Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Seung Kim  

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Beaten Down Norwegian Krone Is A Buy [View article]
    The Norwegian Krone (NYSE:NOK) has done pretty well over the last few years. In 2000 USDNOK was at close to 9.5 (this means you received 9.5 NOK for every 1 USD if you're unfamiliar with forex parlance). In 2008 USDNOK went below 5.0. currently it stands at 6.20 so historically NOK is still pretty strong. It seems as if the USD is going higher against most currencies as I'm guessing other central banks are waiting for the Federal Reserve to tighten first. As for the impact of the currency exchange rate on your stock's performance, I'd imagine it would depend on the elasticity of the good or service the company produces. If its a product that's sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, maybe a lower Norwegian krone would benefit the stock. Conversely, if the company produces an inelastic good such as petroleum products, I'd guess a lower krone wouldn't benefit the stock much.
    Aug 20, 2014. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Russian Ruble, But Cap Your Risk [View article]
    There are some reports that the convoy is now heading to Luhansk instead of Donetsk to avoid a confrontation with Ukrainian officials. Apparently there are journalists that are trailing the convoy and have been tweeting what they're seeing. The tweeting journalists have reported that they have been allowed to take a look inside the trucks and found humanitarian aid.

    It seems as if this convoy seems to be transporting humanitarian aid, albeit it in what seem like repainted military transports driven by current or former military personnel. However, any access into Ukraine by Russia, even if the access is to deliver humanitarian goods, raises the risk in the region as it sets a precedent for Russia to freely move into Ukrainian borders. Furthermore, it could also lead to escalation if any Russians in the convoy were to be harmed, whether due to a false flag operation or an accident.

    In my opinion, the aid received is not worth the risk of escalation, intended or not, if Russian personnel are to accompany the aid, which seems to be the stance of the Ukrainian government.
    Aug 14, 2014. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Hedge A Diversified Stock/Bond Portfolio When Interest Rates Rise [View article]
    I agree with you on the difficulty of predicting when rates will rise and don't really feel like making a prediction as I will probably look foolish in the future. I was actually pretty surprised when they started tapering as I thought they would kick the can down the road a bit further due to weak inflation numbers. That's why instead of shorting Treasuries directly, I think it's more practical to go short EURUSD as I think the probability of the Fed raising rates before the ECB is pretty high.

    Downside risk to shorting EURUSD is that that the ECB keeps inflating their balance sheet using LTROs. Without a QE program in place the ECB balance sheet continues to shrink while the Federal Reserve balance sheet will remain steady due to the long maturities of the assets of the balance sheet (albeit the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet is a bit deceiving due to the liquidity parked as excess reserves).

    Another drawback to shorting the EURUSD is that it's a difficult pair to predict because of EUR being a new type of currency. It's given headaches to lot more seasoned currency traders and I usually avoid trading EURUSD, but it seems as if its a sound trade at the moment.

    Thanks for the insight though. I appreciate well thought out comments to help me look at the markets from a different perspective.
    Aug 6, 2014. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen And Restarting Japan's Nuclear Reactors [View article]
    I'm by no means an expert on LNG, but since LNG has helped replaced some of the void created by shutting down nuclear energy in Japan, I'd imagine demand for LNG in Japan would take a hit.
    Feb 23, 2014. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment