apr 2, 2014. 06:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla cuts deal to keep five N.Y. stores [View news story]
    Politicians understand that they are just like used car salesmen, and as such, they must stick together.
    Mar 30, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • King sells off following IPO [View news story]
    Candy Crush is not worth more than Star Wars, lol. This is an obvious short.
    Mar 26, 2014. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. takes key step toward Atlantic drilling, sparking debate over sea life [View news story]
    This is good news, because I am a human and not a marine mammal, and cheap energy is good for humans. :)
    Mar 1, 2014. 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Gold Go From Here? Let's Use 40 Years Of History As Our Guide [View article]
    Gold is a lot more likely to be $400 in June of 2017 than $4000. The price trends pretty well with time and tends to slowly oscillate around a constant value in inflation-adjusted dollars, and we are still definitely in "above fair value" territory. You're never going to beat inflation in the long term with gold, and you're never going to beat land.
    Feb 26, 2014. 06:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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