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Shane Brett

 
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  • Australian Dollar Decline Set To Continue [View article]
    "sound public finances" make no difference whatsoever if a major systemic bank collapses.
    Look at Ireland - its government debt was at low Australian levels (below 30%) in 2007 (and was the second lowest in Europe).
    As soon as the overvalued property market seized up and the main Irish banks collapsed under the weight of bad property debt, the Irish government had to step into backstop its banks. Now its debt is close to 130% and 1 in 9 people lost their jobs in the economic crash.
    Furthermore Australia's terms of trade are horrendous and - crucially - its main banks are all horribly reliant of foreign funding to keep the property bubble hamster wheel turning.
    As Ireland found to its cost this fickle short-term foreign funding can disappear in a heartbeat leaving acountries banks swimming with sharks but without any pants.
    May 28 04:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Mortgage default rates are always lower until a country experiences major property price falls. Then they increase sharply.

    What convinced me that Australia was majorly uncompetitive was 2 years ago being charged $3 for a local mango in Sydney....a few weeks later I bought 2 on Sainsbury's in London for 66p!

    The economic parallels to Ireland circa 2009 are frightening.
    Apr 24 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell The Australian Dollar [View article]
    If I had a chunk of AUD I would be moving it into USD. I believe the AUD will be below parity with the USD for a couple of years - until commodity shortages reappear when the world economy starts to grow more strongly.
    May 16 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words.
    I just opened a short position for AUD/USD at1.03 and a long position for EUR/AUD at 1.27.
    I am happy to keep these open for 12 months+ and expect to close them AUD/USD reaches south of 90 cents & EUR/AUD hits 1.40.
    I expect we will see both of those rates in the next 18 months.
    May 6 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next For Europe? [View article]
    Thanks for your feedback.

    There are certainly unknowns out there in Europe. A wheel could easily come off the Spanish economy or an Italian Debt Auction could fail.

    Regarding Germany - while I wouldn't see a major change in direction, the German people are sick of being the bogeymen of Europe while also footing the bills. Their leaders haven't told them that they are part of the problem - by saving so much and refusing to spend. The periphery of Europe went on a debt binge when Germanys savings were recycled.

    However the new "Alternative for Germany" (AFD) party has just being formed and they want to leave the Euro completely. This is an impoprtant development. Opinion Pools show them at 4%. If they managed 5% they would be allowed to enter the German parliment (the threshold is 5%) and would potentially hold the balance of power after the September election.

    It is a small but distinct possibility.
    Apr 25 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell The Australian Dollar [View article]
    This is another interesting article this week on the slow-down in the Australian economy and its impact on pushing down the value of the AUD.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Apr 23 05:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Economy In 2013: 5 Key Economic Trends [View article]
    Many thanks for your comment.

    I do think we are facing a long-term rise in most minerals,
    metals and foodstuffs and the current weak global economic growth represents a pause in their upward trajectory.

    The reasons I feel this way can be summarized here;-

    http://bit.ly/ZhNkp1

    This is a white paper on the commodity Supercycle my consultancy published last year.

    However specifically regarding Phosphorous I believe the Moroccan monopoly on high quality product will lead to surging prices in the years ahead.

    Also, I think Silver will bounced back this year. The largest Silver mine in the US just got knocked out of action for the next few years.

    However I do take your point, unless there is major climatic volatility this year it may be 2014 and beyond before the Supercycle reasserts itself.
    Apr 23 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Economy In 2013: 5 Key Economic Trends [View article]
    Many thanks for your comment.

    I do think we are facing a long-term rise in most minerals,
    metals and foodstuffs and the current weak global economic growth represents a pause in their upward trajectory.

    The reasons I feel this way can be summarized here;-

    http://bit.ly/ZhNkp1

    This is a white paper on the commodity supercycle my consultancy published last year.

    However specifically regarding Phosphorous I believe the Moroccan monopoly on high quality product will lead to surging prices in the years ahead.

    Also, I think Silver will bounced back this year. The largest Silver mine in the US just got knocked out of action for the next few years.

    However I do take your point, unless there is major climatic volatility this year it may be 2014 and beyond before the Supercycle reasserts itself.
    Apr 23 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Down 99% Against Gold Since Great Depression [View article]
    Thanks everyone for your feedback and thoughts.
    Apr 21 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Gilded Age For Hedge Funds? [View article]
    Hi Guys thank you for your comments! Shane
    Apr 9 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds And The Global Economic Crisis: Willing Culprits Or Easy Scapegoats? [View article]
    Thanks Chris for reading and for your great links. I really enjoyed the article explaining what hedge funds do!
    Apr 4 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds And The Global Economic Crisis: Willing Culprits Or Easy Scapegoats? [View article]
    Good point. I do indeed blame the banks for most of our recent economic problems, but I would agree with you that proper regulation could have stopped them. That is why I mentioned the repeal of the Glas Stegall Act. Many thanks for your comment.
    Apr 3 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Hedge Funds' Gilded Age? [View article]
    Thanks for your comments guys :-)
    Mar 28 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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