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gillberto on Resolution 49-1: Market Crash Security Measures for the Peace of Mind. i agree
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gillberto on Resolution 49-1: Market Crash Security Measures for the Peace of Mind. i agree
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Graham and Dodd Investor on What If you Called 411 and The Crash Answered? "Keep it simple, stupid." McDonald's ...
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Bruce Vanderveen on Bernanke's Dark Kingdom Wow, this is a little too much for me. Shalom p...
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Shalom Hamou on The [Good] Economic Conditions That Precedes a Liquidity Trap. The only index I know of is the inversion of th...
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The New Hidden Bailout.
* We know that PIMCO is heavily short of long-term bonds at a yields on 30 years US TBonds around 4.30%.
o Pimco Says Improving Economy to Steepen Yield Curve.
* A recent article says that Citi sees a double bottom on long-term yield: that is preposterous since the second bottom is not yet existent! They have to be pretty desperate.
o Treasury 30-Year Yields May Reach June High: Technical Analysis.
* The Fed make recently a strange move by proposing to make unusual reverse repo as it was buying 5-7 yars US Treasury notes causing an unusual increase of the 30 years/7 years spread.
o Fed Said to Start Talks With Dealers on Using Reverse Repos.
What do we conclude?
PIMCO, Citi and several Primary Security Dealers are short heavily on long-term bonds (8 to 30 years maturity).
This long term bonds have recently increased at a fast pace.
They are paying a hefty price to borrow them.
The Fed came in to lend them at a rate equal to the Fed Fund rate in order to bail them out.
However that will not prevent these yields to go down sharply:
The next treasury auction is on the 7 years Notes today at 1300 EDT I expect it to be very successful:
It will create an unsustainable spread between 30 Years Bonds and 7 Years Bonds, which, when resolved, will cause a sharp decrease of their yield differential without giving the opportunity for the short to buy back their losing bets.
The end result will be Irrational Exuberance, Greenspan Conundrum, an
Asset Price Bubble and ultimately The Market Crash.
The New Hidden Bailout: a Market Crash in The Making.
Disclosure: no position
Resolution 49-1: Market Crash Security Measures for the Peace of Mind.
This is my last article on Seeking Alpha and
my last published article for that matter.
I will from now on reserve my publications for my Blog.
This article is meant to be published on
Thursday, 17nth September 2009 at 1000 EDT.
More »Releasing it before that time would serve no meaningful purpose.
________
Tel Aviv, Friday, 4th September 2009 2200 IDT.
How Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke Deliberatly Created The Great Recession.
"Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own.In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities."The slowdown in economic activity, together with high interest rates, was in all likelihood the most important source of the stock market crash that followed in October.
In other words, the market crash, rather than being the cause of the Depression, as popular legend has it, was in fact largely the result of an economic slowdown and the inappropriate monetary policies that preceded it.
Of course, the stock market crash only worsened the economic situation, hurting consumer and business confidence and contributing to a still deeper downturn in 1930."
Governor Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke
Money, Gold, and the Great Depression.
At the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Economic Policy,
Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Virginia.
2nd March 2004
A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices.
Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets,the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers. A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money."
Governor Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here.
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
21st November 2002.
It is not equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money. In fat it is the exact opposite.
The necessary consequences of the monetary policy that was implemented after the crash is to decrease the marginal return on capital (long-term yields), create the Mother of the Bubbles and increase the price of minerals (Oil, Precious Metals, Base Metals...).
I have proved that Bernanke mismanaged the sub prime crisis:
Ben "Systemic Risk" Bernanke is no beginner in crashes and economic depressions he even wrote a book on th subject: Essays on the Great Depression 2000. He has expleined again and again that what he did was exactly what he knew was the contrary of what he did.
The problem of the sub-prime MBS were known already to the public at the end of 2006. It is not hard to suppose that it was known before to the Federal Reserve System.In fact several month before as that Market was not transparent to say the least.
Google Trends on "Sub Prime".
Los Angeles Times - Dec 5 2006
Independent - Mar 14 2007
Moneycontrol.com - Aug 10 2007
AboutProperty.co.uk - Nov 5 2007
Fairfield Champion - Dec 6 2007
The Australian - Jan 22 2008
Knowing that such a risk existed, according to his speeches and his book,
Bernanke should have lowered the short-term rates before December 2006.
