Comments on Shailendra Kumar's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/shailendra-kumar/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-276468 276468 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:13:51 -0400 we have to make progress in space research and compete with china and be the leader.our country should be innovator like build some fantastic operating system build some great use of computer and show the world we can invent.we are the greatest minds why should we be working for the world why not the world pays us the money for using our technology.
jai hind and never under estimate india]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91310-don-t-write-off-the-gold-and-commodities-bull-run?source=feed#comment-276446 276446 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:35:00 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-276442 276442 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:26:20 -0400
When I was a child in the 90s, my parents and neighbours, like most middle class babus were the embodiment of everything that used to be wrong with our country... in other words their worldview was the following:

a. The "Britishers" were best (the term applies to anyone white)

b. The people in the West, however, are morally inferior because they have lots of pre-marital sex.


With this mentality, India can never succeed because every sentence that we make begins or ends with "for a poor nation like India". In the post 2000 era, I was a young man and it took me a while to realize that my own country is the next big thing.

I fell hook, line and sinker for the "India Shining" campaign. But most of the India baiters like you didn't. You guys really loved 2004, didn't you? Because all you want to hear is that India can never be successful. But the events since then have belied you completely. You saw how India rose to height after height; you saw the arrogant Americans come to embrace India. And you hated it; because deep down you want to be a slave.

And so you take this one opportunity after four long years. The US economy suffers; India takes a few knocks and immediately you are out on your "hate India" campaign. All the bitterness of being proven wrong every day for five years is beginning to show.

Thankfully, the youth of India knows better than to fall for lying losers like you. India is not sick, but I am sick of people like you.

I suggest you see a therapist. Try this: sit in a room quietly for twenty minutes, collecting all your negative thoughts. Then rush to the bathroom and spit out violently. Turn on the sink and imagine the negative thoughts disappearing. This will help.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91310-don-t-write-off-the-gold-and-commodities-bull-run?source=feed#comment-233228 233228 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:00:55 -0400 very good article enjoyed it. Especially re wages-- SWC recent report says shortage of labor in mines-- they produce plat/paladium in Montana and these workers can shift to Oil/Gas for shale or other mines. (Long SWC.) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91310-don-t-write-off-the-gold-and-commodities-bull-run?source=feed#comment-232889 232889 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 08:00:05 -0400 The price of commodity will not fall so much in one month.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91310-don-t-write-off-the-gold-and-commodities-bull-run?source=feed#comment-232705 232705 Sun, 17 Aug 2008 20:38:16 -0400
I have to laugh when you say labor wont willingly except a lower wage. Ask the airlines and many others who are excepting less. They have NO choice. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-229114 229114 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 02:07:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-226986 226986 Sun, 10 Aug 2008 02:25:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-226608 226608 Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:23:10 -0400 First he talks about India's GDP growth, but the fact is that this growth means nothing. India may be growing at 7 or 8 percent and yet may end up in a ditch. What at the end of the day means is whether you are able to export more than you import or vice versa. Indian trade deficit is growing at 20% annum. Japanese
economy is growing at a mere 1/4th the rate of India, but it adds $150 billion to itself every year. That's what counts. The emphasis on GDP is a game for business journalists, the people who don't understand economy and know only to take notes when the real economists speak. So please forget about India's "phenomenal" GDP growth. If GDP growth alone was the criteria, I dole out another another example; even Ethiopia is growing at
8.4% this year. Does it mean that Ethiopian economy is stronger than all Europe, Japan, and US economies? Ha.

Mr. Nagesh is also wrong about the corporate tax. Their collections prove nothing. Corporates are experts in running businesses, not in predicting economic cycles or movements of the markets. Having stake in the growth, they are usually blind to what sort of economic situations lie ahead. They feel the growth will go on and on. But this is not the case. There have been busts and busts around the world and the corporates which have been oblivious to them have literally lost their businesses. In the US during 1999-2000 the tax
collections were strong, and yet the recession followed in the following year.

