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Seth Walters  

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  • Berkshire takes 40M-share stake in ExxonMobil [View news story]
    Ownership of energy assets is an inflation hedge, no? Yellen = more tolerance for inflation.
    Nov 15, 2013. 03:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extended Stay higher after IPO [View news story]
    Of course they are dumping real estate assets into this market. They are well aware that the real estate market is propped up by Fed liquidity, both by depressing the mortgage rate and by making liquidity for purchases more available. Real estate will suffer a double whammy because of this when the taper happens.
    Nov 13, 2013. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Brent Futures And Stock Index Futures Are Easy To Manipulate [View article]
    BNO and USO basically trend in the same direction though, and the oil has different end markets, and its price is influenced by transport costs and local supply/demand curves. It basically just sounds like this is advice to buy BNO if it is going up and short it if it is going down, and sell all positions at the futures settlement date, since it will have to trend well until then at least. We would also expect the futures settlement date to show up as a sort of pivot point over and over again, since the price cannot trend up or down forever.
    Nov 8, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consol Energy sells West Virginia assets in $3.5B deal [View news story]
    Pretty bearish sign for coal.
    Oct 28, 2013. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Bubble's Achilles' Heel [View article]
    What is the market P/E at now? 16? 17? Wasn't it around 45 in 1999? And the Fed is literally screaming in rage that stock prices must go up, and inflating market valuation by frantic pumping of a massive bellows. The current market valuations don't matter.. nothing matters but the Fed right now. I'm not even sure that an outright recession would make stock prices fall, if the Fed increased QE in response. Yes, the party will end someday. But we're nowhere near 1999 valuations, and the Fed is still frantically pumping the bellows, so why worry?
    Oct 27, 2013. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Answer To 'Is Amazon A $500 Stock?' [View article]
    Amazon up +8.5% today on heavy volume. Ouch.

    P/E 1,276.66


    If the P/E can be 1300 it can be 13,000. It can be a million. The printing presses are going full blast and the market isn't much higher than it was in 2000. But I've learned my lesson about trying to short because of fundamental trends or because of valuations or because of various currently contained macro challenges that could blow up at any time.

    You don't short. Yellen = print enough to keep the market going up. And go up it will, until it doesn't. But it will take some big macro event to deflate companies like AMZN, and that might not come for years. Fed tapering or a credit event is about all that will bring the market down now, it will go up until one of those happens, and the valuations will soar to ever more piggish and piggish heights, and everyone will think a new economic renaissance has come.

    When that sentiment is at its peak, that's when AMZN will deflate. I've given up on shorting much of anything until it's time to short, and that won't be until the deck chairs are done being rearranged on the Titanic. Who knows, maybe the Fed will even keep us afloat long enough for someone to patch the leak.
    Oct 25, 2013. 03:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Tops Start With Champagne And End In Tears; Washington May Trigger This One [View article]
    Very sensible article overall.
    Oct 13, 2013. 02:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics [View article]
    3D printing will work great to make plastic parts. If you need something that needs to be made out of metal, or silicon wafers, I seriously doubt that it will EVER be energy efficient to add a little dot of metal at a time to build up an object (due to Newton's Law of Cooling), or that parts thereby produced would be as durable as forged parts. Robotics will absolutely take over manufacturing and even eventually knowledge based professions, and as that happens, humans will either be exterminated or put on welfare in the future. Given that the Democrats seem to be triumphing over the Republicans, the "put on welfare" scenario seems more likely to me at this time.
    Oct 10, 2013. 02:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hilsenrath: Summers withdrawal assures Fed wind-down will be slow [View news story]
    If it was a desire to avoid something blowing up he would have never been a candidate in the first place. This looks more like him giving in to people complaining about how awful he would be.
    Sep 16, 2013. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk outlines Hyperloop; Tesla wants to remove side mirrors [View news story]
    I like Musk. This is really good stuff. Also, anyone can talk. This guy has a proven record as an innovator. Profitable electric cars that people want? Check. Private space travel? Check.

    Maybe he can recruit someone to push this Hyperloop concept into being a reality. The fact that it can be built to carry automobiles is not trivial.

    Good show Elon. Better than what most of the rest of the so called innovators in this country are doing. You have my respect.
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU banks must drop €3.2T in assets for Basel III [View news story]
    Sounds like one heck of a lot of selling pressure in all liquid assets to me. 3.2T euro is about what, 5T USD? That's even bigger in scope than all of Ben's QE....
    Aug 11, 2013. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Fed cut back on stimulus in the face of "back-to-back one-handles on GDP growth"? JPMorgan slashes its estimate for (already-completed) Q2 GDP growth to 1% from 2%, but hikes its forecast for Q3 to 2.5% from 2%. A surprising decline in May wholesale inventories is behind the Q2 move, and what the bank expects will be a bounce this quarter is behind the Q3 upward revision. [View news story]
    Just think of how high the stock market will go if we get -5% GDP growth. The Fed will be printing so much then! Market can't ever go down!
    Jul 12, 2013. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Risks That Could Derail The Market Rally [View article]
    Bernanke has turned the whole market into a pump and dump. As a result capital is being allocated inefficiently, which will have permanent and painful effects on growth. QE and low rates is effectively a massive stimulus for people who happen to be in a position to list tickers on the boards, and people who are already wealthy. Allocating more wealth preferentially to those who are already wealthy just makes it harder for young people (i.e. people who aren't already rich) to get an education or get the cash to create demand/jobs. Thus, the young people will be less skilled, poorer, and less likely to produce more young people. Just like printing enough money to make everyone a trillionaire doesn't create wealth (and actually destroys it because it takes time to figure out how to reprice everything), QE will ultimately be widely understood to have been inflation of a different sort, and even more damaging to the real economic future of the U.S.

    Generations of real growth have been sacrificed on the altar of the greatest pump and dump in history.
    Jul 10, 2013. 04:10 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now A Good Time To Buy Gold? [View article]
    Now isn't a very good time to buy almost anything. Massive liquidity operations by central banks, coupled with speculators levering up to front run the liquidity operations, have driven the price of almost every single imaginable asset through the roof. 1 oz of gold still costs above 5*CPI even after the recent plunge.. and it cost below 2*CPI for some time back in the late 90s/early 2000s. Holding dollars causes your assets to be eaten away at by inflation. There isn't really anything safe to do with your money now.
    Jul 9, 2013. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]
    If the market is being deliberately kept inflated, it may not actually cost much for the people inflating it to do that. In fact, the failure of the market to sell off will just make a lot of bears throw in the towel and make it easier and easier to keep it from selling off. We've seen 100 Bn dollar companies like AMZN reach a 3,000 P/E ratio and plenty with negative earnings trade at a high value. If the manipulators are able to condition people into seeing that no news will cause a really steep plunge, they may be able to slowly unload their holdings over a period of years before it is really allowed to crash. Everyone - even people outside of the financial world - knows that the economy is crap and not getting any better. Everyone knows that what little GDP growth we've had has been on the back of unprecedented accumulation of debt, and that this accumulation is not free. Finally, it is possible that the manipulators want to keep the market high simply to offer US companies a relative capital raising advantage to the rest of the world, and that they are actually acting on the orders of the Fed to do so.
    Jul 7, 2013. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment