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Shane Blackmon

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  • Through The Looking Glass: Whiting Trust II In The Land Of $75 Oil [View article]
    Happy to read your next article. Here's the thing with WHX/WHZ... it might only be worth $4.60 at $65 oil... however WHX nearing it's death next year still trades at outrageous values. THe reason is simple, dumb retail money LOVE that dividend yield without doing more work. So if WHZ is worth $4.60/share, it probably will trade at 1.5-2x that permanently for years to come. Retail sure loves their 15-30% dividend yields lol.

    Anyways, i was just doing work on the name this past week since oil dumped. Not my favorite name in the world, will probably never buy it.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Through The Looking Glass: Whiting Trust II In The Land Of $75 Oil [View article]
    I wrote on WHX and WHZ in the past... in fact i broke the back of WHX in July 2012. You need to do a real model.
    I just did math on the back of my hand, and find that at the same Nat gas price and $52 oil (which you say the trust is worth zero at that level)... i get $5.1M in dividend (from last 10q), which would be .25/share dividend. Definitely doesn't value the trust at zero.

    That's simple math, the costs go down as oil goes down... bc some of those costs are taxes that decrease obviously as oil prices decrease.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZCorp: No Longer Among My Holdings [View article]
    Nice article. Doing research on the company since finding out they got a Subpoena in their 10-K in relation to Cohen and Madison Park.

    Looks like the author here, was smart in identifying Cohen as a bad apple.
    Nov 26, 2014. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    ummm bud, this is investing/trading...
    I hope no one dies from a disease, but i don't "hope" on investing/trading strategies, that's how you go broke.
    Mar 14, 2014. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    Took 3 years to get 140ish patients, and you think they are going to get 700 more and complete the study in 2017? I have better chances with the lottery than that happening.

    Sure sounding like 2020 before anything from Phase III trial.

    Also, who wants to buy this dog now, even if the drug is going to be successful. This is where money goes to die! 6 offerings in the last 2.5 years. SIX!
    So by 2020, you'll be diluted 12 more times???

    Biotech is about investing in definable catalysts... and nobody wants to hold for 3-6 years without a catalyst.

    You talk all the positives about CVM, and the potential of the drug... just to drag people into this name. However, you don't think something is up if they didn't advance Phase II into Phase III quicker? and all this based on 19 patients...

    I'm a trader, sure this will offer good trades both short and long... but this is uninvestable, IT IS tradeable.
    Mar 13, 2014. 06:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trading Characteristics Of Market Manias [View article]
    I've been a critic of a lot of bubblicious stocks. PLUG, FCEL, BLDP will top out by Tuesday at the latest. FCEL eps monday night will shock the bulls and stop this rally in its tracks.

    The mania is here, just reading all the comments on this article and it's absolutely insane. People have clouded judgement. The first time these go down 10% 2 days in a row... reality will set back in.

    PLUG is not a billion dollar company and gets hyped once every 5 or so years... time will prove this move is simply a mania.

    It's never "different this time" That's just what the bulls say when they have no other reasons to explain the move in the stock.

    Retail investors think that PLUG will go back to $1000 since it's just $8 now. However , their share count is so much larger now than it was back then due to DILUTION.

    Bulls make money, bears make money... the pigs who don't take profits will get slaughtered. They always do.
    Mar 9, 2014. 07:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will History Repeat In The Market? [View article]
    Not quite right... they raised the money at $3.00 and warrants are extra possibly down the road, they exercise at $4.00
    They didn't raise capital at $2.60/share

    "Plug was able to raise $30 million by issuing 10,000,000 shares at $2.60 per share and 4,000,000 warrants sold for $0.40 per warrant leaving the company with $46 million in cash on January 16, 2004."
    Jan 31, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Pharmaceuticals' Upcoming Trial Data Keeping Investor Interest Strong [View article]
    Q1 2014 data will likely turn into Q2, progression has been slow. April/May data likely due to enrollment process being slower than expected.
    Not as close to a catalyst as you expect.
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    nothing to leave with the lawyers when BIOD doesn't have a drug
    Dec 11, 2013. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    I would disagree... BIOD hasn't even committed to a Phase 3 trial after Phase 2 data.

    It has the opportunity to be a meaningless arrangement if the drug doesn't get developed.

    Any sales of the drug wouldnt happen till 2016 at the earliest
    Dec 11, 2013. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    It takes years to get drugs to market. The PR says "early stage" trials... so how in the world can you say "advanced stage trials?"

    Most drugs fail to ever get approved, so out of multiple trials... maybe 1 or none ever get approved for NVS. And they won't get any revenues besides clinical trials for more than 5 years. I promise you that.
    Dec 3, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    I'm not short UNIS, but i trade around moves in the name...

    You do realize this is a supply agreement for an "early-stage pipeline drugs". First, there will be VERY few sales to Novartis for years while they are in trials... then Novartis has to succeed in trials for sales to develop. It'll likely be well over 5 years before any sales of over just a few thousand dollars grows into possible "millions".

    It's another fluff PR by the CEO.
    Dec 2, 2013. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    My comment isn't based on what hasn't happened yet. It's in recognition that management has continually over promised and under delivered... back in 2010 or 2011 they talked about hundred's of millions in revenues by 2012 or 2013... that has been a pipe dream.

    Executives that promise the moon and never deliver... are likely to do the same thing in the future. Be very skeptical

    Even with this evenings news... it's a great trading stock... but long-term i have no faith in management
    Dec 2, 2013. 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife: Set To Double In 2014? [View article]
    "Even the best companies are forced to climb "walls of worry" as their shares trek ever upward and Unilife is no exception."

    You must be new to the story and haven't watched the promises be broken year after year.

    This is far from any company that is on a "best companies" list.

    Hearts will be broken again
    Dec 2, 2013. 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The GSV Capital Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    If you guys did any digging into sec filings... every company that comes public they are treated as an insider. In twtr case they have 180 day lockup period.
    Nov 9, 2013. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment