The Religious Interpretation of Employment, Interest, and Money..
It explains the nature and causes of economic depressions.
It describes what are the necessary conditions for the occurrence of a crash and an economic depression.
It proposes a plausible alternative solution.
I develop a novel model of the yield curve.
The difference between long-term rates and short-term rates are functions of the time value of options on shorter term rates.
A normal yield curve is the one for which the long-term yields are fairly priced compared to the short-term rates.
The normal yield curve depends on the short term interest rates and on the implied volatility of interest rates.
The term differerential of interest rates can be, thus, considered as an interest rate risk premium.
The closer short-term rates are to 0% and the higher the volatility of interest rates the steeper the normal yield curve.
A steep yield curve is steeper than the normal yield curve.
An inverted yield curve is less steep than the normal yield curve.
Hence although a yield curve seems steep it can be, according to my definition, inverted. This is especially true when the short-term risk free interest rates are 0%.
Otherwise obviously, there would ever be an inverted yield curve for short-term risk free rates = 0%.
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