Shane Blackmon

Shane Blackmon
Contributor since: 2012
Too bad Cramer didn't say MHR would jump $2, listen to the video... the editors who wrote what he said are just plain wrong. Listen to the tape.
Happy to read your next article. Here's the thing with WHX/WHZ... it might only be worth $4.60 at $65 oil... however WHX nearing it's death next year still trades at outrageous values. THe reason is simple, dumb retail money LOVE that dividend yield without doing more work. So if WHZ is worth $4.60/share, it probably will trade at 1.5-2x that permanently for years to come. Retail sure loves their 15-30% dividend yields lol.
Anyways, i was just doing work on the name this past week since oil dumped. Not my favorite name in the world, will probably never buy it.
I wrote on WHX and WHZ in the past... in fact i broke the back of WHX in July 2012. You need to do a real model.
I just did math on the back of my hand, and find that at the same Nat gas price and $52 oil (which you say the trust is worth zero at that level)... i get $5.1M in dividend (from last 10q), which would be .25/share dividend. Definitely doesn't value the trust at zero.
That's simple math, the costs go down as oil goes down... bc some of those costs are taxes that decrease obviously as oil prices decrease.
Nice article. Doing research on the company since finding out they got a Subpoena in their 10-K in relation to Cohen and Madison Park.
Looks like the author here, was smart in identifying Cohen as a bad apple.
ummm bud, this is investing/trading...
I hope no one dies from a disease, but i don't "hope" on investing/trading strategies, that's how you go broke.
Took 3 years to get 140ish patients, and you think they are going to get 700 more and complete the study in 2017? I have better chances with the lottery than that happening.
Sure sounding like 2020 before anything from Phase III trial.
Also, who wants to buy this dog now, even if the drug is going to be successful. This is where money goes to die! 6 offerings in the last 2.5 years. SIX!
So by 2020, you'll be diluted 12 more times???
Biotech is about investing in definable catalysts... and nobody wants to hold for 3-6 years without a catalyst.
You talk all the positives about CVM, and the potential of the drug... just to drag people into this name. However, you don't think something is up if they didn't advance Phase II into Phase III quicker? and all this based on 19 patients...
I'm a trader, sure this will offer good trades both short and long... but this is uninvestable, IT IS tradeable.
John,
I've been a critic of a lot of bubblicious stocks. PLUG, FCEL, BLDP will top out by Tuesday at the latest. FCEL eps monday night will shock the bulls and stop this rally in its tracks.
The mania is here, just reading all the comments on this article and it's absolutely insane. People have clouded judgement. The first time these go down 10% 2 days in a row... reality will set back in.
PLUG is not a billion dollar company and gets hyped once every 5 or so years... time will prove this move is simply a mania.
It's never "different this time" That's just what the bulls say when they have no other reasons to explain the move in the stock.
Retail investors think that PLUG will go back to $1000 since it's just $8 now. However , their share count is so much larger now than it was back then due to DILUTION.
Bulls make money, bears make money... the pigs who don't take profits will get slaughtered. They always do.
Not quite right... they raised the money at $3.00 and warrants are extra possibly down the road, they exercise at $4.00
They didn't raise capital at $2.60/share
"Plug was able to raise $30 million by issuing 10,000,000 shares at $2.60 per share and 4,000,000 warrants sold for $0.40 per warrant leaving the company with $46 million in cash on January 16, 2004."
Q1 2014 data will likely turn into Q2, progression has been slow. April/May data likely due to enrollment process being slower than expected.
Not as close to a catalyst as you expect.
nothing to leave with the lawyers when BIOD doesn't have a drug
I would disagree... BIOD hasn't even committed to a Phase 3 trial after Phase 2 data.
It has the opportunity to be a meaningless arrangement if the drug doesn't get developed.
Any sales of the drug wouldnt happen till 2016 at the earliest
Restino,
It takes years to get drugs to market. The PR says "early stage" trials... so how in the world can you say "advanced stage trials?"
Most drugs fail to ever get approved, so out of multiple trials... maybe 1 or none ever get approved for NVS. And they won't get any revenues besides clinical trials for more than 5 years. I promise you that.
I'm not short UNIS, but i trade around moves in the name...
You do realize this is a supply agreement for an "early-stage pipeline drugs". First, there will be VERY few sales to Novartis for years while they are in trials... then Novartis has to succeed in trials for sales to develop. It'll likely be well over 5 years before any sales of over just a few thousand dollars grows into possible "millions".
It's another fluff PR by the CEO.