It is only on September 18th, 2007 that Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke lowered the target fed fund rate from 5.25% by a mere 0.50% to 4.75%!
On March 5th, 2009 the 30 Years US Treasury Bond yield went as low as 4.621%. It went as low as 4.617% on September 10, 2007!
On December 11 He lowered the target for Fed Funds by ridiculous 0.25%
When on December 4th the yield on 30 Years US Treasury Bonds were 4.309%.
On January 31 he raised the target to 4.25%. When on January 23, 2008 t
he yield on the 30 Years US Treasury Bond was as low as 4.102%!!!
"Among the more important monetary-policy mistakes were
1) the failure to tighten policy during 1987-89, despite evidence of growing
inflationary pressures, a failure that contributed to the development
of the "bubble economy";
2) the apparent attempt to "prick" the stock
market bubble in 1989-91, which helped to induce an asset-price crash;
and 3) the failure to ease adequately during the 1991-94 period, as
asset prices, the banking system, and t
he economy declined precipitously.
Bernanke and Gertler (1999) argue that if the Japanese
monetary policy after 1985 had focused on stabilizing aggregate demand
and inflation, rather than being distracted by the exchange rate or
asset prices, the results would have been much better.
....
I will argue here that, to the contrary, there is much that the Bank of Japan,
in cooperation with other government agencies, could do to help promote economic recovery in Japan.
Most of my arguments will not be new to the policy board and staff of the BOJ, which of course has discussed these questions extensively.
However, their responses, when not confused or inconsistent, have generally relied on various technical or legal objections- objections which, I will argue, could be overcome if the will to do so existed."
Prof. Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke
Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?.
For presentation at the ASSA meetings,
Boston MA, .
9th January 2000
It was never relevant to Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke that average American, notably those who were reimbursing variable rate mortgages, or those who lost asstes and jobs did suffer from these strict monetary policy.
Should he have acted decisively and normalised the yield curve by lowering, according to our computation, the rates to around 1% when he knew what was happening, the sub prime mess wouldn't have occurred and the number of mortgage who defaulted would have been a fraction of what they were.
Beware I am not saying that these analysis are right, what I am saying is given his knowledge and his experience, if he wanted to avoid the Crash, which he saw coming he would have acted completly differently.
Was it the result of indecisiveness, mere stupidity or more worrisome, a carefully planed sabotage?
An Intended Mistake:
I have learned several things in my previous life as a trader:
- When you can turn to only one person or institution in order to solve a problem, they did cause it in the first place.
- When a professional make a mistake more often than not he did that on purpose.
He had means, motive, and opportunity and he did take the opportunity he is, according to US Criminal law it is sufficient to convict him beyond a reasonable doubt for a premeditated crime.
Given the precedent of Bernard Madoff he would get, given the volume of the losses caused, at least 150 years in jail.
The only purpose of the crash and The Great Recession was to put in place the necessary conditions of The Crash at the time The New Forces had decided to trigger it. According to my computation had he acted otherwise The Crash, which was unavoidable, would have happen at a much later date.
In fact we know with a great precision when Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke learned about the sub prime mess:
He took office on 1st February 2006.
When he took office the target was 4.5%; he increased them up to 5.25% with the intetion of inverting the yield curve sufficiently in order to create the Crash (see below The Puzzle of the Dyamic of a Crash.) on 29th June 2006. On 17th August 2006 he stopped to increase the rates. It is very difficult or almost impossible to time the Crash so Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke increased the rates till he was sure he had reached his goal. So he has learned that his objective was reached between 29th June 2006 and 17th August 2006.
This is only part of my case against Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke.
The fact that Prof. Paul Robin Krugman, Nobel Prize of economy and Professor Nouriel Roubini alias 'Dr. Doom' support his nomination in January makes me wonder about their motives.
When the Bubble Bursts we will be in a Keynes' Liquidity Trap and in a Deep Depression.
"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
...
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction,and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton
The Economic Consequences of the Peace.
pp. 235-248.
1919
No monetary or fiscal policy will pull the World out of The Deep Depression.
Di Zeit: "Can the right monetary and fiscal policy keep the US out of a recession?"
