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Shane Jocelyn, CFA

 
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  • When States Don't Pay Their Debts [View article]
    The EU is an ideology that one can bind a group of countries together for mutual benefits. The US theology is that one can efficiently run a country by segregating geographical areas and getting run by their political electives.

    Simply put; cross borders around Europe face a barrage of cultural, linguistic, lawful and social differences. This is why there is a big difference - the Federal Government is the overruling body while the EU faces stiff resistance from the powerful countries such as the UK who like who they are and don't want to change from British to Europeans (even though you can be both).
    Jun 18 06:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Reasons to Invest in Frontier Markets and Frontier Funds [View article]
    Emerging markets contain two very different perspectives. Firstly, we have the global macro environment which is Aladdin's cave in many respects from China to Brazil.

    All investors highlight the macro side which usually pertains GDP, industrial manufacturing, demographics and related data signalling economic health. However, the investment environment is strongly segregated and when one analyses BRIC countries, everything is about as saturated as a wet sponge. Investors are clambering over each other to source the strongest deals. This is where the difference is in frontier markets. There are good deals with less investor competition giving far better value than anything in emerging markets.
    Jun 18 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bad Economic News Is Just Getting Worse [View article]
    All listed points have been flashing across the Dow Jones news ticker for the last three months and readily digested. I can assure you that its going to take a domino effect of not only bad news but WORSENING news to shred the markets like in the fall of 2008.
    Jun 17 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash Was the ETF's Debutante Ball [View article]
    When you have premium between underlying securities and funds holding those securities widen to over 20% (which is what happened), there is a severe structural flaw in the theoretical system of trading and dealing in financial assets.

    A flash crash must be prevented because the entire financial infrastructure is built on stability. With stability comes confidence and without confidence there is nothing but thin air to the bottom as has been found out!...
    Jun 17 06:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Deleveraging Is Necessary for an Economic Recovery [View article]
    This article feels outdated - just chart the TED spread and Libor and you will see that the capital markets have been relaxing credit for the past 15 months.

    There may be a differentiation between the international credit markets and California though which is where I see you are based.
    May 28 06:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Stewart on Options: Not Exactly 'Common Sense' [View article]
    Good job sir - nice to see some knowledge in regards to the options market! I've had enough of these amateurish reports on option strategies...
    May 28 05:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's the Cost of an Inflation-Free Bank Bailout? [View article]
    Inflation/deflation is likely to determine the future of the sovereign credit health. If you look at corporate borrowing in times of inflation, there is a clear advantage for the borrower as their debt load inflates away but in regards to governments, they need a constant flow from the capital markets and in an inflationary environment rates are likely to rocket marking it close to impossible to service and roll over debt.
    May 27 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Should Have Seen a Huge Rebound in Employment by Now [View article]
    No matter what anyone says, all crisis' are unique. Looks like this one is a jobless one for the time being...
    May 27 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Closes Below 10,000 as Worries Mount [View article]
    Think of it this way - we have gone well over a year going straight up without even a whiff that there would be a correction.

    It is interesting that in 2008, politicians called all the shots by dishing out TARP but now the markets are in complete control as governments try to appease and calm investors of debt ridden countries.
    May 27 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Returning Demand Rescue the Oil Refiners? [View article]
    It would be useful to assess drilling costs and spreads between gasoline and crude. These are two factors which will dominate the refinery business for the upcoming decade.
    May 27 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Contagion Spreads - Is This Rational? [View article]
    A bid to cover ratio of 1.1 is evidence that German bund yields have not been bought because people think they are a good buy, they have been bought as you rightly pointed out because there is fear and people think this is the best alternative to cash under the mattress. I would not be surprised to see a reallocation as stability returns.
    May 27 02:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gross: Is It Possible to Get Out of Debt Crisis by Increasing Debt? [View article]
    Growing your way out of debt means higher GDP growth which results in more hawkish central bankers and/or inflation. With this comes higher rates and more expensive servicing of debt. What Greece needs is boring stable growth where one can pave a way for normality.
    May 27 02:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has the Panic Abated? [View article]
    The interesting thing about the VIX is that the option chains are in a state of backwardation which is very unusual for an options market. Usually time value will trump other factors but in this case, it shows that the market is expecting lower fear over the next couple of months.
    May 27 02:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where the Markets Stand; Where They're Headed [View article]
    I would expect an article like this to be accompanied by a disclosure that you are short everything?
    May 26 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What About Dow 20K? [View article]
    The catalyst for this panic has been the speed. Less than one month to wipe out 10%. My expectation is that when there is some stability the fear will reverse to having people who are too scared not to make money in a rising market and the rise will be just as fast.
    May 26 08:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
224 Comments
432 Likes