My comment isn't based on what hasn't happened yet. It's in recognition that management has continually over promised and under delivered... back in 2010 or 2011 they talked about hundred's of millions in revenues by 2012 or 2013... that has been a pipe dream.
Executives that promise the moon and never deliver... are likely to do the same thing in the future. Be very skeptical
Even with this evenings news... it's a great trading stock... but long-term i have no faith in management
"Even the best companies are forced to climb "walls of worry" as their shares trek ever upward and Unilife is no exception."
You must be new to the story and haven't watched the promises be broken year after year.
This is far from any company that is on a "best companies" list.
Hearts will be broken again
If you guys did any digging into sec filings... every company that comes public they are treated as an insider. In twtr case they have 180 day lockup period.
Congrats! you missed one major fact though. In the world of the "real" stock market, not the "efficient market theory", Closed-End funds typically trade at a major discount to NAV. $GSVC and $SVVC typically trade at 20-30% discounts to NAV when no major IPO's are coming out. Now that the TWTR catalyst is over, all those investors are selling out and moving on to the next thing.
Given the NAV might be as high as $16/share... i can easily make a case that GSVC should be trading at 20-30% discount which is 11.2-12.8/share.
Some close-end funds do trade at major premiums... but thats only the ones that pay large dividends and trick retail investors into overpaying.
Oh don't forget, you have like 5% annual fees to pay with GSVC.
If you own, enjoy the slope back down off this tremendous run.
You realize if data for CIC is done year-end 2014... NDA filed in 1H 2015, 74 days to get a pdufa date, which is 10 months later, you are now in middle 2016, launch 6 months later, which puts you in 2017
Long long long timeline.
Plus Phase 2 right now is taking much longer than expected, by about 4 months right now. I fully expect CIC phase 3 would run over too, bc they are rejecting a lot of candidates.
I've been a bull on sgyp for a year now. My enthusiasm has been tempered by a slower than expected launch by irwd and delays by sgyp. Their phase II trial is taking longer than expected by 3 months. And your info on CIC is off. Trial results will be 1h 2015, nda late 2015 and pdufa 2h 2016. Burning time for a long time in this name, better places to be.
I'm not sure you are understanding what i am saying...
Everyone jumped ship from Lazard, the analyst at Lazard is the current analyst at FBR. It's the same person, making the same call at a different firm.
He initiated on over a dozen names today, the same names he covered at Lazard.
On Aug 15th, same analyst initiated with same PT of $11/share... moved from Lazard to FBR... it's kind of old news.
Good luck to all.
only 2% short interest... so it's in a place where shorts aren't enticed to short yet and longs are just going along for the ride and believing in Bezos' vision.
It needs to have a parabolic run over 450 probably before it's time to start a short
BIOD achieves positive Phase II data... i continue to think this can be a $10 stock in the near future. Hope everybody is long and happy!
I was thinking the same thing... amazing how people can just model stuff and people believe whatever is written down. Investors will believe whatever 'pie in the sky' that is out there.
I do have to say this is probably a great short. I put it on the shelf about 3-4 months ago, bc we're in a bull market. But this is one stock to stay away from.
Having done work on STON, it's amazing what some companies are able to get away with.
Happy trading, nice article.
Funny, these have finally started to trade more in-line of where they should. Since this article CFP is down 10%.. while S&P500 is over 16%
Yeah MNKD is a massive momentum, short squeeze play. No telling how high this thing can go before phase III data... reminds me of CLSN runup (not saying it's going to $1).
BIOD should see more sympathy bids in the coming weeks. The story here is compelling if you get rid of your old notions of the company 3 years ago and just take the facts as they are now.
As is the case with BIOD-123, its faster acting than Humalog in early trials.
These drug companies are very interested to find drugs like BIOD-123 because patent expiration is coming for Humalog, Novolog and Apidra. They would like to offset those lost sales with a slightly better product.
But that is a long ways off.
The current catalyst that will take shares higher are positive Phase II data in September.
Nobody has used inhalable insulin... we'll see what the FDA says, and then what the consumer says.
4.25 x 3 = 12.75... i said "well over $10/share"
IRWD disappointing launch will make it hard for SGYP to rally right now.
I agree a sale is likely... but i think its unlikely before another round of data in early 2014. Why does somebody want to plop down $1B, 2 years before a drug approval?
i dont daytrade SGYP... when i buy, i buy for months at a time like i did last year. Unfortunately i bought at $4.50 avg and held for 7 months before i got the payoff