Alan Greenspan: "Probably not. Global forces can now override most anything that monetary and fiscal policy can do. Long-term real interest rates have significantly more impact on the core of economic activity than the individual actions of nations. Central banks have increasingly lost their capacity to influence the longer end of the market. Two to three decades, ago central banks were dominant throughout the maturity schedule. Thus, the more important question is the direction of long-term real interest rates."
Chairman Alan Greenspan
The Great Irony of Success.
ZEIT online, 30tn January 2008
The Puzzle of The Crash
Disclosure: long Bonds, Stocks, Minerals
The Crash Puzzle.
Annuit Cœptis.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Dialed 411,
Hold on, we will be shortly answering your call!
In fluid dynamics, turbulence or turbulent flow is a fluid regime characterized by chaotic, stochastic property changes. This includes low momentum diffusion, high momentum convection, and rapid variation of and velocity in space and time.It owns most of the discontinuous and chaotic properties of a Market Crash and of a Keynes' Liquidity Trap.
The Crash Puzzle.It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -
March 14tn, 1879 – April 18tn, 1955
Some people, having read a previous version of that article told me that it was not intelligible or that was trying to scare people.
I hence decided to rewrite it.
I am not trying to scare people, I am just telling facts. To tell the truth, I am telling only part of the facts.
A more extensive description of the truth will be described in The Tract Pro Bono. And that will be scary, in retrospect!
Central Bank Panel Discussion.
To the International Monetary Conference.
Beijing, People's Republic of China
(via satellite)
6th June 2005.
Have they insufficient roots in the motives
Are the interests which they will thwart stronger and more obvious than those which they will serve? I do not attempt an answer in this place. It would need a volume of a different character from this one to indicate even in outlinethe practical measures in which they might be gradually clothed. But if the ideas are correct—an hypothesis on which the author himself must necessarily base what he writes—it would be a mistake, I predict,
At the present moment people are unusually expectant of a more fundamental diagnosis; more particularly ready to receive it;
But apart from this contemporary mood, the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood.Indeed the world is ruled by little else.
Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.
Emperors and armies come and go; but unless they leave new ideas in their wake, they are of passing historic consequence.
I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, immediately, but after a certain interval; for in the field of economic and political philosophy there are not many who are influenced by new theories after they are twenty-five or thirty years of age, so that the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply to current events are not likely to be the newest.
But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests,
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton Z"L
June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory.
Chapter 24: Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy
Toward Which the General Theory Might Lead, Chapter V.
Friday, 13tn December 1935
The part in bold was added by Chairman Alan Greenspan in his speech at the Adam Smith Memorial Lecture, Kirkcaldy, Scotland February 6th 2005.
Before you read this article you need to read again these quotes
as you didn't yet get their full substance.
For myself it took 15 years. If it takes you ten minutes you will have outsmarted me by a lot!
The purpose of the ideas I develop here and in The Tract Pro Bono are meant to thwart these "New Forces".
Those New Forces intend to generate The Crash.
I developed a system which empowers people to protect
from consequences of The Crash and even profit from it.
The system is as simple as I could possibly do. But there are some limits.
the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience."
The popular version:
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler."
14 March 1879 – 18 April 1955
On the Method of Theoretical Physics.
The Herbert Spencer Lecture, Delivered at Oxford.
10th June 1933
This article is based on researches presented ine The Tract Pro Bono.
Using a novel model of the shape of the yield curve It solves most of the puzzles of macro economy among which, Growth, Unemployment, Under Development, International Division of Labour, Business Cycles, Stagflation, Greenspan Conundrum, The Price of Oil and Gold, Deflation, Keynes' Liquidity Trap, Asset Price Bubbles, Irrational Exuberance,
Market Crashes & Economic Depression.
It proves that, accelerated by the previous period of Quantitative Easing, after a short period of exceptionally good economic conditions and Irrational Exuberance, which will inflate the Mother of the Bubbles, we will have a Keynes' Liquidity Trap, The Crash and The Deep Depression.
It shows that no fiscal or monetary policy,
will get the world out of The Deep Depression.
It shows that given a set of conditions
a "random shock" would cause The Crash.
To be sure, those conditions will be met on Friday, 18tn September 2009
I conclude that These New Forces intend to cause a Market Crash on
Friday, 18tn September 2009:
04:11 PM New York Time.
09:11 PM London Time.
11:11 PM Jerusalem Time.
Reminder: Friday September 18tn, 2009
is quadruple witching on the US financial Markets!
