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Shane Jocelyn, CFA

 
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  • G20 Decides to Pursue Tougher Capital Standards [View article]
    Not an easy task indeed!

    In regards to the French and Germans....

    A fight against short term and risk taking compensation was a strong and justified theme. However, I felt it questioned the role of politicians. Is it to take objective action formed by public viewpoints (which may be prejudice), or is it to work towards what they personally think to be the best formulated result using their extended knowledge and resources? With upcoming elections, I think the latter has been ruled out.
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment Overview: Bulls Continue to Dominate [View article]
    Very interesting in regards to the reverse splits. Do you have any source for finding out when/who/which companies filed for them?

    There have been wild prices in AIG since the reverse split. I don't think that the other stocks in question will have quote as wild a price swing but it will certainly change the game!
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What if It Is a 'V' Recovery? [View article]
    In response to the upcoming mortgage applications, I doubt FHA financing will be any saviour of the housing industry. This is because some of the worst effected people in this most recent downturn are the young graduates who have to wait in line for HR inventories to clear in the form of industry professionals with years of experience under their belt. Without consistent and well paid jobs, first time buyers will not be able to lead a come back in clearing "on the market" homes.
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Rally or Crash? [View article]
    Your data point this week of wholesale inventories will be key. A lot of companies are under-stocked and under-staffed. I am worried that we may see a lift in inventory levels as well as staffing and then we see a renewed drop off after initial strength in economic data. This, coupled with a stop in stimulus may bring us into 2010 with anxious thoughts.....(???)
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Casts a Long Shadow over Economic Recovery [View article]
    One more caveat which I thought I would touch on is the fact that throughout September, a flood of graduates will be hunting careers. Competition with redundant industry professionals may mean some find themselves contributing towards higher unemployment. 250,000 in the UK and 1.2M in the US may continue to prevent that Thursday jobless claims from becoming healthy.....
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPS Surprises and Estimate Revisions Clearly Bullish; Valuation Still a Concern [View article]
    Just take into account that analyst earnings are always behind the trend. I understand that analysts will argue the case but when you chart all analysts and track the performance of the S&P, you will see a clear lagging indicator. I agree that this is a bullish sign but just caveat of where all analysts were in Q3 of 2008 or March of this year....
    Sep 7, 2009. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Risk Assets on the Verge of Melting Up? [View article]
    I agree, there will be a gradual increase in demand for higher yielding assets. When you see the 56% increase in the markets, the only thing more fearful then losing cash (as was the case last year) is the reality that everyone else makes money other then you. You will see the markets swing to extremes and now it appears that fund managers are chasing the higher yielding purchases.
    Sep 7, 2009. 08:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Solar ETFs Could Shine Brighter [View article]
    First Solar has recently got to full capacity on a big plant in Malaysia. Do you see a lot of growth coming from Asia from an industrial perspective? Do you think that the US will be a leading consumer of solar panels and what are the risks in competing renewable energy firms? Wind energy may be a dominant force in effecting the solar industry.....
    Sep 7, 2009. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Comments on the Future of HTTP-Based Streaming [View article]
    Interesting insight into the streaming video business. With over $25B in cash, do you think that AAPL is going to consider acquisitions to expand into this market? Have a look at AKAM. They specialise in this technology sector and at a market cap of $3B, they could be a definite takeover target from the likes MSFT wanting to utilise some of their cash.
    Sep 7, 2009. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There 22% Less Volume Behind the Current S&P Rally? [View article]
    Yes, sometimes you get individual stocks which are in the media and just get highlighted as something which everyone is trading. AIG and Citi appear to now be two of those stocks.....
    Aug 30, 2009. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Read the Riot Act to AIG [View article]



    On Aug 30 11:29 AM Warm_Paw wrote:

    > AIG is worthless.

    AIG may be worthless but think twice about shorting a company or calling it worthless when it has a tangible book value of $347 billion (end of 2008) and 70% of float tied up with an institution who will not sell out (for now anyway)......
    Aug 30, 2009. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trash Seems to Be King, As Lehman Shares Surge [View article]
    Some of the biggest traders focus on a company when it goes bankrupt. It is one of the most famous times a short squeeze comes into play. So many investors were short GM, they had to cover even when it was at 30 cents. It did not matter if this meant pushing the price up 25% because they probably shorted it at $10! Hard to know who is gambling with Lehman though! Its not me and that's all I care!
    Aug 30, 2009. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Natural Gas ETF: What You Need to Know [View article]
    Here is what we all need to do:

    1) Pool our cash
    2) Buy a storage unit for Nat Gas
    3) Play the contango ourselves

    Quit pumping millions into UNG and rip the spread on the Dec contract! Meant in a light hearted way! Although if anyone has friends who are liquidating a field of Nat gas storage units then pass me on their details!
    Aug 24, 2009. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be a Cautious Seller of the Yen [View article]
    With risk apatite and huge treasury supply - dont you think that this may spur a further sustained gain in the dollar against the Yen? Overseas investments by Japanese investors are mainly corporate and long term and will they sell out to get 1.43% with the BOJ 10YR? Although the Yen has been trending stronger against the Dollar, I think that there will be a reversal of trends and we will see USDJPY push higher towards 100 as traders focus on macro and fundamental economics of the countries rather then a trading perspective. Japan is about as exciting as tumbleweed in the desert with such low yielding assets....Would you agree? Even with a short term pull back, where do you see the pairing long term?
    Aug 9, 2009. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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