Seeking Alpha
  • Seth Walters
    Trades today: Long $TZA (at end of the day)- believe that relief rally is overstretched, index upside is limited, and downtrend may resume.
    11/23/12
    Reply (22)
    • Modernist: for you, is this specifically a play on small caps or just market direction in general?
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: Just market direction. I figure it's unlikely to keep violently spiking up next week, at least. But we'll see.
      11/23/12
    • grapeswhiz: "We'll see" isn't good enough for me (not saying I don't think you are right, though); I can't chance losing big $ overnight or weekend. So
      11/23/12
    • grapeswhiz: I just took two little bushels of $TZA apples off the tree today. Harvest smaller amounts frequently; I find that to work well.
      11/23/12
    • Modernist: what portion of your decision is reflective of your long-term view on the market, versus short-term view?
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: TZA is a short term trading instrument. I am expecting the markets to go lower on Monday or certainly by Tuesday. I'm not going to -
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: Stick around in the trade if I am wrong. For me, it's an asymmetric trade. I can't know what the market will do but I judge that a sharp -
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: Move down on Monday is more likely than a sharp move up. Making money over time by trading is about being right more often than wrong.
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: So I hope my informal analysis is good.
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: My fundamental view of long term market direction is down. My reasoning for that can be found in my articles, and in the fact that secular
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: bears have a habit of violent correction after long relief rallies. Also, shrinking corporate revenues and failure to address wealth
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: inequality and rising debt burden, 10% of the GDP funded by deficit spending, and crisis of investment confidence of part of CEOs means that
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: Recession/stagflation is coming. We could avoid this, but we won't. Actually, what we need is a 90% upper tax rate like what we had after
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: WWII. Wealth flows to the top over time, as the shrewd and miserly accumulate and the profligate (who drive the economy) spend it all.
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: Without the corrective mechanism of a strong progressive income tax to redistribute wealth (which to be fair was gained because of capital
      11/23/12
    • grapeswhiz: Did you just write a little article?
      11/23/12
    • Seth Walters: gains because the profligate spent (= corp revenues), then the economy will stall out and crash.
      11/23/12
    • Modernist: thanks for summarizing those articles seth. i don't play macros but i am finding it much easier to find shorts than longs.
      11/23/12
    • jjsefton: Completely agree. Short squeeze is over and tech analysis points toward violent move down. TZA & Vix about to rocket. TZA $20 a share soon
      11/24/12
    • Seth Walters: Well crap I got the index movement right but TZA is barely moving.
      11/26/12
    • Seth Walters: I exited this at 15.22, haha. 16.22 to 15.22. I've made 3 TZA trades now, 2 losses and 1 win. The win was big enough to outweigh the
      11/30/12
    • Seth Walters: Two losses so far. I need to stop gambling and wait for trend to show itself.
      11/30/12