Mr. Nagesh's harping on whether 60% or 70% of the Indian population is dependent on agriculture shows that he is just interested in oneupmanship, and has not imbibed the spirit of the article. Would it matter much if whether 6 members or 7 of his family went hungry? Will he argue about the exact number?
The fact is that every two out of three Indians is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture, and the bigger fact is that most of them are unhappy with the state of affairs. That's what counts most.
Finally, if he thinks that the government and Indian businesses will give extra filliip to agriculture, probably he has not studied Indian agriculture. Agriculture is the last thing on anybody's mind, a reason why the problems have become so huge, so deeprooted.

I again congratulate Mr. Kumar on writing a fair assessment on the Indian Economy. He is sending out the most honest views to the world. Kudos
S. Gangadhar.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-226589 226589 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 22:59:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-225691 225691 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:52:13 -0400
I am sorry to differ from your pessimist opinion. Being an Indian I am seeing/feeling the aggressive growth of our country.

Just by simply having bird view at India you have written like "During past two years the cost of crude imports has gone up from $40 billion to approx. $100 billion - an unaffordable luxury for a poor nation like India"

You would not have included this line, if you had looked at industry growth of India.

Please be clear on the messages which you are sending to the world.

Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-225232 225232 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:36:41 -0400
thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-224914 224914 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:36:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-224874 224874 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:11:40 -0400
The Indian GDP has grown at over 9% for 4 years in a row. Even after taking into account the impact of the steep hike in crude oil prices(softened recently to $120 a barrel), and the US banking crisis, the average analyst estimates for India GDP growth are pegged at 7.5 to 8% for Fiscal 2009. The Indian economy is on pretty solid ground even when the global economy is challenged. India is partly (not completely) shielded from the weakness in the global economy by the Domestic consumption and savings growth that continue to be strong.
The Global economy, Crude oil prices, changes in business environment and political uncertainty will continue to have an impact on India’s economy just as it does to any other economy. However, the strong fundamentals of the Indian Economy and its vibrant Corporations and entrepreneurs will be the main drivers that will fuel excellent long term growth.

Now let us look at the Indian stock market in numbers. Why did the SENSEX fall by 40% from the 21000 level? At 21000 BSE was overstretched in the first place and a correction very much warranted. With the market correction, Sensex today is at 15117. The Sensex is trading at a forward PE of 15X (FY09). The historical forward PE for the Sensex is 14X. However, with the revenues and profits growing at a higher rate than in the past (pre-2003), a forward PE of 16X would be very much justified. So I expect the Sensex to be well past 16000 by April 2009. (Well past 16000 because it will start discounting FY10 earnings by that time)

Is there a key indicator that the Indian Corporate sector is still doing reasonably well? Corporate tax collections have shown a more than healthy growth of 50% in the first 4 months (Apr-Jul 09) of fiscal 2009(Rs 41,598 crore as against Rs 27,718 crore in fiscal 08). Corporations pay advance taxes based on expected earnings. The net earnings of the SENSEX 30 companies grew by 17% in Q1FY09 with revenue growth of 29% YOY. Corporations

The importance of agriculture: To put the Indian economy in perspective, the contribution of the major sectors to the Indian economy GDP is as follows: Services 53%, Industries 30%, and Agriculture 17%. Note that Agriculture, where growth has averaged around 2.5% over last several years, accounts for just 17% of GDP today and plays a limited role in overall GDP growth.
The reason agriculture is very important to India is because about 60% (70% is incorrect) population is dependent on agriculture. Hardship to 60% of the population is indeed very painful. The Indian politicians are very much aware of this challenge and will make all the noises and take dramatic (sometimes incorrect) steps to address the challenge. 60% of votes come from this population; Indian politicians need no bigger incentive to take action!

TO sum it up, I am confident that the Indian economy and the stock market will provide excellent long term growth and the current drop in stock prices is a great buying opportunity for anyone with a time horizon of over 3 years. The government and Indian businesses would do well to give an extra fillip to Agriculture to make the growth more inclusive.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-224801 224801 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 08:24:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports?source=feed#comment-224748 224748 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 07:36:49 -0400