As they say on Wall Street sell at Roch Hashana buy at Kippur!
Friday, 18tn September 2009 is also Eid ul-Fitr.
411 is 4th of November (Europeans write the day and then the month)
the 14th anniversary of the death of Yitzhak Rabin Z"L.
The Market in Tel Aviv and Muslim Countries being closed on Fridays
The Crash there would be on Sunday, 19th October ,
the 22nd anniversary of the Crash of 1987.
Rosh Hashana is the first day of the first month of the year 5,770.
770 was an important number for the fourth Chabad-Lubavitch Rebbe:
Menachem Mendel Schneerson Z"L (April 5, 1902 OS – June 12, 1994 NS), known as the Lubavitcher Rebbe or just the Rebbe amongst his hasidim, was a prominent hasidic rabbi who was the seventh and last Rebbe (spiritual leader) of the Chabad Lubavitch movement. He was fifth in a direct paternal line to the third Chabad-Lubavitch Rebbe, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneersohn Z"L. Great Economists don't die they reach faster The Nash Equilibrium. From the time being there they don't have a football team.
In 1950, upon the death of his father-in-law, Rabbi Yosef Yitzchok Schneersohn Z"L, he assumed the leadership of Chabad Lubavitch. He led the movement until his death in 1994, greatly expanding its worldwide activities and founding a network of institutions (as of 2006, in 70 countries) to spread Orthodox Judaism among the Jewish people,
with the stated goal of Jewish unity.
What Does Quadruple Witching Mean?
A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. This is similar to the triple witching hour, except that the quadruple witching hour sees also the expiry of SSFs. Quadruple witching days occur on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
Although index futures and options generally share simultaneous expirations on the third Friday of every month, quadruple witching days only occur on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. The last hour of these trading days, from 3:00 to 4:00 PM EST, is referred to as the quadruple witching hour.
On quadruple witching days, and especially during quadruple witching hours, many investors attempt to unwind their positions in their futures and options contracts before the contracts expire. This activity frequently includes repurchasing contracts and closing out other positions meant to hedge against these contracts.
Why It Matters:
Quadruple witching days are usually accompanied by considerable volatility in stock and derivative prices, as well as increased trading volume. As a result, investors can anticipate and plan for the potential effects of these relatively turbulent trading days. because of the slope of the yield curve a small random shock will cause it to normalize discontinuously and a The Crash will develop.
Attention: The Crash will come after the witching hour when financial Markets will have behaved in an irrationally exuberant way and will have raised considerably: The Mother of All the Bubbles.
Because of the obvious and immediate menaces
I am organizing a counter attack.
Its purpose is not to avoid The Crash something I believe is impossible.
I mean to protect the assets of The People and
insure them against The Deep Depression.
Double checking my conclusion is easy: it took me 15 years, a deep understanding of financial markets, economy, Qu'ran, Torah, The Book of Revelation, The Book of Daniel, The works of Adam Smith, of John Maynard Keynes, Alan Greenspan encryption system, Knowledge of Chabad Hassidut, of Hebrew, Latin, English, French, Guematria. Some basics understanding of genetics, being relatively poor and suffering of bipolar disorder (in order to understand the nature of Irrational Exhuberance and Deep Depression.).
I give you a free hint: if is written in the One Dollar Bill. Remember you must reach to something conclusive before
Friday, September 18tn 2009 at 4:11 PM EST. Good luck!
This article is not meant to terrorise The People but the New Forces and those who associates with them.
To be sure, the stupidity of The New Forces and of those who helped them voluntarily or unwillingly in order to make a few more dollars is without limits.
March 14th, 1879 – April 18th, 1955
Can the Crash been stopped or can the New Forces change their mind?
I don't believe The Crash can be stopped,
the process is at a non return point.
I will do nothing to try to stop it. In fact my plan was to trigger it before as to catch them unprepared. G-d and Alan Greenspan didn't let me do that although Alan Greenspan, I am sure, did contemplate the possibility.
"But I am also increasingly persuaded that governments and central banks could not have importantly altered the course of the boom either.
To do so, they would have had to induce a degree of economic contraction sufficient to nip the budding euphoria. I have seen no evidence, however, that electorates in modern democratic societies would tolerate such severity in macroeconomic policy to combat a prospective problem that might not even materialise. Periodic surges of euphoria and fear are manifestations of deep-seated aspects of human nature, and realistically there is little that governments or central banks have been able to do to divert or defuse them."
