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Shane Jocelyn, CFA

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  • 5 Reasons to Remain Bullish [View article]
    I think the question should be; "What are the reasons to be bearish and are they justified?" instead of highlighting reasons to be bullish.
    May 26 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rumors Driving the Euro [View article]
    The ECB are unilaterally agreed that a crisis exists even if its severity and manageability are mixed at best and cutting would not be in contrast to the current economic outlook. And right now - with a arguable overextended drop, I would not be surprised to see pull back bulls using this as good enough reasoning.
    May 25 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking at Markets From the Furry Side: 'We Won’t Get Fooled Again'? [View article]
    This resembles the Asian financial crisis - a detrimental change in the economies of South East Asia after an overextended credit bubble and current account deficit at the end of the 1990's which DID affect Wall Street but at the end of the day, the global economy was not Asia and Asia not the global economy.

    The Thai Baht devalued 50%, the Indonesian Rupiah fell 90% but America, the world bank and the IMF brought the suffering economies up - not that they brought the world down.
    May 21 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Panic? [View article]
    I have read four articles this morning and all of them say that the S&P is going to experience a sharp up-trend rally because of the oversold short term bias. Markets don't usually move the way in which everyone expects...
    May 21 06:58 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Need the Merkley-Levin Amendment [View article]
    You need Principle based reform. You are not going to solve the problem by changing words in a pamphlet - you need to change the mindset of the managers and traders behind the actual banking landscape. The FSA seem to be the only people who have realised this in the UK.
    May 20 06:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading an Emotion-Driven Market [View article]
    I think electronic trading has perhaps replaced emotional irrational trading. The 1929 crash was fuelled by emotion - last weeks fall were apparitions of those who lost everything in previous crashes having been reincarnated as machines and quant funds.
    May 18 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Overbought / Euro Oversold [View article]
    A paradoxical concept that I have realised is that everyone is very bearish on their domestic currency. Everyone in the US despise their politicians and are saying that the Fed has printed too much and the dollar is going to fall off a cliff.

    Well - in the UK everyone thinks sterling is finished. While in Japan, a budget deficit of almost 200% debt/GDP is evidence enough to burn the Yen. Why don't we all just switch currencies - or wait... Thats what's happening!
    May 18 05:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds: A Look at the Sidelined Cash Theory [View article]
    All funding for the behemoth deficit has been done on the shorter term where yields are very low and financing is next to nothing. This is fine for now but in a years time when the yield curve begins to flatten out there will be the mother of all roll-overs which will swamp demand on 10 YR and 30 YR treasuries.

    Bid to cover ratios are at a multi decade high which shows there is still huge demand at auctions but it has not stopped treasury bonds declining. Dead on - I have been selling puts on TBT and short TLT too.
    Apr 13 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Creative Ways to Beat the Most Popular Emerging Market ETF [View article]
    You hit the nail on the head when mentioning currencies. The capital inflow and mobility on a weighted basis is certainly going to be from developed countries to emerging markets where investors and smart money will fuel and embrace risk/growth. CEW is a good way to play this if you are a long term investor looking to profit from this directional play.
    Apr 12 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palm for Sale: What's the Best Case Scenario? [View article]
    What worries me is that no company has stepped forward to offer even an interest in buying. With the stock struggling, one would think that there would be more enthusiasm for potential buyers.

    I think you should add Nokia to the list of potential candidates.
    Apr 12 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Housing Not a Bubble [View article]
    The real growth in the Chinese property market is going to come from inland cities which are growing through urbanisation at substantial growth rates.

    Cities such as Xi'an and Chengdu have ongoing population growth and stand at almost 10 million inhabitants. However, price per square foot is 20% of that in Beijing.

    The growth of any country, (or in this case province) derives straight from a low cost of living. Play housing in China but be picky in which companies you choose and which areas you get exposure to.
    Apr 12 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: Still a Drag on Economic Recovery [View article]
    Like the majority of material goods in the free world, prices are depicted by demand and supply, which in this case stems directly from the retail banking sector.

    We may not be seeing such disjointed fundamental lending as was done earlier on in the last decade but variable rates are like a worm on a hook especially for first time buyers. These low rates will soon diminish within the next two years and may well be the catalyst for the additional prophesied foreclosures if the government, banks, and most importantly the American people do not tread carefully.
    Apr 12 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Evolution of Brand Name Investing [View article]
    Too many consumers get bored with stagnated products/brands. The strongest companies are forever evolving - Nike consistently sign new marketing contracts with whoever is popular in the public sporting eye. And Apple may have the biggest evolving product ever in the form of the I-phone and the App store.
    Mar 22 06:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Maestro No More [View article]
    This story has an embedded lesson for all;

    Money is made and lost, careers start and retire but decades of hard earned reputation is the most difficult to build. And when this is accomplished, one (however big or small) pitfall can take you back to negative points.
    Mar 21 08:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Debt Resolution: So, Will the U.S. Sell Manhattan? [View article]
    Its symbolic yet and ironic sign of the times whereby the wealthiest nations contain the biggest debt loads while some of the poorest regions in Africa are in surplus. This to me is a result of how easy it is for developed countries to run up huge bills without a blink of an eye. Having lived in Ireland for most of the last decade, it was never once mentioned that the big fiscal deficit could be a hindering danger.

    I don't care what anyone says - 6.4% to finance and roll over debt for Greece is a cheap rate on a qualitative and quantitative analysis.
    Mar 19 07:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment