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I am just an ordinary investor looking out for family,friends and others at the same time. I try to invest in stocks that will pay me back handsomely for holding for long periods of time. I've been trading for twelve years and have achieved many goals in life by simply keeping it simple and that... More
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  • Injecting Antares Pharma With Potential Upcoming Revenue's

    When I am sitting around with good friends and family, chit-chatting about all of the Worlds problems and how each of us could fix them in under an hours time, we end up directing our conversations towards the stock market and the news around it. One thing leads to another and before you know it, we are discussing our favorite stock, Antares Pharma(ATRS), once again.

    Just as I wrote back in November, I do believe Antares will be a powerhouse in the future. Since that article, the stock seems to be in consolidation mode, trying to digest all the newer news and is searching for new direction. It's in my strong opinion that I think I know which way the stock is about to proceed. Let me now take this time to show you what's on the very near term horizon for Antares and lets see if you have the same conclusions that I have by the time your finished reading what I have here to present today.

    Back in February, Antares got the green light from the FDA to carry forward with their once called Vibex Medi-jet, now called OTREXUP. They put a PFUDA date of 10/18/13, which is the standard ten month review. Due to management has already run a mock FDA test and it passed with flying colors, I expect to get FDA approval a lot sooner. Maybe as early as August. There is no doubt, Otexruo will be the main driver for strong revenues in the very soon future of this company. Management has already said revenues with Otrexup alone will be between 100 - 200 million and I think they are sand bagging a tad. But do not think that's all Antares has to offer. Right now we are collecting about 25-30 million in royalties from Watson(WPI), Teva (TEVA) and Daewoong on already marketed devices. It's worth noting too, that Antares just received a 750K from Pfizer (PFE) on a upfront milestone payment for an undisclosed future product that is to be shelled out sometime in 2016. Also,we should be going to market come this Summer with another Teva drug delivery product and that is the 10mg Tropin pen or T-jet for short. This device is for human growth hormone that is mainly driven toward children. No disclosed revenue figures have been put on this one but it should add to the pie immensely. The future growth does not stop there and we are just getting started. We have four more deals working with Teva that have had all their ANDA's filed and will be awaiting their turns in the batters box. I expect everyone of these newer Teva deals to come to light within three to fours years and that's being soft on the timeline. Paul Wotton, CEO of Antares, has already stated in the last Corporate Presentation that the relationship with Teva has never been stronger. It should also be noted that Teva cut out a lot of it's "wasted" bio research programs this past fall, due to company restructuring and Antares was NOT one of them. That in itself should speak loud volumes on the confidence that Teva has in Antares. Getting back to the growth story, to follow up after Otrexup is QST. This is Antares' answer to the testosterone market. Again, no revenues have been put forward on this future marketed product, but one does not have to look far to see that it's a very fast growing market. QST will have a lot of competition out there as there are many companies for testosterone gels on the market. We just have to hope that the needle-free injection device does a better job at delivering the drugs effectiveness over other methods and if it does, QST will help to grow the business in a huge way. We are not done yet. Management just revealed last week in the Cowens Healthcare Coference that we are in the works for a QS-M injection device. Some, as myself, have speculated that this is a self ministered morphine device. No future potential revenues have been put on this one as well because it's so far out there on the pipeline chart, but it's just another big piece of the pie. And finally, Mr.Wotton spoke at the Cowen HCC about 40 new drugs that could be used in our devices that are non-binary. In other words, 40 potential new products that could hit the markets very soon and help to bring in more revenues for the company.

    As you can tell, Antares is gearing up to be a powerhouse contender in the Pharma World. As of the latest filing, the company has 33 million in the bank and just raised 55 million through a stock offering back in October. With 88 million in the bank, no debt, very little cash burn, it looks as if the company is set and ready to sail the high seas with no worries at all, right? As one of my favorite ESPN commentator, Lee Corso says, "Not So Fast!!". Here lies the problem with the stock. There are still some unknowns. Like, how much cash burn will be used in the upcoming manufacturing of Otrexup? Or what is the marketing cost? How much are these 30+ sales rep's for Otrexup getting for their jobs? And I am sure there are few more unknowns as all pharma companies have them. This could be one of the many reasons the companies stock has not pushed forward yet due to the unknowns. I mean, when I last wrote an article about ATRS, back in December, we were a tad higher than today's share price of 3.70. What gives? So, who better to ask then the man himself and that would be the PR guy for Antares, Jack Howarth. In our phone conversation, I flat out asked him, "Why all the selling pressure these last few months?". He told me that he did not think it was of any great concern because through his contacts with the bigger institutions holding ATRS stock, none were selling. And in his beliefs, it was the retailers causing all the headaches for us true longs. After digesting this, I tend to agree with him. When you have an average 1 million traded share volume per day, it does not take much for the sellers to bring the price down. The same takes place for moving the stock up with buyers. High volatility is not uncommon in a sub 500 million market cap stock. Mr. Howarth also told me he was working on getting more institutional help to purchase more shares and that this would solve this problem. After our short, but much needed phone conversation, I felt much better knowing he not only understood the problem, but wanted it handled quickly being he was a 500+K share member, on the open market ,himself.