Alan Greenspan
The Age of Turbulence
In retrospect I am glad they didn't as my victory will be celebrated by both an Islamic and Jewish holyday.
The Crash is the result of a careful plan established years ago. For the New Forces it is a once in a millenium opportunity, I have no reason to believe they will back up even if they knew that their chance of success is 0.01%. They believe they are sent by G-d, they hear voices in the air: they are simply not connected any more with reality.
To be sure, I promise that The Crash will take place
on the said date, at the said time.
I am offering a free insurance against the New Forces. That insurance is free and takes away nothing from you.
If you don't take it, I will have to conclude that
you associate with the New Forces against The People.
The People are all those who will have subcribed the free insurance.
As a Jew I, and the people working for The Yield Curve
can't kill anyone and under no circumstances.
However my mandate, as I understand it, is to condemn any one who belongs to an household that didn't take the insurance,
to stay in The Liquidity Trap for ever.
I proposes a plausible alternative solution:
my Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.
it would not be difficult to increase the stock of capital up to a point where its marginal efficiency had fallen to a very low figure.
This would not mean that the use of capital instruments would cost almost nothing, but only that the return from them would have to cover little more than their exhaustion by wastage and obsolescence together with some margin to cover risk and the exercise of skill and judgment.
In short, the aggregate return from durable goods in the course of their life would, as in the case of short-lived goods, just cover their labour-costs of production plus an allowance for risk and the costs of skill and supervision.
Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital.
Interest to-day rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain interest because capital is scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce. But whilst there may be intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of land,
An intrinsic reason for such scarcity, in the sense of a genuine sacrifice which could only be called forth by the offer of a reward in the shape of interest, would not exist, in the long run, except in the event of the individual propensity to consume proving to be of such a character that net saving in conditions of full employment comes to an
5th June 1883 – 21st April 1946
The Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory.
Chapter 24: Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy
Toward Which the General Theory Might Lead, Chapter II.
Friday, 13tn December 1935
It is more prosperous, fairer, more liberal and libertarian than Capitalism. It is free of any economic unstability.
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton Z"L
June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
The End of Laissez-Faire IV.
1926
That economy is the only one that
obeys the precept of both Qu'ran and Torah.
Because of the immediate necessity to inform The People about immediate dangers that face him, I have decided to give them The Tract Pro Bono for Free. I am sacrificing its potential revenues for good.
The Tract Pro Bono has been written for the general public. To a certain extent reading it doesn't require any prior knowledge in economy.
I am not interested by the bullshit.
Table of Content.
Preface.
Introduction.
Strategy for The Crash.
The Prudent Strategy.
A must for everybody.
The Intrepid Strategy.
Necessites a basic knowledge of financial Markets.
The Puzzle of the Dynamic of a Crash:
Necessites some knowledge of economy and financial Markets,
notably the definition of a yield curve.
Yield Curve.
Irrational Exuberance.
Greenspan Conundrum.
Discontinuity.
Low Risk Premia.
Get Up and Dance, Twist... and Shout.
Take the On Line Insurance for Free: Type and Register.
A must for everybody.
What If you Called 411 and The Crash Answered?
E Pluribus Unum
Annuit Cœptis.
Sir Ben Shalom Bernanke & Sir Alan Greenspan Dialed 411,
Hold on, we will be shortly answering your call!
The Age of Turbulence.
More »My Yield Curve Calls The Crash for 918 @ 2111 IST
In fact My Yield Curve has discovered on August, 19tn 2009 that Alan Greenspan had booby trapped the Fed and with his nefarious friends was blackmailing Ben Shalom Bernanke SR in to conducing a monetary policy he disapproved of.
I am officially extending him the proposal to manage our Credit Free currency. He is, from now on, under my personal protection. This is valid whatever he decides.
However he should know that, whatever he does, nothing can avoid The Crash now and it is better to work on an alternative solution rather than being under pressure and fight a war no one can win.
Your call to 911 have been received. We are on our way!
My Yield Curve Calls The Crash for 918 @ 2111 IST
For those who know what it is Friday 28th, September is quadruple witching on US Financial Markets.
Till Then The Sky is Blue!
Disclosure: Long Bonds, Long Minerals, Long Stocks.