Shalom Hamou's  Instablog

Abstract:

As I showed in The Tract, the Liquidity Trap with its Crash and the following depression can't be avoided. As there is no way out, I had to imagine a plausible alternnative solution: The Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.

This paragraph is about the preliminaries necessary to its implementation.

Assumption:

I have proved in my Tract: The Age of Turbulence: Plea for a New World Economic Order., that falling in the Liquidity Trap is the inevitable ominous fate of the credit based economy and that nothing can be done to prevent it or to get out of it in the short run.

I don't know when the Crash will come and I believe no one does. The only thing I know with certainty it is that it will come.

As I am seeing that the Asset Price Bubble is fast inflating, that the measures of perceived risks are fast decreasing and that economic conditions are improving: all of that necessarily precedes the Liquidity Trap:

I have elaborated a strategy that tries determines from a probabilist point of view what conditions will be met when it will come: Preparing for The Crash, The Age of Turbulence. However it is is only probabilist:
 

I had to design a New World Economic Order in order to preserve our economic well being: The Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.

My Credit Free, Free Market Economy will use, a credit free currency. That currency will take an electronic form.

In order to participate in my new economy you will have to have an account with our emission institute.

Register Now for the Credit Free Currency:

To that order you must, before the crash, register with me a banknote of €5. It will be a valid tender for an account with our emission institute.

Its unique Serial Number will be your account number, the banknote your title of ownership.

The registered banknote is a legal tender for a right to participate in our Credit Free Economy.

Before you ask: the reason I don't use the dollar is that a same serial number is used on several different banknotes. I can't use it as an identifier.

Registering the banknote is known in game theory as a cheap talk. It allows the players, without engaging them in anyway, to coordinate their  intentions and actions and reach faster their optimal behaviour. In our case to implement faster our economy.

Those who will register before The Crash will have the option of rapidly enjoying a prosperous, stable free market economy.

Those who won't have registered before The Crash will irretrievably have lost that option and will have to stay in the Liquidity Trap and Economic Depression for a few decades.

Privacy & Individual Freedom:

I very much value privacy and individual freedom. Your Serial Number doesn't say anything about you. I hence will have no mean of invading your privacy or mingling with your inndividual freedom.

I won't be able to assist any security agency even if they take my data against my will.

I can't discriminate notably based on age, health, sex, sexual preference, race, religion, country, country of origin or political ideology.

Who Should Register:

One banknote must be registered by household.

An household in any group of person that manage their budget together and that live under the same roof.

For example an orphan that lives in an institution is an household by himself. If he lives in a foster home he belongs to the household he lives in.

If a child lives alternatively with his mother and his father, he will chose to what household he belongs.

Preserve Your Economic Rights:

In that new economy all your rights will be linked to that banknote. These are the security precautions you must take:

Never show your bank note to anyone.

Don't tell its serial number to anyone.

Don't tear it (the two serial numbers must appear on your banknote in order to be a valid tender.).

Don't destroy it.

Don't give it.

Don't lose it.

Keep it in a safe and secret place.

If you don't own it anymore for any reason, register another one.

Enter Your €5 in The Crash Register:

In order to register your banknote you just need to enter its serial number in the Cash Register.

In order to preserve your wealth you should have sold all of your long-term assets before the Crash.

Our Credit Free, Free Market Economy Will be Jump Started After the Crash if the Number of €5 in The Crash Register Is Sufficient.

It is of the Uttermost Importance That, When the Crash Comes, Which It Will Inevitably Do, we Restore as Fast as Possible the Economy by Quickly Implementing our Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy as to Minimalize the Economic Sufferings of the People. 

That will be possible only if a sufficient number of people register a banknote.

It is hence in our best common interest that we propagate these ideas as much as we can.

Talk to your family, to your friends, to your business associates.

To that order I am building redundant networks. Grow the Networks!

   

"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.

Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

Enterprise only pretends to itself to be mainly actuated by the statements in its own prospectus, however candid and sincere. Only a little more than an expedition to the South Pole, is it based on an exact calculation of benefits to come.

Thus if the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die;—though fears of loss may have a basis no more reasonable than hopes of profit had before."

John Maynard Keynes, 1^st Baron Keynes of Tilton
June 5^th, 1883 – 21^st April 1946
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
Chapter 12: The State of Long-Term Expectation,
Paragraph VII.
13^tn December 1935

€5 Can't Buy You Love But It Can Buy You an Economy!

All of This Stays True Until the

Poor Becomes Richer Relatively to the Rich.
It Will be Proved by The Crash.

My Political Orientation
According to Nolan Chart Survey! As Liberal as John Maynard Keynes!
As Libertarian as Friedrich August von Hayek!

Extreme Economic Conditions Call for Radical Solutions.
The Provocative & Controversial Innovation
Since John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek.

Read the Publisher Agreement.

The Tract will be available just in time for September 17^tn, 2009

I will then retire it from the Internet.

Buy The Tract Now.

© 1994-2009 Shalom P. Hamou.

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Executive Summary:

The market Crash comes with low long-term yields, a deeply inverted yield curve and very low risk spreads. Hence before of the Crash we must have necessarily a bout of high level of Irrational Exuberance and global euphoria [Confer Chapter III. Greenspan Conundrum and Bernanke Global Saving Glut. Paragraph 3: Bubbles & Bursts. Chapter II. The Liquidity Trap: A Theoretical Curiosity. Paragraph 2: The Economic Conditions That Precede a Liquidity Traps.] No macro economic figure and no measure of risk can help us foresee the crash. Because of the fantastic amount of liquidity in the system, I expect the inflation of the Mother of the Bubbles. 

What I call the strategy is long Stocks,  Treasuries, Minerals and spread Treasuries/Corporate Bonds. 

What I call minerals are Crude Oil, Base Metals and Precious Metals.

I am long the strategy for 25% of my allowance on any time TYX< 46.00. I am stopping the strategy for TYX> 46.30.

I short Minerals when TYX> 46.30

In order to measure the exhuberance of the Market is is imporatnt to follow the spread Treasuries/Corporate Bonds.

I increase the invested % of my allowance according to individual Market key points.

Stocks:

SP500 Cash and Stocks: Stop Loss:  972.40.

Short-Term Key Points:  940.16    946.2    956.23    966.26    969.36    972.46    982.49    992.52    998.56

Bonds:

Key Points: 34.92    35.99    37.93    38.08    39.65    40.93    41.56    42.64   43.64    43.72    44.06    44.65    44.8    45.04    45.14    45.48    46.02    46.11    46.56    47.64.

Stop Loss: 46.30 

Oil Future:

Key Points: 65.52    66.48    67.74    68.8    68.99    69.18    69.18    70.53    74.7    76.28

Yesterday I Have reentered the Strategy at the opening of Markets and  TYX = 45.85.  I made money on TBonds, a little money on Spread Corporate/Treasuries, made a little money on Stocks and took a beating on Minerals. This is the advantage of being diversified in 4 Markets and starting with a small position and increasing the position as the Market confirms my trend.

I expect a short fall of TYX when the 5 Years Treasury notes results are published at 13:00.

I time the crash with the yield on USTBonds getting at 3.5605%.

The crash will be later then I previously anticipated. However I expect that timing it will be easier.

In case of change in the Strategy, I will twit:

Except in the Case of an Emergency
I never twit more than once a day!

All of This Stays True Until the Poor Becomes Richer Relatively to the Rich.