    In A Nutshell

    The company is executing a well thought out plan for the future. Revenues are not that strong as of right now, but the stars are slowly aligning. The question you have to ask yourself is, do you want to buy the stock now and wait out this process for another year before the huge revenues start to come in? Or do you want to pass this opportunity by and take a chance of missing the speculation train that could cause this stock to lift off at any given moment? My 82K shares are sitting right here waiting out the tape. Management is rock solid and have made nothing but rock solid decisions so far. I have no reason to doubt them now and I think I'll just be patient a little while longer.

    Disclosure: I am long ATRS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: I have been long ATRS stock for over a year now and have accumulated 82K shares. I also have friends and family who own a whole lot more. I do believe it's a good investment, but I always encourage you to do your own due diligence and do not take ANY Seeking Alpha Contributor's direct word for it.

    Tags: TEVA, long-ideas
    Mar 12 10:56 AM | Link | 5 Comments
  • Why Antares' Share Price Is Not Moving Up.....Yet

    (this is just my humble opinion as we all have one)

    Over the last few days I have had email after email asking "Why are we not moving up" and here is what I've responded with."If I knew the answer, I would own a home in the Caribbeans instead of renting one". LOL! But, I will give you my best guess and that is, just as I have said in the past. We are in show me mode. "Show me you can turn a profit and I'll gladly buy your stock". Many investors who have been in healthcare stocks over the years have been burnt many times over and now they have learned to wait for the BUY signals. As much as I hate to type this, we have not showed a BUY signal.....yet. (bouncing along the 200mda does not count) Also, the word on the street is we are not going to be profitable for another quarter or two, so why invest here when they can go other places searching to make a buck. In a way, I do not blame this action, and I think they will learn that they have it wrong. It also does not help one bit when you have an outfit such as Zack's, constantly calling for a SELL of ATRS. Today's investors are smarter and more prudent with their money. They want to see action and we have NOT delivered as of yet.

    Now is Shadow selling? Nope! I still hold all of my 72K shares and as I have repeatedly said, I will NOT sell until Otrexup has been on the market for one full year. So unfortunately you guys are stuck with me until late 2014 or early 2015. I will then re-access my investment at that time. If by then QST shows strong potential than I'll be here even longer. But back to the topic. Try not to get discouraged by this day-to-day movement and try to focus on a longer time outlook.(Stop rolling your eyes Rearviewforecaster) I still believe with all my passion and dedication, we still prosper very well in 2013. Here are my price predictions and I feel very confident I will nail them all.

    End of Q1 2013 $4.60
    End of Q2 2013 $5.80
    End of Q3 2013 $7.15
    End of Q4 2013 $9.20 *if Otrexup is launched at anytime during Q4,add .80-1.20

    This will not be in a straight gradual climb, but rather some up and down action along the way. I think sometime in Q2 or Q3 of 2014 we hockey stick up to $15-16 due to STRONG sales in Otrexup,Teva's working deals and sales, Watson's sales, more clarity on the OTC Pfizer drug, and maybe a new launch of a new product. All of this stated falls in line with what management has laid out and I hate to sound as a broken record,but Jack's words are holding more true by the day and that is(all together now)..."2014 will be our breakout year". Just trying to calm the waters and give my 2 bits.

    ShadowPlay

    Disclosure: I am long ATRS.

    Tags: ATRS
    Jan 07 6:44 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Following Up On Antares' Vibex MTX

    As a quick follow up from my last article,Vibex MTX has took a new direction. The Medi-jet MTX has a new name and that name is OTREXUP. The CEO of Antares (ATRS), Paul Wotton, has just said that they are going to have multiple uses for the new self injected drug. The original business model was for arthritis patients but they have now decided that there is another market for this product and that is for psoriasis treatment. There are over seven million psoriasis sufferers in the United States alone and the number continues to climb. Antares seems to think that their new self injected device will fit that growing market as well

    Filing for FDA approval for the new OTREXUP will be in three weeks, which should be the first week of January 2013. Remember, management first said this past Summer that the NDA filing would be sometime in the first half of 2013 and then recently changed it to Q1 of 2013. Now they have bumped up the NDA filling for the first week of the new year. You do not have to light a fire under this management as they seem excited and very willing to get this product out on the market. After just listening to the web call at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference, I can understand why. Antares will be the first and only company in the Untied States with a self administered product that treats RA patients with a device using the subcutaneous method, or SC MTX for short. This new news should be welcomed by investors being that the OTREXUP self injected device has blockbuster potential and will be on the market no later than Q1 of 2014. But again, do not let the date fool you. Management has constantly bumped up their timeline and I would be shocked if this product is not on the market come Q4 of 2013. I can say this because Antares is gearing up and have already hired 30 plus sales reps to accommodate the 3000 rheumetologist that are lined up to use this method of treatment for arthritis and psoriasis patients.

    Also, it is worth noting, Antares is in search of a partner for International use of their OTREXUP product. I would think,after listening for the demanding need here in the States, it should not be hard to find one.

    Disclosure: I am long ATRS.

    Tags: ATRS
    Dec 13 5:32 PM | Link | Comment!
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  • $ATRS started as a buy by Jefferies
    Dec 19, 2012
  • I see $ATRS meditating from the 3.60's-4.10's until late January. Once the Vibex MTX filing comes to light with FDA, then it pushes to $5.
    Dec 11, 2012
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